Structural Implements to Food and Ecological Security: Implications for Macro Policies

1. Structural Implements to Food and Ecological Security: Implications for Macro Policies Amita Shah Gujarat Institute of Development Research Ahmedabad, India Jeju, South Korea September 8, 2012

2. Global Food Security: 2012 • Enough food to feed the growing population • Through: State of the Art Technology and Intensification • Leads to Obvious Trade-Offs between Food & Ecological Security (Land, Water, Chemical Inputs, Crop-Centric, Loss of Bio-Diversity)

3. Need to Change • What is being produced (commodity composition) • The way food is produced(technology) • The locations (regions) where food is produced (geography)

4. Some Facts • Developing economy contributing to 42% of food grains + pulses; likely increase to 47% in 2030 overshooting the contribution of industrial countries • The share of developing economies is higher in the case of other products (poultry, meat & milk) and likely to increase by 2030 • 83% of the world population will be in developing countries by 2030

5. On Natural Resources • About 50% of the arable land is yet to be brought under cultivation. • But, the potential for area increase more or less outside the developing economies • Therefore the strategy is to: (a) intensify production (b) increase trade Both these Raise Significant Concerns for Ecological Security

10. Source: Fertilizer Statistics 2010-11 Note: World* is the sum of the continents. The percentage of the data from fertilizer statistics 2010-11, 56th edition Area is given in ‘000 hectares and production is given in ‘000 tonnes.

11. Source: Fertilizer Statistics 2010-11 Note: World* is the sum of the continents. The percentage of the data from fertilizer statistics 2010-11, 56th edition Area is given in ‘000 hectares and production is given in ‘000 tonnes.

12. Source: Fertilizer Statistics 2010-11 Note: World* is the sum of the continents.

13. The Critical Question How to Change the Product-mix; Technology; and the Geography of Food Production in an Asymmetric Global Scenario?

14. A Broad Answer • Enhance Carrying Capacity (Natural Resource Development) • Explore & Promote Alternative Technological Solutions • Improve Income Distribution Across Different Regions, Countries, Households Essentially, Structural Solutions

15. Need to Calibrate Global Trade Framework • To go beyond Profit & Subsidy • Internalise Ecological Costs within the Framework of Competitive Advantage • Replace Food Trade & Aid by Basic Investment in Natural Resources (Ecology) among Developing Economies

16. North-South Dialogue On Food & Ecological Security Needs to Run through All the Global Negotiations on: • Trade • Environment • Employment, Poverty, Labour Processes (MDGs) Evolve a New Political Economy; Markets Alone can not do this

17. Where to Begin? Best, at the National Level; To Learn & Earn Credibility

18. Tinkering at the Margin Does Not Help • Need to Restructure the Vision of Economic Growth and Underlying Rationale • This indeed is double as both Ecology & Technology are Adaptable to New Goals & Challenges • Calls for a Global Consensus on Food & Ecological Security as Basic Right for Present & Future Generations

19. T H A N K S