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Climate Change Concerns, Research Needs and Effort in Pakistan

Climate Change Concerns, Research Needs and Effort in Pakistan. Dr. Arshad M. Khan. Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change Islamabad, 15 February 2008. Warmest 12 years: 2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 2000, 1999. Some Major Findings of IPCC

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Climate Change Concerns, Research Needs and Effort in Pakistan

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  1. Climate Change Concerns, Research Needs and Effort in Pakistan Dr. Arshad M. Khan Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change Islamabad, 15 February 2008

  2. Warmest 12 years: 2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 2000, 1999

  3. Some Major Findings of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007 • 0.6 0 C increase in average global temperature during the last century; • Further increase by 1.8 – 4.0 0 C projected over the 21st Century; • Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and decreases) of temperature and precipitation in different world regions; • Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events (severe cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase considerably; • Large scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps, particularly the Arctic; • Substantial rise in sea level.

  4. Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan • Increased variability of Monsoon; • Increased risks of floods and droughts; • Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid region; • Food Insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity; 060212/0018

  5. Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan (Contd.) • More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers; • Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline; • Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral reefs and breeding grounds of fish; 060212/0020

  6. Vulnerability of Pakistan to Climate Change • Economy largely based on agriculture, which is climate sensitive; • Flows in IRS threatened by melting of Himalayan glaciers; • Low technological and scientific base and limited access to knowledge; • Weak institutional mechanism and low financial resources to undertake appropriate adaptation measures.

  7. Research Needs of Pakistan • Proper understanding of the past trends of: • Region-wise Climate Change • Changes in flow patterns of IRS • Changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events • Recession of Karakoram Glaciers • Degradation of the Indus delta region • Fine resolution projections of climate change in Pakistan in line with global trends • Scientific assessment of likely future impacts of climate change on country’s key sectors, in particular Water and Agriculture • Identification of appropriate adaptation measures to cope with adverse impacts

  8. Climate Change Related Work in Pakistan – An Overview • 1992: IUCN/Env. & Urban Aff. Div., GoP report: “The Pakistan National Conservation Strategy”, • 1994: ADB report: “Climate Change in Asia – Regional Study on Global Environmental Issues; • 1998: ADB report: “Asia Least Cost Abatement Strategy (ALGAS)” • 1998: MoEnv., GoP and UNEP report: “Climate Change and Impact Assessment & Adaptation Strategy for Pakistan”; • Mid-1990s onwards: Various studies coordinated by Dr. Amir Muhammed

  9. Climate Change Related Work in Pakistan – An Overview (contd.) • 2002: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) established; • 2003: Pakistan’s First National Communication to UNFCCC by MoEnv., GoP; • 2004: Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change established, with GCISC as its Secretariat; • 2005: PARC/ UNEP/ ICIMOD/ APN/ START report on Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes in Pakistan Himalayas; • 2007: Briefing of National Planners and Policymakers on Climate Change research results by GCISC.

  10. Regional Climate Models Climate Change Scenario Development Climate Data Assessment of Climate Change Impacton Water Resources Water Resources Data Water Simulation Models Crop Simulation Models Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Agriculture Agricultural Data Identification of adaptation measures in agriculture sector Identification of adaptation measures in water sector Dissemination of Project Outcomes GCISC Activities at a Glance Capacity Building/ Research Analysis of Enhancement and DisseminationHistorical Data

  11. Area of GCISC Activities at Present GCISC Approach for CC Research Regional Climate Models (RCMs) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) Internal driving forces Information at 300 km x 300 km level Regional Climate Scenarios Global Climate Scenarios External driving forces Land use & Topographic data etc. Super Computer Information at 30 km x 30 km level Anthropogenic Influences Impact Studies Crop-growth Simulation Models Adaptation Measures Mesoscale Climate Models (MMs) Watershed Models Agriculture Effects on Crop Yields Effect on River inflows Information at Sub-km level Adaptation Measures Future Activities Energy Health Biodiversity

  12. Simulation Models Currently in Use at GCISC Regional Climate Models : • RegCM3 (AS-ICTP, Italy) • PRECIS (Hadley Centre, UK) • WRF (NCAR, USA) Watershed Models : • DHSVM (Univ. of Washington, USA) • UBC (Univ. of British Columbia, Canada) • HEC-HMS (US Army Corps of Engineers) Crop Simulation Models : DSSAT: Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (Univ. of Georgia, Griffin, USA) comprising several families of models: • CERES (for cereals) • CROPGRO (for grain legumes) • CROPSIM (for root crops) • Other Crops (for Tomato, Sunflower, Sugarcane, Pasture)

  13. Salient Research Results Obtained by GCISC

  14. Climate Change Projections • Coarse resolution (~300 km x 300 km) projections using Outputs of 17 GCMs for A2 and A1B scenarios • Fine resolution (~50 km x 50 km)projections by dynamic downscaling of GCM outputs for A2 scenario using RCMs: RegCM3 and PRECIS Base period: 1961 – 1990 Futures: 2020s = 2010 – 2039 2050s = 2040 – 2069 2080s = 2070 – 2099

  15. (a) (b) (c) Pakistan and its Northern & Southern Parts a) Pakistan b) Northern Pakistan b) Southern Pakistan

  16. Projected Changes in Average Temperature of Northern and Southern Pakistan For A2 Scenario, based on Ensemble of 13 GCMs (Global ∆T = 4.0 °C in 2100) For A1B Scenario, based on Ensemble of 17 GCMs (Global ∆T = 2.8 °C in 2100)

  17. Projected Temperature Changes in 2080s, ∆T (°C) by GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario • Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan • Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are higher in winter than in summer

  18. Projected Temperature Change (°C) for 2080s by PRECIS(A2 Scenario) Projected Precipitation Change (%) for 2080s by PRECIS(A2 Scenario)

  19. Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Pakistan

  20. Agro-climatic zones used by GCISC for Climate Change Impact Studies on Agriculture

  21. Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing Season Length in Northern and Southern parts of Pakistan

  22. Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan (other factors remaining constant)

  23. Effect of increase in CO2 concentration on wheat yield (other factors remaining constant)

  24. Wheat Yield in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan under A2 Scenarios

  25. Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios

  26. 4400 A2 Scenarios 4200 4000 3800 Rice yield (kg/ha) B2 Scenario 3600 3400 3200 3000 1990 2025 2055 2085 Year Basmati Rice Yield in Southern Semi-arid Plains of Pakistan under A2 and B2 Scenarios Yield decrease by 2085:18% in A2 and 15% in B2 Scenarios

  27. Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources of Pakistan

  28. UPPER INDUS BASIN at Bisham Qila Met Stations: ziarat (3669), yasin (3150) R2 Eff. % Vol. Diff. Calibration (1999-2004) 0.87 0.86 0.32 Validation (1995-1999) 0.87 0.87 -5.16

  29. Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on UIB Flows Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):  Temp: +3°C,  Glacier Area: - 50% Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15% 2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed

  30. Study of HKH Glaciers by GCISC • GCISC has recently agreed to join hands with the GLIMS (Global Land Ice Measurements From Space) project of Southwest Asia Regional Centre, University at Nebraska Omaha, USA to delineate the boundaries of various HKH glaciers using satellite imageries. • An MoU has been signed. • GCISC plan to use the above experience to study expansion/shrinkage behavior of major UIB glaciers, using time series satellite data.

  31. Major Collaborating National Organizations • Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD • Water and Power Development Authority, WAPDA • Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, PARC • Institute of GIS, National Univ. of Sc. & Tech., IGIS/NUST • University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, UAF • University of Arid Agriculture, Rawalpindi, UAAR

  32. Major Collaborating International Partners • APN Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Japan; • ASICTP Abdus Salam Int. Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy; • IIASA Int. Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria; • GLIMS Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Univ. of Nebraska, USA; • GECAFS Global Environment Change and Food System, UK.

  33. Thank You

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