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Climate change in the UK

Climate change in the UK. UKCIP : 4 scenarios based on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions Baseline 1961-1990 looking to 2020s, 2050s, & 2080s Consensus that Temperatures will increase, by 2050 at least 1.5’C; by 2080 perhaps as much as 4.5’C More very hot days, fewer cold days

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Climate change in the UK

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  1. Climate change in the UK • UKCIP : 4 scenarios based on different levels of greenhouse gas emissions • Baseline 1961-1990 looking to 2020s, 2050s, & 2080s • Consensus that • Temperatures will increase, by 2050 at least 1.5’C; by 2080 perhaps as much as 4.5’C • More very hot days, fewer cold days • Summers will be drier, decrease in soil moisture • Winters will be wetter by up to 30%; rain will fall on fewer days • More dramatic weather events such as floods and storms • Sea levels will rise, storm surges become more important • Risk of flooding will double by 2080s

  2. Stern Review The economics of climate change • Costs of stabilising the climate are significant but manageable; delay would be dangerous and much more costly. • Need annual emissions brought down by 80% from current levels. • Investing 1% GDP now could prevent losing at least 5% and possibly up to 20% global GDP each year every year. • Stern identified £30bn opportunity for businesses that respond to the challenge. • Mitigation readily translates into resource efficiency and directly to bottom line – easy to sell. • Adaptation more associated with planning to avoid climate-related risk – harder for businesses to grasp. • Recommended future international frameworks to include: • Emissions trading • Technology cooperation • Action to reduce deforestation • Adaptation

  3. Climate Change White Paper • Statutory Carbon targets built into legislation • Carbon budgets including forward look • Carbon Trading mechanisms • Climate Change Panel to advise HMG on how to meet targets • Following consultation proposed change to clause 50 to give power for Secretary of State to require local authorities to • Assess current and predicted impact of climate change in relation to local authorities’ functions • Prepare proposals and policies for adapting to climate change in exercise of functions • Co-operate with other authorities for that purpose

  4. New Performance Framework • Comprehensive Area Assessments • Area risk assessment identifying risks to outcomes and the effectiveness of their management • A scored use of resources judgement for public bodies in the area • A scored direction of travel judgement for each local authority in the area • Publication of performance data for each area against the set of (198) national indicators • Local Area Agreements • Agreement between central and local government • 35 (+16 statutory education) priority targets • Duty to co-operate applies to named public sector bodies • Duty to have regard to targets in operations

  5. Local Area Agreements • 3 specific climate change indicators • NI 185 mitigation (LA operations as % CO2 reduction) • NI 186 mitigation (by area as CO2/per capita) • NI 188 adaptation • Others directly related to mitigation: fuel poverty (NI187); traffic congestion (NI167); modal shift (NI 175, NI 177, NI198); waste management (NI 191, NI192 & NI193) • Others related to adaptation flood and coastal erosion (NI189); biodiversity (NI197); • Others related to green spaces Overall satisfaction with area (NI 5 and NI 138); adult participation in sport (NI 8); perceptions of anti-social behaviour (NI 17); Obesity (NI 55, NI 56); Young people’s participation in positive activities (NI 110); Mortality rates (NI 120 – NI 121); improved street and environmental cleanliness (NI 195 and NI 196)

  6. Local Area Agreements • Mitigation indicators 185 or 186 being proposed for all LAAs • Adaptation indicator (NI 188) being adopted by majority of LAAs. All LAAs benefitting from share of £50K for Local Climate Impact Profiles (LCLIP) at LAA area level. Past look at weather events which have lessons and indicate risks for future. • Remember what has happened • System to log what does happen • Plan for what will happen

  7. Climate Change Regional Programme of Action • Led by Assembly/GOEM/emda/environment agency, consultation proposal, county meetings Emerging Priorities • Enabling a low carbon future, resilient to the impacts of climate change through planning, design and sustainable construction • Improving business performance through resource efficiency, new market opportunities and management of climate risks • Targeting investment to ensure a resilient and well-functioning environmental and green infrastructure • Engaging and building capacity among all regional stakeholders to adapt to climate impacts and promote behavioural change

  8. Protect and enhance environmental capacity • 3 Targeting investment to ensure a resilient and well-functioning environmental and green infrastructure • Supporting biodiversity • Minimising loss and damage of habitat • Working with natural tidal processes to conserve coastal assets • Avoiding inappropriate development in areas at risk of flooding • Better management of region’s soil and water assets • Greater adoption of precision agriculture techniques

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