Climate Change Research Division

1. Climate Change Research Division BERAC Spring meeting May 20, 2008

2. Climate Change Research Division

3. DOE Climate Change Research Program Budget FY 2008 Budget, $M ARM Research $14.8 ARM Infrastructure 35.3 Atmospheric Science Program 12.6 Climate Modeling (CCPP) 31.0 Terrestrial Carbon Cycle 13.4 Ecosystem Research 13.2 Integrated Assessment 4.8 Mitigation (Terrestrial Carbon Sequestration) 4.7 Education 1.4 SBIR/STTR 3.8 TOTAL $139.7

4. Climate Change Research Program Organized into four major groups • Climate Change Forcing • Wanda Ferrell, Kiran Alapaty, Rickey Petty & Ashley Williamson and Roger Dahlman • Climate Change Modeling • Anjuli Bamzai • Climate Change Response • Jeff Amthor, Bob Vallario • Climate Change Mitigation • Roger Dahlman

5. Forcing: ARM - Infrastructure • Continuous field measurements and data products that promote the improvement of cloud science in climate models • Currently supports three fixed facilities • One mobile facility • Deployed yesterday

6. Successfully completed the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC) to study properties of arctic aerosols during April and compare with those measured during the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment in October 2004 Forcing – ARM Infrastructure

7. Forcing – ARM Science Program Indirect Effect of Arctic Aerosols in the Infrared • Barrow, Alaska – NSA Site – 6 years of CN measurements • Increased Anthropogenic Aerosols during Arctic spring in Low level stratiform clouds leads to about 4 W/m2 increase in down-welling longwave radiation •  Warmer Arctic (surface & lower atmosphere)ARM PIs: Lubin & Vogelmann, Nature, January 2006

8. Forcing – ARM Science Program Double ITCZ Problem alleviated – JJA Precipitation • The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) predicted double rainfall bands due to spurious second ITCZ • The ARM cloud parameterization was improved to avoid this spurious additional precipitation band across the pacific ocean Obs. Analysis mm/day Existing Convection Scheme New Convection Scheme

9. Forcing – Atmospheric Science Program

10. Forcing – Atmospheric Science Program

11. Measurements CO2 Climate response Experiments Models uncertainties Process Veg C Quantity Process Soil C Quantity Forcing – Terrestrial Carbon Program TCP Components Research Approach CO2/Carbon Climate Forcing Integration Observations Isotopes Atmosphere Terrestrial Ecosystem Flux measurement Photosynthesis NPP, NEP Aggregation Res. time Components Functions Strategy Feedbacks

12. Petascale cloud resolve 750 Tflops 1000 strat chem 340 Tbytes 154 250 biogeochem 70 100 113 32 eddy resolve 52 Computer performance (Tflops) dyn veg 15 23 7 10 Interactive aerosols 11 3 5 2 trop chemistry 1 1 0 5 10 Years NLCF Today Climate Change Modeling Expected outcomes Climate Roadmap (2004 - 2014) 5 years • Fully coupled carbon-climate simulation • Fully coupled sulfur-atmospheric chemistry simulation 10 years • Cloud-resolving30-km spatialresolution atmosphere climate simulation • Fully coupled, physics, chemistry, biologyearth system model

13. Climate Change Modeling Active Chemistry in the Community Climate System Model Pioneering simulations of carbon, ozone, sulfur, ammonia and development of interactive aerosol effects for an Earth System Model Ammonia distributions in mixed layer and troposphere simulated by POP Philip Cameron-Smith, Scott Elliot, David Erickson, Steve Ghan, J-F Lamarque, Art Mirin Time evolution of the model simulated ozone mixing ratio (in ppbv), global and annual average, at 10 hPa. The base simulation is in red (solid and dash), the simulation with 1970 methane is in green and the simulation with 1970 CO2 levels and climatological SSTs is in blue. CAM FV Scaling with tracer count

14. Response - Ecosystem Research • Ecosystem questions, research across scales • Mechanisms  Prediction • Warming, CO2, precipitation

15. Response – Integrated Assessment Research • 57 preapplications and 20 full applications received for new solicitation on impacts/adaptation (~$850k/yr) • Co-funded NAS Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability workshop • Work continues on scenarios and coordination between the IAM, ESM, and IAV communities for a potential IPCC 5th Assessment • Co-funded planned (July 21-22) ANL/University Workshop on uncertainty methods in IA • US CCSP Principals briefed on ORNL study to inventory U.S. and international climate change impacts/adaptation research • Plans underway to explore MIT/NCAR deep dive modeling capabilities using combined elements of models

16. Climate Change Mitigation • CSiTE Paradigm • Scientific and technological advances are possible that will significantly impact the development of improved strategies for the enhancing C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems • CSiTE Goals • Discover & characterize links between critical pathways & mechanisms for creating larger and longer-lasting C pools in terrestrial ecosystems • Establish the scientific basis for enhancing C capture and long-term C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems by developing: • Scientific understanding of C capture & sequestration mechanisms in terrestrial ecosystems across multiple scales from the molecular to landscapes • Conceptual and simulation models for extrapolation of process understanding across spatial & temporal scales • Estimates of C sequestration potential nationally, leading to global estimates • Assessments of environmental impacts & economic implications of C sequestration • CSiTE Approach • Consortium of Labs implement field and Laboratory investigations (ORNL, ANL, PNNL) • Field research focuses on switchgrass systems in concert with Biofuels Program

17. Response - Science Education Global Change Education Program (GCEP) • Summer Undergraduate Research Experience (SURE) • Graduate Research Environmental Fellowships (GREF) Susan Randles, PhD from Princeton receives Marvin L. Wesely Distinguished Graduate Research Environmental Fellowship Award

18. Questions?