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Theater Shaping with Allies & Partners: Maritime Security

Theater Shaping with Allies & Partners: Maritime Security. 19 March 2012 Prof. K. L. Nankivell nankivellk@apcss.org. Theater Shaping with Allies & Partners: agenda. Understanding the Theater: Three Revolutions Challenges for U.S. Policy & Engagement: Operational Technologies Organizational.

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Theater Shaping with Allies & Partners: Maritime Security

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  1. Theater Shaping withAllies & Partners:Maritime Security 19 March 2012 Prof. K. L. Nankivell nankivellk@apcss.org

  2. Theater Shaping withAllies & Partners:agenda Understanding the Theater:Three Revolutions Challenges for U.S. Policy & Engagement:Operational TechnologiesOrganizational

  3. First Revolution: Changing Structure of Trade

  4. First Revolution: Changing Structure of Trade Lloyd’s Maritime Intelligence Unit, 2010

  5. First Revolution: Asian Dominance High trade volume, low trade density

  6. Second Revolution:Ocean-going Players 8 Subs 2 Subs 15 Subs 3 Large Deck 30 Subs 20 subs? 2 Subs 3Large Deck 2 Large Deck? 4 Large Deck 8 Subs? NAVAL UNITSRECENTAND PLANNED 4 Subs? 6 Subs 6 Subs 2 Large Deck • 65% of the world’s navies • Estimates up to 111 new subs for Asia through 2030 • 16 Large Deck units in build or planned 2 Subs 2 Subs 12 Subs 3 Subs 2 Large Deck12 Subs

  7. Third Revolution: Legal Provisions for the Global Commons NWP 1-14M, U.S. Navy

  8. ‘So What’ for U.S. Policy & Engagement

  9. ‘So What’ for U.S. Policy & Engagement Operational Technologies Organizational • Access to technology • Relevance of technology to national interest • Supportive or corrosive to partnerships? consider: Japan, ROK, Singapore, Australia, Taiwan; Vietnam, India, Philippines? • Lead agencies • Legal constraints & mandates • Operational and diplomatic reach

  10. ‘So What’ for U.S. Policy & Engagement Big strategic pay-offs need to be sought with the partner’s drivers and constraints in mind: AccessRelevanceSupportPlug-in

  11. DISCUSSION Kerry Lynn Nankivell nankivellk@apcss.org(808) 564-5011

  12. SOVEREIGNTY DISPUTES IN SOUTH ASIA As adjudicated by ITLOS 14 Mar 2012

  13. Northern 4 Isls Issue (Japan, Russia) Take-shima/Dokdo Issue (Japan, ROK) Senkaku/Diaoyu Dispute (Japan, PRC, Taiwan) Taiwan Paracel Isls (PRC, Vietnam, Taiwan) EEZ Line (Japan) Macclesfield Bank (PRC, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan) Spratly Isls (Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Philippines, Taiwan, PRC) SOVEREIGNTY DISPUTES IN EAST ASIA ‘International Boundary’ announced by China Map source: the University of Texas at Austin Northern Limit Line (UN) Thai-Cambodia Dispute

  14. Unfriendly Neighbors:Beaufort Sea

  15. The Quest for Resources

  16. Ladd Reef, Vietnam Occupied Spratly Islands 2007

  17. Mischief Reef, 2007 PRC Occupied

  18. Okino Torishima Japanese Occupied 2010

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