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Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course

Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course. How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions &Attitudes. How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions &Attitudes. and Keep Your Business Profitable!.

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Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course

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  1. Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course

  2. How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions &Attitudes

  3. How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programsto Meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions &Attitudes

  4. and Keep Your Business Profitable!

  5. Welcome Safety Managers

  6. Charles Dodgson, Oxford math lecturer, text author, 1850’s-1880’s

  7. Lewis Carroll writer of children's books 1850’s -1880’s Caricature by Zach Trenholm, SALON Magazine.

  8. Planning Alice in Wonderland

  9. Alice said to the Cat, ‘Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?’

  10. ‘That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,’ said the Cheshire Cat.

  11. ‘I don’t much care where…’ said Alice.

  12. ‘Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,’ said the Cheshire Cat.

  13. ‘…so long as I get somewhere,’ Alice added as an explanation.

  14. ‘Oh, you’re sure to do that,’ said the Cheshire Cat, ‘if you only walk long enough.’

  15. Flight safety program managers need to know which way to go…

  16. & how far to walk to become accidentpreventers…

  17. … and not become accidentinvestigators!

  18. Procedures & Examples of how to produce… Safety Forecast & Plans

  19. Annual Safety Forecast & Annual Safety Plan Safety Forecast & Plans

  20. ...to meet Future Safety Issues, Decisions & Attitudes Safety Forecast & Plans

  21. Paul Miller -Independent safety consultant -B767 & B757 int’l line captain, -Flies for a global logistics company & express package delivery service -Safety program manager: pilot association, 2 airports & a specialized air logistics organization

  22. Paul Miller is now: -Independent safety consultant http://SafetyForecast.com

  23. Safety Forecasts & Plans

  24. Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures

  25. Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating

  26. Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards

  27. Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved

  28. Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged

  29. Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported

  30. Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported -Will affect a local organization…

  31. Safety Forecasts & Plans -Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported -Will affect a local organization… …YOURS!

  32. …All Safety is Local

  33. Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards

  34. Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening

  35. Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science

  36. Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list

  37. Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list -logical inductive reasoning

  38. Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list -logical inductive reasoning -calculation of risk

  39. Annual Safety Forecast -based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list -logical inductive reasoning -calculation of risk -mathematical, graphic modeling

  40. What are Hazards?

  41. What are Hazards? -Probable Risks

  42. What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks

  43. What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People

  44. What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People -Injury & Death

  45. What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People -Injury & Death Property

  46. What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People -Injury & Death Property -Damage & Destruction

  47. What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People $$$$ -Injury & Death Property -Damage & Destruction

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