The future role of satcom in civil aviation

1. The future role of satcom in civil aviation ATN 2002, London, September 25th, 2002

2. Challenges for the air transport industry – 1 • 1) Capacity of overall ATM “system” limits air traffic growth: • 2015: twice as many flights as in 1997 • Already today: 30% of all delays due to capacity shortages • Yearly cost for capacity-related delays: €6.3bn • 2) Safety demands will rise with capacity increases: • Despite air traffic growth: absolute number of incidents must be kept stable or even improved • No additional airspace capacity without improved safety

3. Challenges for the air transport industry – 2 • 3) Economic pressures leading to drive for efficiencies: • Seat utilisation • Strongly linked to safety and security • Minimisation of flight times, fast turnarounds • Maximise use of all resources (runways, terminals, airspace, ATC, spectrum….) • Optimum routes • Optimum flight levels • 4) Security pressures cyclic depending on world political situation: • On-board security • Homeland security

4. Classification of aircraft communications “AirComms” Cockpit services Air Traffic Control ATC Airline Operational Communications AOC Cabin services Airline Administrative Communications AAC Airline Passenger Communications APC

5. “Aircomms” Cockpit Cabin ATS AOC AAC APC Comparison of aircraft communications Legend ATS - Air Traffic Services AOC - Airline Operational Comm’s AAC - Airline Administrative Comm’s APC - Airline Passenger Comm’s Lower message size/data volume narrow-band broadband Lower transmission delay realtime “near-realtime” n./a. Increasing integrity safety related non-safety related Increasing confidentiality all airlines airline internal Increasing public responsibility public private Higher service cost niche market mass market Increasing likelihood of service strong need market success questionable “ATM comms” “APC comms”

6. Future importance of aircraft communications • In the future, there will be more communications from and to the aircraft. • Passenger communicationsTo make flying more attractive, airlines will sooner or later offer: • Telephony (Voice, Fax, Modem, ...) • E-Mail, Internet • Multimedia, live TV, ... • Air Traffic ManagementTo increase airspace capacity and safety, much more data communications will be needed, e.g. for: • Dependent surveillance methods • Collaborative decision making • Common information network • Airline operational communications

7. Satcom for aviation • Coverage • Satellites are the only reasonable means to realise a seamless global coverage on all altitudes (incl. ground) • Issues: High density areas, coverage for high latitudes • Bandwidth • APC: satellites are the only reasonable means to provide the bandwidth required • ATM: Traditional communication means (e.g. VHF) are about to reach their capacity limits • Cost • Added value must be higher than cost

8. Satcom in APC • Today: • Inmarsat and Iridium used (mainly for voice) • High price, very low bit rate for modem connections • Under development: • Connexion, AFIS, Inmarsat IV • Very hot topic until Sept. 11th 2001, “comeback” expected • Future visions: • “Internet in the sky” (e.g. E-Mail, VPN) • Could become successful if price < 10€/flight (flat rate) • Voice communications • Could become successful if price < 2€/min (=GSM incl. roaming) • Entertainment, e.g. live TV • Success uncertain due to legal and market issues

9. Suitability of APC satcom systems for ATM • Bandwidth (+) • Bandwidth required for ATC, AOC (and AAC) is negligible compared to APC • Probability of materialisation (-) • It is not yet certain whether dedicated APC satcom systems will materialise within the next 10 years • Coverage (-) • All satcom systems for APC are GEO systems that do not provide coverage for high latitudes. • Cost (-) • Reliability and availability requirements of ATM would lead to very high investments • Service Mix (-) • Mixing safety related and non-safety related services has implications for certifiability

10. Satcom in ATM • Today, the following requirements for an ATM communications system are known: • Permanent global availability, special weight on high-density areas • Extremely high reliability • Low data rate • Often short response times • “Party line” capabilities • “Air-to-air” capabilities • Ways to attack the cost issue: • “Design-to-cost” • Reasonable business concept on the other hand • Attractive service mix • Public involvement justified

11. Satellite-based CNS • Satellites allow integration of navigation and communications and thus (dependent) surveillance • In the field of navigation, users have been quick to embrace satellite technology thanks to GPS • Galileo offers a model of the future – “compatible” with GPS, but providing design, operational and institutional redundancy (prerequisite for certifiability) together with better service quality • Are similar models applicable to communications and surveillance? • Gate-to-gate communications and surveillance are both essential for accurate 4D trajectory based management • ATS communications traffic is only a small proportion of the total • Wide mix of public and private operators today The issues are complex and there are no easy answers! The cost-benefit ratio must be proven in high-density areas.

12. Key to success? t • Many good technologies have come and gone and not been adopted; they have usually failed on: • Transition planning – how to get from the old to the new • Unproven benefit to cost ratio • Motto: “Evolutionary approach to a revolutionary system” transition • Some lessons from history: • The old and the new must be able to operate alongside each other • A clear transition path from old to new must be mapped • The new must offer clear benefits and be affordable • Payback to the airlines for their investment must be within 2-3 years • The solution must be global (European / U.S cooperation essential) old new

13. Backup slides

14. Integration of satellite navigation and communication Positiondetermination Positionreporting