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Ecological Forecasting

Extending NOAA’s prediction and assessment mission to coastal and marine ecosystems. Ecological Forecasting. Dr. Donald Scavia National Ocean Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration January 6, 2003. NOAA Context for Ecological Forecasting Outline Research Needs.

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Ecological Forecasting

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  1. Extending NOAA’s prediction and assessment mission to coastal and marine ecosystems. Ecological Forecasting Dr. Donald Scavia National Ocean Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration January 6, 2003

  2. NOAA Context for Ecological Forecasting Outline Research Needs Presentation Outline

  3. The Power of Prediction … The Limits of Prediction … Why Forecasts? “Knowing” impacts improves decisions. Uncertainties set the science agenda.

  4. What is an Ecological Forecast? The “Bio-Physical” Challenge “In terms of conventional physics, the grouse represents only a millionth of either the mass or energy of an acre. Yet, subtract the grouse and the whole thing is dead.” Aldo Leopold, 1948 “In anything at all, perfection is finally attained not when there is on longer anything to add, but when there is no longer anything to take away.” Antoine de Saint-Exupery, 1940

  5. Drivers of Ecosystem Change From CENR

  6. Time Scale of Ecosystem Response Relevant Time and Space scales. From CENR

  7. Focus on Two Classes • Weather Forecast Analogies • Short-term, local scales • Integrated Assessment Contexts • Longer-term, regional scales

  8. Time Scale of Ecosystem Response Chesapeake Bay Sea Nettle Nowcasts Florida and Gulf of Maine HAB Forecasts Weather Forecast Analogs Weather Forecast Analogs

  9. Integrated AssessmentsA Formal bridge to policy • Document Status and Trends • Describe Causes and Consequences of Trends • Predict Future Outcomes Under Action Options • Provide guidance for Potential Actions A key weak point in most Integrated Assessments is Step #3: Ecological Forecasting

  10. Water Allocation impacts on oysters. MS Basin Land Use impacts on Gulf hypoxia. Controls of seagrass recovery. Sea-level rise impacts on coastal ecosystems. Step 3 in Integrated Assessments Time Scale of Ecosystem Response Input for Assessments

  11. Research Needs • Reduce uncertainty in forecasts of: • marine ecosystem variability • estuarine susceptibility • coastal climate impacts • Key gaps in process understanding • Science in the Integrated Assessment Framework

  12. Reduce Uncertainty in Marine Ecosystem Forecasts • Long-Term Ecological Monitoring • Advanced monitoring technologies • Data Assimilative Models • Emphasis on low frequency change • Coupled bio/physical models • Dynamics-based ecosystem indices • Process Research on Recruitment Variability • Bio-physical controls • Spatial interactions (aka marine reserves) • Ecosystem-based Management Strategies • Including social and economic constraints

  13. Reduce Uncertainty in Forecasts of Estuarine Susceptibility • Long-Term Ecological Monitoring • Advanced monitoring technologies • Data Assimilative Estuary Models • Response to loads (esp. nutrients) • Physical constraints (flushing, etc) • Move away from “uniqueness” paradigm • Focus on Multiple Stresses • Changes in nutrient loads • Climate changes (T, H2O load) • Better models of watershed processes • Agricultural systems • Groundwater, wetlands, riparian zones

  14. Reduce Uncertainty in Forecasts of Coastal Climate Impacts • Sea Level Rise/Land Subsidence/Storms • Changes in H2O/sediment delivery • Rates of wetland inundation • Impacts of fragmentation and loss • Sea Surface Temperature; Dissolved CO2 • Coral distribution and survival • Changing Precipitation Patterns • Altered nutrient loads, salinity, stability • Ocean circulation & Temperature patterns • Species distribution (fisheries, invasives) • Recruitment processes

  15. Key Process Lacunae • Modeling linked C & N cycles • Coastal Eutrophication • denitrification; reduce production • Climate Change • NOx release; C-sequestration • What initiates Harmful Algal Blooms? • What controls marine species invasions?

  16. Integrated Assessments Context • Document Status and Trends • Ecosystem Observing Systems • Describe Causes and Consequences of Trends • Integrated Natural and Social Sciences • Predict Future Outcomes Under Action Options • Ecological Forecasting • “Big scary” and simple models • Assimilative; uncertainty quantified • Provide guidance for Potential Actions • With social and economic constraints

  17. Extending NOAA’s prediction and assessment mission to coastal and marine ecosystems. Ecological Forecasting Dr. Donald Scavia National Ocean Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration January 6, 2003

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