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2008 Presidential Election Polls

2008 Presidential Election Polls. February 5 th states. New Jersey. Illinois. California. New York. Tennessee. Just a Few on Tuesday. Information retrieved from. The Road to the White House: Meet The Democratic Candidates.

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2008 Presidential Election Polls

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  1. 2008 Presidential Election Polls February 5th states New Jersey Illinois California New York Tennessee Just a Few on Tuesday Information retrieved from

  2. The Road to the White House: Meet The Democratic Candidates Sen. Joe Biden Sen. Hillary Clinton Sen. Chris Dodd Sen. John Edwards Sen. Mike Grave Rep. Dennis Kucinich Sen. Barack Obama Gov. Bill Richardson

  3. The Road to the White House: Meet The Republican Candidates Mayor Rudy Giuliani Gov. Mike Huckabee Rep. Duncan Hunter Sen. John McCain Rep. Ron Paul Gov. Mitt Romney Rep. Tom Tancredo Sen. Fred Thompson

  4. The Road to the White House:Early Caucuses and Primaries • Frontloaded Calendar • Early start, prospect of significant gap between clinching the nomination and the party convention • Need to raise unprecedented amounts of money to compete in what is essentially a national primary--$100 million in 2007 alone • Retail politics at outset, namely in Iowa and New Hampshire, to lesser extent in South Carolina • SC and Nevada added to mix this year to increase racial representation of the field • Wyoming, Michigan, and Florida refused to obey orders, instigating further frontloading • Iowa kicks off the process on January 3rd, followed by New Hampshire on Tuesday.

  5. The Road to the White House:Tsunami Tuesday • Super Tuesday emerged in 1988 as an attempt to avoid 1984 Democratic disaster---3 candidates split vote in 15 states • Tsunami Tuesday, February 5th, identified by Democratic Party as earliest date for primary with exceptions for IA, NH, SC and NV—20 states, including Illinois, circled this date • Implications: • Big states, many media markets, shift away from retail • Majority of delegates available, potential to clinch nomination • Crowded field, particularly GOP with no clear frontrunner, could split delegates and extend race

  6. The Road to the White House: Press Coverage • Horse race/inside baseball aspect of campaign • Focus on frontrunners • Little attention to issues, candidate comparisons, and qualifications for office • Top issue in the news since start of year, but only 25% of the public has tuned in • Press determines candidate viability • Focus on polls and fundraising • Tone of coverage leads to perception of bias

  7. The Road to the White House:Tsunami Tuesday • Future Fixes: • Delaware Plan: • 4 blocs of states divided by population (smallest to largest) • Month-long window for each grouping (March-June)

  8. The Road to the White House:Tsunami Tuesday • Future Fixes: • Rotating Regional Primary • National Primary • National Primary in June with early voting starting January 1st and regular updates

  9. The Road to the White House:Tsunami Tuesday • Future Fixes: • Delaware Plan: • 4 blocs of states divided by population (smallest to largest) • Month-long window for each grouping (March-June)

  10. The Road to the White House: Party Conventions • Strategic Selection of Sites: red/blue paradigm • Democrats in Denver • GOP in St. Paul • Conventions have essentially become infomercials that network TV covers only in parts—formerly excellent mechanisms of socialization for young people • Potential that Tsunami Tuesday could lead to first floor fight since 1976 GOP Convention • Problem: current set-up is ill-equipped to determine nominee • More probable dilemma: the longest general election campaign in history where those who have tuned in are alienated from the process

  11. The Electoral College • Each state has as many electors as it has Senators and Representatives • Each state’s legislature decides how its electors are chosen • 48 states and DC use a “winner take all” method of assigning delegates

  12. Electoral College • 538 votes are in the electoral college • 270 votes are needed to win the election • In case of a tie or no majority, the House of Reps chooses the President and the Senate chooses the VP

  13. Flaws in the Electoral College • Winner of the popular vote may not become president (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000?) • Nothing requires a State’s presidential electors to vote for the candidate that wins the popular vote in that state • A 3rd party candidate could put an election into the House of Reps

  14. The Electoral College • Common complaints about it: • Its winner-take-all feature. If a candidate wins a state by one vote, he or she wins all the state's electors. • The winner-take-all system favors the large-population states. Ironically, at the same time, the smallest states are over-represented. • Electors are not constitutionally bound. There have been only about a dozen electors who have not followed the voters' instruction in their states.

  15. Ideas to Replace the Electoral College • District Plan: electors would represent congressional districts and support the popular vote winner in their district • The winner of the state at large would get 2 electoral votes • Used by Nebraska and Maine

  16. Ideas to Replace the Electoral College • The Proportional Plan: each candidate would receive the same share of the State’s electoral vote as he received of its popular vote • Proposed recently in Colorado and California

  17. Ideas to Replace the Electoral College • Direct Popular Election: The voters directly elect the President. • Would require Constitutional Amendment

  18. Ideas to Replace the Electoral College • Adds to the current system by giving “bonus” electoral votes to the popular vote winner. • The state would automatically award its electors to the national popular vote winner. • Being considered by Maryland and many other state legislatures

  19. The Road to the White House: Electoral College • A mere three states shifted their allegiance in 2004 from 2000: IA, NM, and NH • As we all know, in 2000 FL decided the election; in 2004 it was OH; some pundits predict that the 2008 battleground will be PA, others suggest MN and WI, with both scenarios conceding OH to the Democrats • Ballot measure in CA, if successful, could result in the transfer of roughly 20 electoral votes to the GOP candidate

  20. The Road to the White House:Polling Data: Democrats (National)

  21. The Road to the White House:Polling Data: Republicans (National)

  22. California

  23. California Pollster Clinton Obama Rasmussen 44% 45% Reuters/C-Span/ Zogby 45% 41% 39% 40% Suffolk

  24. California

  25. California Pollster Huckabee McCain Romney Paul Rasmussen 10% 38% 38% 6% Reuters/ C-Span/ Zogby 37% 5% 34% 12% 10% 39% 24% Suffolk 8%

  26. Illinois

  27. Illinois Pollster Clinton Obama 30% 66% Survey USA 55% 24% Tribune/WGN 51% 40% ARG

  28. Illinois

  29. Illinois Pollster Huckabee McCain Romney Paul 46% 25% 8% 17% Survey USA 20% 4% Tribune/WGN 15% 43% 34% 3% 48% ARG 3%

  30. New York

  31. New York Pollster Clinton Obama PPP (D) 51% 32% Survey USA 56% 38% Quinnipiac 53% 39%

  32. New York

  33. New York Pollster Huckabee McCain Romney Paul PPP (D) 9% 49% 24% 5% Survey USA 8% 56% 23% 4% Quinnipiac 9% 54% 22% 5%

  34. New Jersey

  35. New Jersey Pollster Clinton Obama Survey USA 52% 41% Strategic Vision (R) 47% 41% Quinnipiac 48% 35%

  36. New Jersey

  37. New Jersey Pollster Huckabee McCain Romney Paul 25% 7% 54% 6% Survey USA Strategic Vision (R) 10% 55% 25% 4% Quinnipiac 6% 52% 30% 6%

  38. Tennessee

  39. Tennessee Pollster Clinton Obama PPP (D) 56% 34% Insider Advantage 55% 35% Rasmussen 49% 35%

  40. Tennessee

  41. Tennessee Pollster Huckabee McCain Romney Paul 34% 22% 7% 28% PPP (D) Insider Advantage 30% 32% 29% 6% Rasmussen 32% 18% 8% 23%

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