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ENERGY MARKET FORECAST FOT THE BALKANS IN AN ERA OF RAPID CHANGES AND ENERGY TRANSITION

This forecast predicts the energy source trends in the Balkans up to 2040, highlighting the need for energy growth and efficiency, the shift towards electricity in transport, gas production vs. petroleum production, and the forecast for electricity production costs. It also discusses the energy challenges in the Balkan region, the high unemployment rate, and the potential for the Balkans to become an industrial region of high potential within Europe.

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ENERGY MARKET FORECAST FOT THE BALKANS IN AN ERA OF RAPID CHANGES AND ENERGY TRANSITION

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  1. ENERGY MARKET FORECAST FOT THE BALKANS IN AN ERA OF RAPID CHANGES AND ENERGY TRANSITION Davor Stern, B.Sc. Petroleum Engineering May 2019.

  2. Forecastup to 2040…

  3. Energy sourceforecastup to 2040 • Need for energy will grow by 25%, mainly in developing countries and India in particular • Energy efficiency will have to grow in order to keep the energy growth need by another 25% • Oil peak production is expected in 2025, by when the start of prevailing usage of electricity in transport is expected

  4. Gas production vs. PeTroleumproduction

  5. Gas production vs. PeTroleumproduction • Since 2010. gas production grows significantly compared to oil production. This trend will continue. • Mainlydue to vs shale gas production • Massiveshale gas production in europenotlikelyhappen

  6. Notpossible to predict future oilprices

  7. Forecast to electricityproductionCost in theusup to 2040…

  8. Forecast to electricityproductionCost in theusup to 2040… • Coal declines • Oil declines • Nuclear stable • Renewables significantly higher • Gas usage soars

  9. region • Europe is interconnected with a network of oil, gas and electricity transmission lines • There is a huge disbalance between the West and East, which is quite understandable what has to be highlighted is the „black hole” of South-East Europe or the Balkans.

  10. Europe bynight – balkandark spot

  11. Map Of The European Natural Gas Network

  12. European crudeoilpipelinesmap

  13. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

  14. From the charts, it is clearly visible that the Balkan region is energy short. • At the same time, the regional countries have a very high unemployment rate. • By putting into perspective that two elements we could conclude that bringing more available and affordable energy the Balkans could become an industrial region of high potential level within Europe and, hopefully in the future of the European Union.

  15. INDUSTRIAL ENERGY RELEASES HUMAN ENERGY

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