Director’s Update to COPC May 2010 Colonel Robert L. Russell Commander

1. Director’s Updateto COPCMay 2010Colonel Robert L. RussellCommander Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimited

2. Overview • Mission & Structure • Current Operations • Backup for COPC partners • DMSP Status • WRF Transition FOC Achieved • Production HPC Capacity • Developmental Initiatives • Ensemble modeling • Dust Forecasting • Space Weather Modeling • AFW-WEBS

3. AFWA mission:A Global Team for the Global Fight Maximizing America’s Power through the Exploitation of Timely, Accurate, and Relevant Weather Information; Anytime, Everywhere

4. AFWA Structure FOA Commander Offutt AFB, NE 1400 Personnel 14 GSUs 1st Weather Group Offutt AFB A – Staff Offutt AFB 2nd Weather Group Offutt AFB 2 SYOS Offutt AFB 14 WS Asheville, NC 25 OWS D-M AFB, AZ 15 OWS Scott AFB, IL 2 WS Offutt AFB 2 CWSS Hurlburt Fld, FL 26 OWS Barksdale AFB, LA 16 WS Offutt AFB

5. AFWA’s Worldwide Team HQ AFWA HQ 1 WXG HQ 2 WXG 2 WS 2 SYOS 16 WS OL-K, Norman Det 3, WP OL-P, Boulder Det 2, Sag Hill San Vito Det 4, Holloman 25 OWS, D-M 14 WS, Asheville Det 5, Palehua OL-E, Shaw 15 OWS, Scott 2 CWSS, Hurlburt 26 OWS, Barksdale OL-C, Hickam Det 1, Learmonth

6. Operational BackupSince May 2009 NCEP - Storm Prediction Center/Aviation Weather Center No real-world backups; 4 successful rehearsals Backup role has fully transitioned to 1 WXG (15 OWS at Scott AFB, IL) to better align with unit capabilities System infrastructure for SPC/AWC relocation in case of catastrophic outage is retained at Offutt AFB NCEP - Space Weather Prediction Center (bi-directional) No real-world backups; 4 successful rehearsals NESDIS – Volcanic Ash Advisory Center 5 short-term real-world backups (lasting a few hours) 2 successful scheduled rehearsals

7. DMSP Spacecraft StatusMarch 2010 Slide removed in public release version

8. WRF FOC • AFWA WRF/ARW Operational Configuration • 57 Vertical Levels • 10 mb model top • Kain-Fritsch Convection • Yonsei Univ PBL Physics • Coupled to NOAH LSM • 3DVAR data assimilation

9. WRF FOCOperational Windows as of 20 April 2010 Slide removed in public release version

10. HPC ResourcesUnclassified Production Enclave • 5.2 TFLOPS capacity • IBM/AIX systems • ~5 TFLOPS additional in classified and development enclaves • 15+ TFLOP LINUX system installed summer 2010

11. Developmental Initiatives

12. Ensemble Forecasting • Global and mesoscale ensembles in development mode • Global Ensemble Prediction (GEP) based on GFS, NOGAPS, Canadian GEM • Domain cut-outs based on warfighter feedback • 2 cycles per day • 240 hour forecast length, 6 hourly output • Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction (MEP) based on WRF and SREF ensemble members • WRF—2 cycles per day per theater, 4 domains, offset 6hrs • SREF—4 cycles per day • SREF and WRF merged twice per day for CONUS only

13. Ensemble Forecasting https://weather.afwa.af.mil/host_home/DNXM/JEFS/jefs.html Available products from global (GEP) and meso (MEP) ensembles: Precipitation Amount Precipitation Type Snow Amount Cloud Cover Lightning Dust Lofting Severe Weather Blizzard Surface Wind Gust Visibility Wind Chill Heat Index Smoke Trapping Haboob Index Sig Tornado Parameter Real-time verification also available

14. Dust Forecasting Verification • Dust Transport Application (DTA) verification study established relationship between concentration & visibility • Subjective verification technique • Area divided into grid • Hit/no hit evaluated • Verification ongoing – visibility restriction due to dust added to model metrics • Probability of detecting (POD) a dust storm beyond 24 hours is 50-80% 14

15. Dust Forecasting Way Ahead • Planned DTA Improvements • High resolution (0.25 degree and smaller) dust source region • Development of a dynamic dust source region database • Dust ensemble products • Collaboration w/ Navy (NRL & FNMOC) • Inclusion of COAMPS dust model products • Improve DTA to re-loft dust that has been deposited • Initial work being accomplished by JHU-APL • Implement WRF-Chem model later this year • Provides for explicit modeling of aerosols 15

16. Space Weather Modeling • GAIM – Full-Physics upgrade (GAIM-FP) due from USU in CY 12 • Continue to assimilate new data and make enhancements • Higher resolution, greater accuracy, and larger vertical domain • SAA model delivered from JHU-APL to support classified ops • Adding ensemble mode to solar wind/ionosphere model (SWMS) • Partnerships to advance space weather support • NASA – Helped CCMC refine iSWA to serve AFWA forecasters • AFRL – SWFL will bring state-of-the-science models into the ops environment to speed transition • NOAA – SWPT will transition new models to ops for SWPC and AFWA • Upgrading HF comm support with advanced SWPC model 16

17. AFW-WEBS Updatehttps://weather.af.mil AFW Enterprise Portal Google Earth installed at 15m Google Maps API Integration Uses AFWA globe = closed DoD system (not commercial globe) Leverage Google tiling scheme to optimize caching Live preview panes Enhanced user interface and layer controls Standard upper air and METWATCH layers Observations, TAFs, radar, lightning & satellite data NWP, DTA, and Space Wx (GAIM) model data Climatology data and products 17

18. AFW-WEBSUp Next • Continue expanding product suite and enhance looping • Satellite data enhancements • Initial CDFS-II capability added • Standing up dedicated web service for METSAT Apr 10 • Enable Lightweight Directory Access Protocol (LDAP) May 10 • User preferences saved • Weather “snapshot” for point locations • Initial capability fielded • Single pop-up w/ 5-day, obs, text forecasts, radar/satellite, climatology, links, etc. • Enhancements continue • OWS/14 WS content integrated • Classified enclaves: • On track for SIPR presence on production by early May • JWICS by July • Begin transitioning off JAAWIN Oct 10 18

19. Questions?