POL S 299: 2008 Presidential Election

POL S 299: 2008 Presidential Election Political Polling Week 2: January 15, 2008

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Studying Public Opinion • Want to know what people think about an issue or candidate? ASK THEM! • Opinion poll: A method of systematically questioning a small, selected sample of respondents who are deemed representative of the total population • Survey research is a science that involves question wording, sample construction, and interpreting the results

Studying Public Opinion • Survey Research Center at University of Michigan is a leading center for studying political opinions • National Election Study, conducted every two/four years since 1948 • Sampling technique – must be as random and fair as possible. Every individual in the population must have an equal chance of being interviewed so as to not introduce bias into the result

Conducting Survey Research Margin of error – For voters in the U.S. (about 100 million) interviewserror 10,000 1.0% 1,500 2.5% 1,000 3.1% 500 4.4% 200 6.9% 100 9.8%

Conducting Survey Research Types of surveys: • In person, door-to-door • Telephone random digital dial (RDD); • Telephone listed; • Man on the street (exit poll); • Online/email; • Mail survey (census);

Types of Political Surveys 1 – Telephone survey: Live vs. Automated Big difference between using live call house versus automated robo-calls. In live call, an actual person calls and enters your responses into computer, automated is “for Hillary Clinton press one”

Types of Political Surveys 2 – Voter list vs. Self-reported voter status Who is the sample being interviewed? You want to interview voters, but how do you find them? One option is to use the official statewide voter list and call people who are actual registered voters. The second option is to randomly call adults and allow people to “self-report” as registered voters.

Types of Political Surveys 3 – Registered voter vs. Likely voter Okay, so you have a voter on the phone, are they a likely voter? Some surveys interview a random sample of registered voters, some try to narrow it down to likely voters. 4 – Who is a likely voter? Previous vote history, self-reported likelihood of voting, demographics

How valid is the survey? • Who conducted the poll? Are they a neutral and non-partisan organization? • When is the poll in the field? After 5pm, weekends? Cellphones? • Are the interviewers well trained? • Is there any interviewer bias? Political? • How is the survey worded? Are the questions leading, or objective?

Question order effects In 2006 Barack Obama stated he would vote to end the Iraq war, however in 2007 he voted to authorize $300 billion in additional funding for the Iraq War. Do you think this is an inconsistent policy, or two different issues? In the Democratic Party election for President, do you plan to vote for {ROTATE NAMES: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, or Dennis Kucinich}?

Question order effects In the Democratic Party election for President, do you plan to vote for {ROTATE NAMES: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, or Dennis Kucinich}? In 2006 Barack Obama stated he would vote to end the Iraq war, however in 2007 he voted to authorize $300 billion in additional funding for the Iraq War. Do you think this is an inconsistent policy, or two different issues?

Interviewer effects • Social desirability bias – when people feel pressure to give the more politically correct, or socially desirable answer, instead of their true heartfelt opinion • Common in issues dealing with race, gender, class, equality African American interviewer Asks White respondent, “do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Barack Obama?”

Conducting Survey Research • Who is home during the day? • Who is more likely to answer the phone? • Who is more likely to have their number unlisted? • Who is more likely to fill out a mail survey? • Who is more likely to fill out an online survey? • Who is more likely to be too busy? • Question wording – should not be leading, should not give too much information, should not be framed with long introduction, should be careful about placement within survey

What about Exit Polls? • Pre-election surveys are almost always telephone surveys among likely voters • Exit polls are conducted on election day, as people leave the polling place • Self-administered survey, usually very short, one page front/back • Responses tabulated quickly and checked for errors, released on evening news

Problems with Exit Polls • In a telephone survey, almost every voter has an equal, and random chance of being selected • In an exit poll, pollsters only select a small sample of precincts to visit, about 40 • What if those precincts are not an accurate representation of the entire state? • Absentee / early voters not picked up • Interviewer effects: younger interviewers are more successful at recruiting younger and more moderate-to-liberal voters

POL S 299: 2008 Presidential Election