The Big Picture: Towards a Robust, Scalable Transportation System Concept

1. Stated Preference Analysis of a On-Demand Air ServiceEmploying Very Light Jets JTRP Road SchoolNEXTRANS SessionMarch 25, 2008Dr. Dan DeLaurentisAssistant ProfessorSchool of Aeronautics & Astronautics and System-of Systems Signature AreaPurdue Universityddelaure@purdue.edu765-494-0694

2. The Big Picture: Towards a Robust, Scalable Transportation System Concept Goals: Scalability in . . 1. Throughput & accessibility 2. Robustness & natural adaptation Summary • NASA-funded concept study • High-level, integrated transportation concept (not an aircraft!), representing a view towards a “New NAS” • Behavior + technologies + disruptions • Concept Description • A System-of-systems, generated using Network Theory and Agent-based Modeling to “evolve” new NAS, measure goals, and uncover rules of behavior & network patterns that lead to scalable NAS • Concept Use • Broadly guide technology investment and architecture for NextGen Air Transportation System • Means to understand & continually reassess the constituent complex networks, especially unded non-equilibrium conds.

3. Networks in the real NAS* * Terminology courtesy of Bruce Holmes • Transport network • Nodes: aircraft & ATC • Links: communication • Capacity network • Nodes: airports • Links: service routes • Crew network • Nodes: cities/airports • Links: crew missions • Mobility network • Nodes: trip origins/destinations • Links: PAX trips

4. “On-demand Air Service” (ODAS) • In contrast to scheduled commercial air service, ODAS is envisioned to be available “on-demand”, point-to-point, and more accessible via use of local airports. • The viability of ODAS hinges on three developments: • new aircraft technology, • new business models, and • operational and management policies that allow optimal use of existing and new infrastructure resources. Deriving insights on this third element represents the primary motivation for our study Eclipse Aviation, accessed 25 January 2007 from www.eclipseaviation.com A. Hahn, “Next Generation NASA GA Advanced Concept,” SAE General Aviation Technology Conference and Exhibition, Wichita, KS, 29–31 August 2006, SAE 2006-01-2430.

5. Study Objectives • To build traveler behavior models that predict the probability of individuals switching from the usual preferred mode of intercity transportation to the new ODAS under a range of plausible scenarios in terms of travel distance and cost. • The study conducts an econometric analysis of mode choice to understand the likely preferences of individuals in the ODAS context. • As the ODAS is not yet available, there is a lack of widespread familiarity with it; thus, a stated preference (SP) survey of travelers is conducted to develop the models.

6. The Traveler Agent View of the Survey Instrument

7. Survey Conduct • The Stated Preference (SP) survey was executed through an on-site questionnaire to elicit the traveler attitudes to a new ODAS for intercity travel. • 372 Samples; representative cross-section of population • The choice set for the individual consists of the current preferred mode and the new ODAS mode. • Analysis allows us to understand the respondent preferences to a range of plausible values.

8. Two Sets of Switching Models Developed • Single combination switching models • Dependent variable: whether to switch (or not) to the ODAS from the current preferred mode. • Explanatory variables: socioeconomic variables and variables related to the new ODAS (e.g. its location). • Trip purpose switching models • six switching decisions for personal trips are used to construct a single personal trips switching model • six switching decisions for personal trips are used to construct a single personal trips switching model • Cost is now explanatory variable

9. Sample Results Willingness –to-switch data Model Prediction results

10. Findings and Implications (1) • Travel distance, service fare, and the ODAS access location are key factors influencing user switching decisions. • The doorstep-to-doorstep travel time savings under ODAS increase with distance, making it a more attractive mode for moderate-distance intercity trips. • In terms of service fare, while there is a clear preference for the ODAS in several scenarios, the fare ranges need to be carefully determined by operators to achieve the desired market share. • It appears that the price point differentiator has not been reached with employed fare ranges; this provides useful insight to operators and aircraft manufacturers on target fare and cost ranges of future VLJ designs.

11. Findings and Implications (2) • ODAS location is a key determinant of its operational viability, and has significant implications for policy-makers, regional planners, operators, and businesses. • The resulting new air traffic network patterns have fundamental implications for the evolution of the air traffic control systems under NGATS. • Also, there may be consequent needs in terms of updating the infrastructure in the vicinity of local airports to increase accessibility to the ODAS service and ensure robust performance of the associated surface transportation system.