Hazard Risk Management in TURKEY Achievements & Challenges Ahead

1. Hazard Risk Management in TURKEY Achievements & Challenges Ahead Murat Sungur BURSA Director Prime Ministry-PIU October 26, 2004

2. What is a natural disaster? is a geophysical, hydrological or atmospheric event impacts vulnerable communities or geographical areas, causes substantial damage, disruption and casualties leaves the affected communities unable to function normally.

3. TURKEY is prone to mainly three types of natural disasters. • One of the most seismically active region in the world; • 70% of the population lives in areas highly vulnerable to earhtquakes. • 66% of the country is located on active fault zones. • 75% of damaged buildings and %64 of total disaster losses in the last century are due to earthquakes • Vulnerable to floods; • Mostly in coastal plains and exacerbated by deforestation, erosion and ignorant development. • 15% of total disaster losses are due to floods. • Annual average losses exceed 100 million US$ • Landslides; • 25% of country area is exposed to landslide hazard. • 11% of total population is located in landslide areas. • 16 % of total disaster losses are due to landslides.

5. EARTHQUAKE TOLL IN TURKEY • Avarege annual direct economic costs exceeded 1 billion US$ in the last decade. • Average annual number of earthquakes equal or greater than a magnitude of 5.5 on the Richter scale: 0.76 (6th in the world) • Number of people killed per year due to earthquakes: 950 (3rd in the world) • Average number of people killed per million inhabitants: 15.58 (4th in the world) • Average physical exposure per year: 2 745 757 people (8th in the world) • Killed per million exposed – relative vulnerability: 346 people (4th in the world)

7. In the last decade Turkey faced heavy natural disasters Erzincan Earthquake, 1992 Flood in Black Sea Region, 1998 Adana-Ceyhan Earthquake, 1998 Marmara Earthquake, 1999

8. Erzincan Earthquake, 6.8 Richter , 1992 500 people died, 700 were injured 6500 houses were destroyed. direct loss is about 650 million US$ Flood in Black Sea Region, 1998 area of 37.000 km2 with a population of 2.2 million suffered the worst flood of the last century direct loss is about 500 million US$ Adana-Ceyhan Earthquake, 6.3 Richter, 1998 150 people died and 1000 injured 74.300 houses collapsed, heavily or lightly damaged. direct loss is about 1 billion US$

9. 1999 Marmara Earthquake, 7.4 Richter 18000 lives lost 113.000 housing units and business premises were completely destroyed, 264.000 damaged to varying degrees Up to 600.000 people were forced to leave their homes. 10-15 billion US$ direct cost

10. Lessons learned from Marmara Earthquake Communication • Communication failed • Telephone lines were out of order in first 48 hours • Mobiles did not function First Aid & Rescue • Lack of organization and coordination in search & rescue activities • Caotic situation • Bureaucracy inhibiting efficiency and effectiveness • Insufficient logistic supports • Voluntary efforts were not trained and organised Losses / Problems • Public buildings and infrastructure seriously damaged • Sub-standard buildings and infrastructure • Hazard ignorant development • Lack of code enforcement • Improper inspection during construction • Corrupted permitting and licensing Serious Resource Gap • 10-15 billion $ as direct cost • %5-7 of Turkey’s GNP

11. Distribution of Government Expenditures After 1999 Marmara Earthquake *Source: OECD and Ministry of Finance of TURKEY

12. Resource Gap World Bank has been a leading lending institution together with European Investment Bank after major natural disasters in the last decade • ERZİNCAN Earthquake Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Project (ERRP) • Turkey Emergency Flood and Earthquake Recovery Project (TEFER) • Marmara Earthquake Emergency Reconstruction Project (MEER)

14. Cost / Benefit Analysis • Cost of structural system is around 35% of total construction. Spending an additional 15% in the structural system should save the buildings from collapsing. Accordingly; For every additional 1 $ spent during construction, savings are up to 40 $ For every 1 $ spent for retrofitting, savings are up to 8 $ No rational business-mind can resist such a high rate of return What about BUREAUCRACY??? We have the luxury of not having business, mind But we have the RESPONSIBILITY

15. Cost / Benefit Analysis Saving LIVES ??? During Marmara Earthquake: • 18.000 people lost their lives. • There were 70.000 casualties. • 600.000 people were forced to live their homes

16. Policy Shift in TURKEY; STRATEGIC • Choice • Proactive • Mitigation • Anticipate and prevent • Ex-ante • Risk management • Comprehensive approach • Sustainable development CONVENTIONAL • Fate • Reactive • Recovery • Wait and see • Ex-post • Crisis management • Ad-hoc efforts • Development at risk

17. Developments in Turkey; • Five Year Development Plan of TURKEY for the period 2001-2005envisages: • Minimization of hazard risks • Establishment of appropriate legal, social, institutional and technical structures with effective measures for disaster mitigation • Turkish Catastrophic Insurance Pool established after 1999 Marmara Earthquake to enable catastrophic risk transfer and risk financing (nearly 2 million housing units insured) • Local Government and Public Sector Reforms support serious decentralization of central government’s functions and responsibilities including disaster management. • Sensitivity of citizens and NGO’s for disaster mitigation is increasing • Disaster mitigation is a new challenge for municipalities • Candidates in the last municipal elections, competed with their disaster mitigation projectsas part of their election campaigns.

18. İstanbul • Comparable seismic risk degree with San Francisco, Los Angeles and Tokyo cities • Probability of occurence of a large earthquake in next 30 years is greater than %50. • Probability of occurence of a large earthquake in next 10 years is greater than %20. • Impacts after a probable 7.5 Richter scale earthquake in Istanbul; • Approximately 70.000 dead people,120.000 injured-heavily injured people, 400.000 light injured people • direct economic loss ~30 billion US $

19. İstanbul Earthquake Master Plan a road map.... İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality Governorate Objective: Reducing the effects of probable İstanbul Earthquake Institutions District Municipalities Enterprises NGOs a social contract....

20. District Municipalities; Bakırköy Municipality • Vulnerability Assessment of 10.362 buildings • 3.500 buildings are high to very high risk • Feasibility study for retrofitting of 350 residential buildings in Bakırköy is near to start. Zeytinburnu Municipality • Vulnerability Assessment of 15.000 buildings have been completed • Framework for urban regeneration project of Zeytinburnu has been prepared. Operational models are under discussion.

21. Main Challenges Ahead; Regulatory Issues: • Development Law • Condominium Law • Urban Regeneration Law • Building Code • Building Inspection Law • Retrofitting Regulation • Soil Improvement Regulation Organizational Issues: • Finalizing reorganization of disaster management functions: • Between Prime Ministry / Ministries • At central / local government levels Technical Studies: • Microzonation • Cadastre Renovation • Risk Identification & Assessment • Vulnerability Assessment

22. Main Challenges Ahead; Enforcement and Implementation • Effective code enforcement • Risk financing • Enlarging the risk insurance base • Capacity Building in all organizations • Awareness raising • Training at all levels • Public private partnerships • Citizen participation • Urban regeneration • Implementing risk mitigation measures and retrofitting of existing building stock “Sine-qua-non”s • Technically feasible • financially affordable • economically justifiable • socially acceptable

23. Who has the POWER? The POWER is in the hands of decision makers and practitioners If we are committed and engage our societies to take preparedness and mitigation measures at the adequate level, • many potential disasters will turn to be natural events. THE POWER IS IN YOU!!!

24. Invitation for Cooperation TRADITIONAL NEW VISION • Humanitarian • Search and Rescue • Reactive • Ex-post • Recovery • Wait for the incident • Doctors, nurses • Donor meetings • We will Humanitarian Search and Rescue Proactive Ex-ante Mitigation Continuous Development planners, politicians, engineers, doctors, decision makers etc. Risk management workshops Let us TURKEY welcomes cooperation with all countries under this new vision and invites you all to contribute to this process. RSVP

25. TRADITIONAL Cooperation NEW VISION Cooperation

26. Let us all be; pro-active, strategic, comprehensive & try to prevent or mitigate

28. 7.5 Richter scale pleasure...

29. Thank you...