Business in 2020 How Will it Change

1. Business in 2020 How Will it Change Prof. Dr. N. PrabhudevVice-ChancellorBANGALORE UNIVERSITYWebsite: www.vcbunprabhudev.inEmail: vcbunprabhudev@gmail.comBlog: http://www.vcbunprabhudev.blogspot.comTwitter: http://twitter.com/VCBU

2. Over the forthcoming years it must be expected that all aspects of life on Earth will change drastically and dramatically, be this through climate change, technological advancement or economic transition. On analyzing the 'eighties', or even the 'nineties', the changes which have occurred from then to the present day are nothing short of amazing.

3. Mobile telephones are prevalent amongst employees in most industries and e-mails, databases, spreadsheets and various other programmes have, to a degree, rendered the pen and paper nothing more than a 'supporting act'. With such major changes occurring in such a short space of time, it appears businesses will continue to experience extreme and drastic new environments

4. Ray Kurzweil, a renowned computer scientist, predicts "We won't experience 100 years progress in the 21st century - it will be more like 20,000 years of progress at today's rate. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to the Singularity: technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. In practical terms human ageing and illness will be reversed; pollution will be stopped; world hunger and poverty will be solved. Nanotechnology will make it possible to create virtually any physical product using inexpensive information processes, and will ultimately turn even death into a soluble problem".

5. New technology is continuously being developed, with today's ideas becoming tomorrow's reality. New fuels, greater computer capabilities and advanced machinery should all play a major role over the coming years. Many production lines are presently almost fully automated, so the question is what will be the next step technologically? Will computers / robots carry out the administrative / supervisor roles as well as the production ones? Will we see an Artificial Intelligence based Managing Director, and if so who are his/hers stakeholders? Will new technological advancement make companies more efficient and LEAN, but ultimately lead to a race of AI based humanoids running a world where humans are no longer the dominant species? These are questions which cannot be answered at present, but simply considered as a possibility.

6. The growth of nations such as China and India will have a considerable impact on the business world. With huge populations (China 1.3 billion and India 1.1 billion) willing to work in 'inhumane' working conditions for negligible wages, it is difficult for westernised developed countries to compete on price and output. China has Passed the US as the World's Largest Economy

7. The US was the world’s largest economy for about a century, since the British Empire suffered severely in the Second World War. China can now look for a reign on the throne for about 30-40 years before the currently fastest growing major economy, India, is likely to surpass them. India will be the world’s third largest economy in year 2034 with the help of their growing population and will challenge the size of the US economy in a decade

8. Even though China has passed the US in total, the US is still by far the nation with the biggest GDP per capita with US$73,830, followed by Japan, United Kingdom and France, among the largest economies in the world. China, as the second most populous country in the world, has a GDP per capita of US$20,610, more than twice as much as India on US$8,180.

9. The latest environmental effort is the introduction of the Re-Hydro label last year to stimulate the production of hydrogen produced through electrolysis, based on a source of 100% renewable energy. The production is still quite limited and it is only available at selected stations. The current price is about 10% over the regular price for hydrogen, and will most likely not have a major impact until more producers switch from regular production to Re-Hydro.

10. The transition to hydrogen in the US is moving slow compared to a country like Iceland where already 80% of the car fleet runs on hydrogen. They are planning to set a date of when to shut down the last gasoline pump on Iceland, and it looks like it will be around the year 2040. When that day arrives in the US it will mean a lot to the global environment.Predicting the future of business is never easy, but it doesn't have to be a blind gamble. Savvy managers constantly engage in clear-eyed futurism to anticipate changes that may lurk over the horizon. The process starts by examining known trends, testing scenarios, and constructing a narrative about where business is headed.

11. 'GDP set to rise 4-fold by 2020' The Indian economy is set to become four times its current size in the decade to 2020, with the gross domestic product (GDP) spurting to over $4 trillion (about Rs 205 lakhcrore at present exchange rate) and per capita income rising to $3,213 from $1,017 now. During these ten years, annual incremental savings will also jump nearly four times to Rs 72 lakhcrore from Rs 19 lakhcrore now, a report published by domestic broking major Edelweiss Capital said

12. Driven by a nominal annual growth rate of 13%, India's GDP is set to quadruple over the next ten years and the country is likely to be a Rs 205-lakh-crore economy by 2020," the Edelweiss report, titled 'India 2020: Seeing, Beyond', which was presented to FM PranabMukherjee recently and released, said. The report focuses on three super themes -- financial services, private domestic consumption and infrastructure, all of which are estimated to grow by over four times during the decade under consideration.

13. EmploymentCreation• 45% of new urban jobs createdEducation 6-7x fold increase in tertiary education Women in the workforce estimated to be 30%; new entrants-45%. 6% of annual GDP• 28% of annual exports 30 million urban employment (direct and indirect)• Significant job creation in rural and non-metro areas• Increased diversity (women are 50% of the total workforce)• Significant global career opportunities due to location-independent models 8-10 satellite townships around Tier-I cities

14. India can become a laboratory for innovation for the world and own business systems in atleast 3 areas – energy efficiency and climate change, mobile applications, clinical research outsourcing World’s consumer spending will expand at an annual rate of 5.6% to US$ 62 trillion by 2020 compared to US$ 27 trillion today. Though US will continue to be the largest consumer market, China will emerge as the world’s second largest consumer market and India will rival the bigger European markets. India’s share in world consumer spending will increase from 1.9% in 2005 to 3.1% in 2020.

15. India’s growing integration with the global economy and its favourable demographics are likely to ensure a sustained rate of growth of 5.9% a year in 2006-20. India’s democracy is well entrenched; its legal system is generally impartial, if slow-moving, and its constitution is respected. However, India’s much-discussed IT sector accounts for too small a share of GDP to be a long-term driver of growth. Much more will depend on the modernisation of the country’s agriculture and manufacturing.