'Ensemble forecasting' presentation slideshows

Ensemble Forecasting: Calibration, Verification, and use in Applications

Ensemble Forecasting: Calibration, Verification, and use in Applications. Tom Hopson. Outline. Motivation for ensemble forecasting and post-processing Introduce Quantile Regression (QR; Kroenker and Bassett, 1978) p ost -processing procedure Ensemble forecast verification

820 views • 65 slides

Strategies for Development of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction (DSP) System at Operational Centers

Strategies for Development of Dynamical Seasonal Prediction (DSP) System at Operational Centers. By Masao Kanamitsu Climate Research Division SIO/UCSD. Preface. Operational vs. Research Statistical vs. Dynamical. Operational vs. Research. Operational Produce useful results now!

746 views • 59 slides

Ensemble Forecasting

Ensemble Forecasting. Yuejian Zhu Environmental Modeling Center December 6 th 2011 Acknowledgment for: Members of Ensemble & Probabilistic Guidance Team. Outlines. Responsibility of ensemble team Include all ensemble systems Current available data and products

938 views • 58 slides

The THORPEX Interactive Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Multi-model ensembles and

The THORPEX Interactive Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Multi-model ensembles and Tropical cyclone forecasting. Richard Swinbank, with thanks to the GIFS-TIGGE working group, THORPEX IPO and Met Office & other colleagues. Ensemble TC forecasting workshop, Nanjing, 14-16 December 2011.

520 views • 51 slides

Steve Tracton NCEP Alumnus Washington, DC

EPS AT NCEP: historical (and personal) perspective 6 th NCEP ensemble user workshop NCWCP, 25-27 March 2014. Steve Tracton NCEP Alumnus Washington, DC. No forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. No forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty.

594 views • 49 slides

Climate Change and Bird Conservation in California

561 views • 41 slides

Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS)

500 views • 39 slides

Joint Ensemble Forecast System (JEFS)

402 views • 39 slides

Dr. Ralph Peterson, Dr. Bill Bua, Dr. Wassila Thiaw

Use of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction System in the Weather Forecast Process. Dr. Ralph Peterson, Dr. Bill Bua, Dr. Wassila Thiaw. Talk Outline. Review of rationale for general ensemble prediction system design and products

471 views • 25 slides

286 views • 23 slides

344 views • 22 slides

INTELLIGENT USE OF THE AVN/MRF

INTELLIGENT USE OF THE AVN/MRF. MICHAEL ECKERT. HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. CAMP SPRINGS, MD. E-MAIL ADDRESS: michael.eckert@noaa.gov. Understanding the performance of an operational model is critical to being able to forecast the sensible weather.

364 views • 21 slides

COMPLETING THE FORECAST: ASSESSING AND COMMUNICATING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY

Zoltan Toth Environmental Modeling Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP Acknowledgements: NRC Report; Louis Uccellini, Steve Lord & Ensemble Team http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html. COMPLETING THE FORECAST: ASSESSING AND COMMUNICATING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. OUTLINE / SUMMARY.

365 views • 20 slides

291 views • 19 slides

336 views • 19 slides

Ensemble Forecasting of High-Impact Weather

Ensemble Forecasting of High-Impact Weather. Richard Swinbank with thanks to various, mainly Met Office, colleagues. High-Impact Weather THORPEX follow-on project meeting, Karlsruhe, March 2013. Ensemble forecasting of High-Impact Weather. Challenges of convective-scale ensembles

364 views • 18 slides

NORTH AMERICAN REGIONAL COMMITTEE Malaquias Pena & Brian Mills NOAA/NWS/NCEP & Environment Canada

289 views • 14 slides

NWP 4: Probabilistic and ensemble forecasting at short and medium-range 13/09/2013

277 views • 12 slides

Probabilistic (ensemble) assimilation-prediction system

Probabilistic (ensemble) assimilation-prediction system. Data assimilation and ensemble forecasting fully coupled - optimal perturbations for ensemble forecasting - flow-dependent forecast error covariance for data assimilation Maximum likelihood approach

68 views • 6 slides