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TSUNAMI READY PROGRAM

TSUNAMI READY PROGRAM. ZONAS SISMICAS Victor A. Hu é rfano. MAPA DE INUNDACION Aurelio Mercado. PR TWMP . Saving lives and property depends on how well the community is prepared. Bathymetry/Topographic data Population and Infrastructure.

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TSUNAMI READY PROGRAM

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  1. TSUNAMI READY PROGRAM ZONAS SISMICAS Victor A. Huérfano MAPA DE INUNDACION Aurelio Mercado

  2. PR TWMP Saving lives and property depends on how well the community is prepared Bathymetry/Topographic data Population and Infrastructure Hypothetical Tsunami Scenarios (Seismology/Previous work) Computer Simulations Initial Conditions (Mansinha and Smylie) Propagation and run up (TIME project, Shuto) Real Time Monitoring Forecasting Observations Numerical Modeling Numerical Data Base Historical Observations Instrumental Data Base Worst Case Scenario Vulnerability Alert System Observations Messages (Protocols) Tsunami Hazard Planning Education and Outreach

  3. ZONAS SISMICAS Y SISMICIDAD LOCAL

  4. BACKGROUND Puerto Rico Dominican Rep. Virgin Islands Cuba Lesser Antilles Jamaica Haiti Trinidad

  5. PLATE BOUNDARIES Mona Canyon North America Plate Septentrional Fault Puerto Rico Trench 19ºN Fault Zone Anegada Passage Muertos Trough Caribbean Plate South America Plate Cocos Plate

  6. 1670 MM = VII, San Germán y San Juan 1787 M @7-8,MM = VII-VIII, Costa Norte, Este y Oeste 1867 M =7.3, MM = VIII, Islas Vírgenes, Tsunami 20’ 1918 M = 7.3, MM = VIII, Área Oeste de PR, Tsunami 20’ 1943 M = 7.5, MM = V, Noreste de Puerto Rico EARTHQUAKES, TSUNAMIS and Active Volcanoes 1943 1842 1946 1564 1670 1787 1867 Soufriere 1770 1918 1751 Kick’em Jenny Shepherd, et al, (1992)

  7. 1670 MM = VII, San Germán y San Juan 1787 M @7-8,MM = VII-VIII, Costa Norte, Este y Oeste 1867 M =7.3, MM = VIII, Islas Vírgenes, Tsunami 20’ 1918 M = 7.3, MM = VIII, Área Oeste de PR, Tsunami 20’ 1943 M = 7.5, MM = V, Noreste de Puerto Rico EARTHQUAKES, TSUNAMIS and Active Volcanoes 1842 300 (???) casualties 1918 40 (100) casualties 1867 17 casualties 1780 300 (???) casualties Soufriere 1692 2000 (???) casualties 1946 100 (1790) casualties Kick’em Jenny Shepherd, et al, (1992)

  8. MEDICIONES DE GPS Jansma, 2000

  9. TSUNAMIS EN PUERTO RICO Septentrional Fault Zone Puerto Rico Trench Mona Canyon 19ºN Fault Zone Sombrero Seismic Zone Muertos Trough Anegada Passage VI Basin

  10. PLACAS TECTONICAS: Sismicidad Mundial CARIBBEAN PLATE PUERTO RICO

  11. Clinton, Cua, Huèrfano, von Hillebrandt and Martinez (2006)

  12. DISTRIBUCION LOCAL DE SISMICIDAD Clinton, Cua, Huèrfano, von Hillebrandt and Martinez (2006)

  13. The TSUNAMI Problem

  14. (J. Joyce) (ten Brink) (P. Dillon) PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS

  15. PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS || || || || || || || ( Masson and Scanlon ) || || || || || ||

  16. PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || || ( D. Larue )

  17. PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS (N. Grindlay )

  18. PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS (W. McCann )

  19. ZONAS SISMICAS Y MODELAJE NUMERICO PRT-B Segments: 27 Maximum M: 8.0 Recurrence T: 3800 PRT-A Segments: 24 Maximum M: 8.0 Recurrence T: 3800 PUERTO RICO REGION Faults: 102 Segments: 268 Maximum M (Faults): 7.6 Maximum M (Segments): 7.2 Seismic Catalogue: 10031 Waveform Catalogue: 3518 Quakes used: 4422 Depth: ≤ 50 km Offshore Seismicity Completeness: 3.2 Ml (Outside) 19ºN Segments: 16 Maximum M: 7.6 Recurrence T: 3300 SEPTENTRIONAL F. Segments: 14 Maximum M: 7.8 (ref) Recurrence T: 1900 SOMBRERO SZ Segments: 24 Maximum M: 7.7 Recurrence T: 1200 MONA CANYON Segments: 24 Maximum M: 7.5 Recurrence T: 2000 NORTH PLATFORM Segments: 25 Maximum M: 6.8 Recurrence T: 2500 ANEGADA P. Segments: 28 Maximum M: 7.7 Recurrence T: 3700 EASTERN DR. Segments: 9 Maximum M: 7.2 Recurrence T: 800 SOUTHWESTERN Segments: 36 Maximum M: 6.6 Recurrence T: 1800 LEEWARD LZ. Segments: 11 Maximum M: 7.0 Recurrence T: 3000 MUERTOS T. Segments: 28 Maximum M: 7.7 Recurrence T: 3700 ( Huérfano )

  20. PR-TWMP Numerical Data Base

  21. MAREMOTO DE INDONESIA, DICIEMBRE 26 de 2004

  22. TSUNAMI GENERATION AND ATACK

  23. THE PROBLEM: Tsunami Earthquakes HYPOCENTER GEOMETRY, SIZE and TIMING

  24. MALLAS UTILIZADAS EN LAS SIMULACIONES A : 27 sec/arc B : 9 sec/arc C : 3 sec/arc

  25. R5: Strike = 122 Dip = 80 Rake = 90 Mw = 7.7 { Geometry Size……. TSUNAMI GENERATION

  26. TSUNAMIINUNDATION MAPSalinas, PR

  27. QUE PODEMOS HACER?

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