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Jan Pretel Czech Hydrometeorological Institute

Vulnerability and adaptation activities in the Czech Republic. Jan Pretel Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. 3 rd EIONET workshop on „ Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation “ Copenhagen, 30.6. – 1.7.2009. Vulnerability research - history.

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Jan Pretel Czech Hydrometeorological Institute

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  1. Vulnerability and adaptation activities in the Czech Republic Jan Pretel Czech Hydrometeorological Institute 3rd EIONET workshop on „Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation“ Copenhagen, 30.6. – 1.7.2009

  2. Vulnerability research - history • 1991 - 1992 Initial national project (rough estimates) • 1993 - 1996 US Country Study Program • outcomes used for the National Climate Change Strategy 1999 • 1999 - 2002 1stMoE project • outcomes used for the National Program to Abate the Climate Change Impacts in the Czech Republic (2003) • 2003 - 2006 several small individual sector oriented projects (not sufficientlywell coordinated) • outcomes used for evaluation of National Program (2005) and preparation new Climate Change Policy (2009?) • 2007 - 20112ndMoE project

  3. UPdate of existing estimates of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in water management, agriculture and forestry sectors and proposals for ADAPTation options (UPADAPT/CZ) Coordination: Czech Hydrometeorological Institute Scientific Cooperation: Charles University • Czech Academy of Science • Water Research Institute • Crop Research Institute • Political • consultancy: Ministry of Environment • Ministry of Agriculture

  4. Project orientation • Regional scenarios update and refine for 2030, 2050 and 2100 • Extreme events variability and frequency analysis • Update of impacts on water, agriculture and forestry sectors • Procedures to reduce sectoral vulnerabilities • Evaluation of previously proposed adaptation options as in National Program (2003) • New proposals for adaptations in 3 main sectors • Recommendations of framework adaptation options for other sectors (biodiversity, energy, industry, human health, tourism, urban areas) • Linkage to new Climate Change Policy (2009?) which includes also National Framework Adaptation Strategy • Research background for the National Adaptation Plan (final 2011?)

  5. Project structure

  6. Regional scenario update • RCM ALADIN – CLIMATE/CZ • emission scenario A1B pro období 1961–2050 • horizontal resolution 25 km • validation on measured data 1961–1990 • time resolution 6 hrs. • average daily TT, RR, TMAX, TMIN • model corrections • regional scenarios • 2030 - A1B, 2050 & 2100 - A1B, A2, B1 • 12 GCM (ENSAMBLES, PRUDENCE, CECILIA)

  7. TT 2030 vs. 1961–1990

  8. RR 2030vs. 1961–1990

  9. Vulnerability in WATERmost sensitive sector to climate change in CZ • average flow rates- decrease from spring to autumn • reduction /disappearanceofwater supplies from snow • enhanced flow rates and groundwater supplies - shift from spring to end of winter • eutrophication • increased evaporation • variability and changes in distribution of precipitation • significantly higher risks of floods / droughts

  10. Vulnerability in AGRICULTURE • lack of water anddroughts in the most productive agricultural areas • agricultural pests and diseases • thermal stress • changes in vegetation period • shift of vegetation period • longer frost-free period • earlier ripening, earlier harvesting • earlier germination and onset of further phenophases • photosynthesis acceleration

  11. Vulnerability in FORESTRY • spruce stands at high risk • lower water balance • extreme weather events - predisposition stressor • fungi, vascular mycosis • insects (spruce bark beetles, etc.) • increased CO2 (effects on growth conditions and activity) • shift of vegetation level • natural changes in species compositions

  12. MAIN AIM OF THE PROJECT =Help to increase the adaptive capacity on national and local levels WATER • water retention & revitalization of water systems • flexibility & effectiveness of water management systems (extreme, dangerous, uncertain situations), safe passage of floods • water quality AGRICULTURE • cultivated and more resistant varieties of agricultural crops & farm animals • new agro technical methods FORESTRY • diversification & mixtures of tree species • eliminate risks of insect pests, vascular mycosis and root rot

  13. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION htpp://www.chmi.cz htpp://www.mzp.cz pretel@chmi.cz

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