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Tornados and Climate Change

Tornados and Climate Change. Michael Pateman And Drew Vankat. Introduction. Investigation of tornadic frequency and magnitude in the United States in relation to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and US climate change. Hypothesis.

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Tornados and Climate Change

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  1. Tornados and Climate Change Michael Pateman And Drew Vankat

  2. Introduction • Investigation of tornadic frequency and magnitude in the United States in relation to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and US climate change

  3. Hypothesis • Global warming, along with increased El Nino and La Nina cycles mean more plentiful and powerful tornadoes • But…What role does technology play in increased detection?

  4. Research Relevance • If a relationship with climate cycles can be found, perhaps emergency funding can be set aside in advance for victims • Findings can be translated to other weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, flooding, or hurricanes • Authorities can take necessary precautions to minimize economic and human losses • Provide a more convincing argument for the need to rethink the way we treat our environment.

  5. What is a tornado? • An intense, rotating column of air extending from the base of a thunderstorm cloud to the ground. www.spc.noaa.gov

  6. ENSO • The ENSO (El Nino/ Southern Oscillation) cycle refers to the coherent, large-scale fluctuation of ocean temperatures, rainfall, atmospheric circulation, vertical motion and air pressure across the tropical Pacific. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

  7. What is El Nino? • A disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific • Development of abnormally warm sea surface temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific • Consequences can include increased rainfall in some areas and extreme drought in others

  8. What is La Nina? • Characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific • USA: warmer southwest winters, colder Northwest

  9. Materials and methods • Data retrieved on tornado and ENSO activity • Downloaded into Excel, Statview, and Cricket Graph

  10. Tornado Frequency by Decade Spearman Rank Correlation p-values: Texas-Nebraska p=.1096 Texas-Ohio p=.0719 Nebraska-Ohio p=.0719

  11. Frequency of Tornadoes in El-Nino Years Spearman Rank Correlation p-values: Texas-Nebraska p=.4902 Texas-Ohio p=.1837 Texas-USA p=.0170 Nebraska-Ohio p=1983 Nebraska-USA p=.0785 Ohio-USA p=.1223

  12. Tornado Frequency in non-El-Nino Years Spearman Rank Correlation p-values: Texas-Nebraska p=.1096 Texas-Ohio p=.1615 Texas-USA p=.0719 Nebraska-Ohio p=.3173 Nebraska-USA p=.2301 Ohio-USA p=.0719

  13. Tornado Frequency in La Nina Years Spearman Rank Correlation p-values: Texas-Nebraska p=.0422 Texas-Ohio p=.1474 Texas-USA p=.0376 Nebraska-Ohio p=.1117 Nebraska-USA p=.0751 Ohio-USA p=.0438

  14. Tornado Frequency in non-La-Nina Years Spearman Rank Correlation p-values: Texas-Nebraska p=.0719 Texas-Ohio p=.0719 Texas-USA p=.0455 Nebraska-Ohio p=.1096 Nebraska-USA p=.0719 Ohio-USA p=.0719

  15. Texas Tornado Frequency

  16. Nebraska Tornado Frequency

  17. Ohio Tornado Frequency

  18. Data • http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwEvent~Storms • All Tornado Data downloaded from this site.

  19. Tentative conclusions • Overall increase in tornado frequency • P-values indicate little relationship in frequency for El-Nino years • P-Values indicate a relationship in frequency for La-Nina years

  20. Still To Come… • Spearman Rank Correlations for tornado frequency per year in each state • Analyze magnitude

  21. Future Research • Incorporate climate change and global warming • Any questions or suggestions?

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