Human Traits: Not So Simple After All

Sermons From Science -- Mar 2018科学布道-- 2018年3月 Sermons from Science have been published in both YouTube under the name “Pastor Chui” and their PowerPoint slides and corresponding videos in the website http://ChristCenterGospel.org since 2011. Just type “Pastor Chui” in Google Search. The contents of this presentation were taken from different sources and in the Internet. May God have all the glory. Pastor Chui http://ChristCenterGospel.org ckchui1@yahoo.com 1/1/2020 1

Human Traits Not So Simple After All人的特质并不那么简单 • The icr.org website published the article written by Dr. Jeffrey Tomkins on January 31, 2018. I now quote his article below: • “Many people were told in biology class that some basic human traits reflect simple genetic principles. One example is how earlobes are attached. When I was in high school, our biology teacher told us to examine each other’s ears and see how many had attached versus unattached earlobes. Attached earlobes do not have a lobe that dangles. In general, there were many more students with unattached than attached earlobes. We were told the attached variant is an example of a classic single-gene recessive trait, an explanation that makes genetics appear overly simple. 1/1/2020 2

Human Traits Not So Simple After All人的特质并不那么简单 • “However, some scientists have been questioning this oversimplified paradigm since well before the days of modern genomics and DNA analysis. As early as 1937, one scientist pointed out that earlobe attachment could be a multi-gene trait.1 Thanks to modern research techniques that help reveal the mysteries of the genome, we now know that even the concept of what clearly defines a single gene is blurred by unimaginable and unexpected complexity.2 A recent research report on the classic textbook idea that a single gene controls earlobe attachment has once again reached the standard conclusion of the genomics era—genetic activity appears to be far more complex than previously thought. 1/1/2020 3

Human Traits Not So Simple After All人的特质并不那么简单 • “We now know that even the concept of what clearly defines a single gene is blurred by unimaginable and unexpected complexity. • “In this new earlobe genetics study, researchers used DNA sequencing data and earlobe measurements from 74,660 people with European, Latin American, or Chinese ancestry. By associating DNA sequences across the genome with the ear development patterns in people, the researchers identified 49 genomic regions related to the attached earlobe trait. They also sequenced the products of genes turned on during ear development, which confirmed that the many different genes they discovered in their DNA trait association study were in fact located among many different associated regions in the genome. The authors of the paper state, “These genes provide insight into the complex biology of ear development.”3 1/1/2020 4

Human Traits Not So Simple After All人的特质并不那么简单 • “This study follows close on the heels of two other human genetics studies that debunk the previously held belief that skin color is controlled by only a few major genes.4,5 Both studies used human subjects from countries in Africa, the continent with the largest spectrum of skin color diversity in the world. One study found that six major genes contribute to 30% of the total variability in skin color.4 The other 70% of the genetic contribution to color variability was from numerous other genes and regions around the genome. In the second study, researchers found that 15 different genes make major contributions to skin color.5 These skin color studies fit well with the biblical narrative of how human people groups developed as a result of the dispersion at the Tower of Babel, as discussed in a recent ICR news post.6 1/1/2020 5

Human Traits Not So Simple After All人的特质并不那么简单 • “Only an all-wise Creator could be responsible for engineering these amazing systems. • “The oversimplified evolutionary paradigm does not fit well with human genome studies that consistently show ever-increasing levels of complexity. Seemingly simple traits turn out to be not simple at all due to the networked interconnectivity of genes in complex dynamic systems throughout the genome. Only an all-wise Creator could be responsible for engineering these amazing systems.” • Thank God for the contribution of Dr. Tomkins. 1/1/2020 6

Gloria Deo 愿荣耀归上帝 1/1/2020 7

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • The AnswersInGenesis.org website published the article written by by Troy Lacey on February 1, 2018. I now quote his article below: • “Abstract: Recently, some revisionist historians have attempted to label the terms origin science or historical science as YEC inventions for the sole purpose of discrediting evolution. If this is not a direct accusation, then it is at least a statement that YECs use these terms as a wedge to make a distinction between historical sciences versus operational science, so as to cause people to reject the age of the earth, while still affirming experimental science and technology. A recent example is an article on the BioLogos website titled “Is Historical Science Reliable?”1 Another strategy is to create strawman arguments and make the blanket claim that YECs are saying that science cannot tell us anything about what happened in the past, and that to make such claims would deny us the ability to know anything about the past, including even what we ate for breakfast.2 But is this really a fair argument? 1/1/2020 9

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “At-a-Glance • “The terms historical science and origin science were not invented by young-earth creationists (YECs). • “Usage of such terms goes back as far as 1935 to distinguish between different kinds of scientific disciplines. • “Specific usage of origin science versus operational science was coined in the 1980s, but not by YECs. • “Creationists do not deny that past events can be known, but we do affirm that they must be interpreted through the lens of Scripture. • “Attempts to claim that YECs invented the distinctions between historical or origin science versus operational science are examples of revisionist history and are meant to cloud the issues. 1/1/2020 10

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “Did YECs invent the terms origin science or historical science, and if so did we invent these terms just to discredit evolution? Do we deny that we can know anything about the past because we weren’t there to observe it, or that any event in the past is unknowable? And do those who accept evolution use origins and/or historical science terms as descriptors themselves? (Spoiler alert: yes they do). Even BioLogos does.3 1/1/2020 11

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “Origin of Terms • “Let’s address the question of whether YECs invented the terms origin science or historical science first. We’ll also examine whether we first used those terms to differentiate between operational or experimental science, and if they were invented merely to discredit evolution. • “Ironically, in order to get to the root of this, we have to look to the past. Yes, it appears that we can know some things about the past. Of course we have historical documents to draw upon, so assumptions and interpretation can be kept in check. In any coverage of a subject this broad in a short article, an exhaustive search of papers, books, and articles on this subject is just not possible. But I will list some of the earliest mentions I have found of these terms. 1/1/2020 12

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “In the October–December 1935 issue of History and Science In Anthropology Volume 4, by A. L. Kroeber, I found some very interesting quotes germane to this topic. • “This is again a result of the exact or laboratory science point of view. These sciences recognize fields or departments, like organic chemistry or spectroscopic physics, and differences of technique, but they do not recognize schools differing in method; there is only one method in physical science. By contrast there is something immature, or partisan and incomplete, in the very fact of the anthropological schools advocating each its program. In reality they differ, and legitimately enough, in objective; and that means that they differ at bottom in what they are most interested in. But from this they have too often proceeded to make propaganda not only for their interests but for their results, until in extreme cases special methods have been advocated almost like panaceas. . . .4 1/1/2020 13

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “Here again we have the science approach. A physicist or chemist does not give a descriptive picture of what he encounters in nature. He starts with a problem; then presents such data as bear on it, and no others. Of course this method cannot be transferred directly to cultural anthropology because this is not a laboratory discipline; and in general it is not feasible to deal in each case only with those data immediately pertinent to the problem; sooner or later the descriptive context of the whole culture or set of cultures in which the problem lies must be made available. . . .5 • “For the sake of brevity, several other pertinent sections are included in the footnotes below from this publication.6,7 • “Historical determinations are in their essence subjective findings; and at best they only approximate truth or certainty. 1/1/2020 14

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “I think that the above quotes show that the terms (at least as Kroeber used them) are sufficient to delineate that experimental science and historical science were used at least as far back as 1935, and that they were used in differentiation of each other. This was not a YEC paper, nor was it by an antievolutionist, but rather from someone who accepted Darwinian evolution.8 Kroeber was also staunch in his position that historical science was much more tentative in its conclusions than experimental science. 1/1/2020 15

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “Kroeber doesn’t use the term origin science though, sticking strictly to historical science.9 The terminology of origin science (and operational science) seems to have cropped up in the 1980s. Two men seem to have started using the terms and then began to contrast them with experimental or operational science: Dr. Norman Geisler and Dr. Charles Thaxton. Dr. Geisler is not a young-earth creationist, accepting billions of years of cosmic and geological timeframes.10 Dr. Thaxton’s position on the age of the earth and universe is a little harder to evaluate, but he has stated that he prefers intelligent design to creationism, and is a member of the Discovery Institute. While he opposes Darwinian evolution, I think it is safe to say that he would not describe himself as a YEC. 1/1/2020 16

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “It appears that Dr. Geisler’s first thoughts on the differentiation of origins and operation science began in his July 1982 book Miracles and Modern Thought. Although he used the term origins and discussed the inherent (but misguided) adherence to strict naturalism by secular science, he never actually established any distinct terminology. • “Science does not have sovereign claim to explain all events as natural, but only those that are regular, repeatable, and/or predictable. Scientific law does not include anomalies, for by its very nature an anomaly (no law) has no law covering it. And to assume that all anomalies do have unknown covering laws is to beg the question in favor of naturalism. Science as science must not assume this, since it has no scientific grounds for such an assumption. The only scientific grounds for doing so would be that the event could be repeated and/or predicted (and in the case of miracles, it cannot). 1/1/2020 17

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “Second, science has a right to expect that natural laws (i.e. natural forces) will govern the function of the world. But science has no right to demand that these same natural laws can account for the origin of every event in the world. . . . • “When science demands that the genesis of all events must be natural, and not simply the governance of these events, then it has ceased being science; it has become philosophical naturalism. . . .11 1/1/2020 18

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “For scientists believe that the origin of the universe and the origin of life are singular and unrepeatable events. But if the past can be known only in terms of the processes of the present, then there would be no scientific basis for knowledge about these origins, since they are singular and unrepeatable events of the past.12 • “Geisler’s 1982 book The Creator in the Courtroom: Scopes II is the first one in which he delineates the differences between origin science and operational science, even though he doesn’t use the terms specifically. 1/1/2020 19

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “The other ambiguity which emerged in the trial is what is meant by “science”. In the normal (strict) sense of the word, something must be observable and repeatable to be subject to scientific tests. But in this sense evolution (as a general theory) is not “science.” The origin of life and new life forms were singular, unobservable events of the past. No observers were there and the original events are not repeatable. So even general evolution must be understood in some “special” (broader) sense, if it is to be considered science, for scientists do not have the original events (of origins) against which they can test their theories. Hence their ideas about origins are not based on observations. . . . They are speculations. • “When there is no direct access to the original event, the best scientists can do is to offer speculative reconstructions of the past. 1/1/2020 20

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “Science in the narrow sense involves some observable or repeatable event against which we can measure our theories. But when there is no direct access to the original event, the best scientists can do is to offer speculative reconstructions of the past. These imaginative reconstructions cannot be either verified or falsified in a strict scientific way. They may be plausible or implausible, but they are not scientifically provable . . . because they cannot be checked over against the original event. Thus all “theories” or models about unrepeatable origins can at best be “science” only in some broad sense of the term. They are science in the sense that we speak of “forensic science.” What happens in court is that attorneys offer plausible or implausible reconstructions of the crime based on the available clues. But if there were no eyewitnesses, then we can never be certain what actually happened. They can however, offer a speculative model of what might have happened. 1/1/2020 21

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “Now in this broad speculative sense of the word “science” a creationist’s view is just as scientific as an evolutionist’s view. Unfortunately, what happened in Arkansas [McClean vs. Arkansas, 1982] was the application of a double-standard. Evolution as a general theory was considered science on a broad definition of “science” and creation was considered unscientific on a narrow definition of science. If the courts are ever to recognize the scientific character of creationism, then this kind of “double-dealing” must be avoided, for creationism is no less scientific than is evolutionism.13 1/1/2020 22

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “It should be noted that in early 1983, Dr. Geisler used the term science of origin in his book Is Man the Measure? An Evaluation of Contemporary Humanism. But again, he did not definitively state that origin science and operational science are two different things. • “This means that in the strict sense of the word science (involving observed and repeatable events) there can be no science of origins. We simply do not have any direct access to the original events by which we can test our theories about them.14 1/1/2020 23

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-1起源与运营科学的首次使用-1 • “But Geisler’s (and coauthor Kerby Anderson’s) 1987 book Origin Science was the first one in which he laid out the terms, explained them and contrasted the concepts or origin science and operation science. • “It is the proposal of this book that a science which deals with origin events does not fall within the category of empirical science, which deals with observed regularities in the present. Rather, it is more like a forensic science, which concentrates on unobserved singularities of the past. . . .15 (To be continued in Part 2) 1/1/2020 24

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “The great events of origin were singularities. The origin of the universe is not recurring. Nor is the origin of life, or the origin of major new forms of life. These are past singularities over which creationists and evolutionists debate. Evolutionists posit a secondary natural cause for them; creationists argue for a supernatural primary cause. The proposal of this book is that both “evolutionist” and “creationist” views on origin should be brought into the domain of singularity science about the past and that each should be judged by the principles of that kind of science. Such a science about past singularities will be called “science of origin,” or “origin science” (Thaxton, Bradley, and Olsen, 204). It will be differentiated from science about present regularities (called operational science) in that the latter focuses on a recurring pattern of events in the present against which its theories can be tested: the former does not. . . .16 1/1/2020 27

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “The creation-evolution discussion will be fruitless unless the present equivocal use of the term science is rejected. • “It is our hope that this proposal for treating the study of origins under the special category of origin science—whether by evolutionists or creationists—will reopen meaningful dialogue on this age-old debate. At least the “ships” of evolution and creation need not pass in the night; adherents of each view can discuss the issue of origins in the light of this distinction between origin science and operation science. In view of this it seems evident that the creation-evolution discussion will be fruitless unless the present equivocal use of the term science is rejected. . . .17 1/1/2020 28

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “Gradually the study of the operational laws of the universe was extended farther and farther back until it included origins. In this way the role of a primary (supernatural) cause of the various origin events was gradually squeezed out of a scientific study of the past. In effect, secondary (natural) causes could account for origins, and there was no need to suppose that a primary cause had intervened. . . .18 • “The domain of origin science was taken over by operation science. Even the unique, unrepeated events of the origin of the universe, of life, and of new life forms were treated as though they were observed regularities in the present. The difference between unobserved past singularities (origin science) and observed present regularities (operation science) was obscured. The search for natural (secondary) causes for how the universe and life operate in the present was gradually extended to how they originated in the past.19 1/1/2020 29

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “Geisler and Anderson’s 1987 Origin Science book drew from Thaxton’s 1984 book The Mystery of Life’s Origin, which they even quoted in their book. In my “Deceitful or Distinguishable Terms” article, I referred to Thaxton’s book as being the first one to make major use of this concept, contrasting operational (observational) science with origins (historical) science. Technically I think this is still correct, (though Kroeber definitely preceded this in thought and with the terms historical and experimental science) since Geisler may have touched on the concepts in 1982 and 1983. However, he did not definitely state that there were two kinds of science termed origin and operation until 1987. The following (lengthy) quote from The Mystery of Life’s Origin (204–205) seems to be the first recorded usage of both origin science and operational science contrasted against each other as different categories of science. 1/1/2020 30

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “On the other hand an understanding of the universe includes some singular events, such as origins. Unlike the recurrent operation of the universe, origins cannot be repeated for experimental test. The beginning of life, for example, just won’t repeat itself so we can test our theories. In the customary language of science, theories of origins (origin science) cannot be falsified by empirical test if they are false, as can theories of operation science. 1/1/2020 31

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “How then are origins investigated? The method of approach is appropriately modified to deal with unrepeatable singular events. The investigation of origins may be compared to sleuthing an unwitnessed murder, as discussed in Chapter 11. Such scenarios of reconstruction may be deemed plausible or implausible. Hypotheses of origin science, however, are not empirically testable or falsifiable since the datum needed for experimental test (namely, the origin) is unavailable. In contrast to operation science where the focus is on a class of many events, origin science is concerned with a particular event, i.e., a class of one. 1/1/2020 32

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “When Galileo’s ideas on acceleration (operation science) were presented, observers were not limited to mere plausibility. They could actually empirically falsify the claims of Galileo had they been false. Indeed Pasteur’s falsification of spontaneous generation was possible only because it was said to recur in the domain of operation science. Appropriate testing against nature falsified the notion of spontaneous generation. The best we can ever hope to achieve with wrong ideas about origins is to render them implausible. By the nature of the case, true falsification is out of the question. 1/1/2020 33

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “In spite of this fundamental difference between origin science and operation science, there is today very little recognition of it, and an almost universal convention of excluding the divine from origin science as well as from operation science. This has occurred without any careful prior analysis of the problem to see if the exclusion is valid in the case of origin science. It seems to have been merely assumed. . . . 1/1/2020 34

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “There are significant and far-ranging consequences in the failure to perceive the legitimate distinction between origin science and operation science. Without the distinction we inevitably lump origin and operation questions together as if answers to both are sought in the same manner and can be equally known. Then, following the accepted practice of omitting appeals to divine action in recurrent nature, we extend it to origin questions too. The blurring of these two categories partially explains the widely held view that a divine origin of life must not be admitted into the scientific discussion, lest it undermine the motive to inquire and thus imperil the scientific enterprise.20 1/1/2020 35

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “This is even more clearly seen on page 206: • “Why then is Special Creation so summarily dismissed by nearly all writers, especially since it is typically listed as a theoretical alternative for the origin of life? Our analysis suggests that failure to properly distinguish origin science and operation science has led many to dismiss creation.21 • “Secular Sources • “But these examples are not isolated incidents; even secular textbooks and online classes make such statements regarding historical science and how it differs from operational or experimental science. Geology is one such example, in which physical geology is differentiated from historical geology in a number of secular sources. 1/1/2020 36

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “Geology is traditionally divided into two broad areas. Name and describe these two subdivisions. • “These are physical and historical geology, often taught as separate, introductory courses in a one-year sequence. Physical geology deals with the materials (minerals, rocks, water, etc.) that comprise Earth; with processes of rock formation and decomposition; with how surface morphology is altered by the various agents of erosion; and with how rocks deform, lands are uplifted or lowered, continents moved, and ocean basins opened and closed through tectonic forces and lithospheric plate movements. 1/1/2020 37

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “Historical geology places origins of rock masses, integrated effects of geologic processes, interpretations of ancient environments and life forms, and past tectonic movements into the chronological framework of the geologic time scale. Thus geology is an historical science; passage of time and evolutionary concepts are vitally important.22 • “Geology is divided into two broad areas—physical geology and historical geology. 1/1/2020 38

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “Geology is divided into two broad areas—physical geology and historical geology. Physical geology includes the examination of the materials that make up Earth and the possible explanations for the many processes that shape our planet. Processes below the surface create earthquakes, build mountains, and produce volcanoes. In contrast to physical geology, the aim of historical geology is to understand Earth’s long history. • “Historical geology tries to establish a timeline of the vast number of physical and biological changes that have occurred in the past. . . . We study physical geology before historical geology because we must first understand how Earth works before we try to unravel its past.23 1/1/2020 39

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “The discipline of geology is generally divided into two broad areas—physical geology and historical geology. Physical geology is the study of Earth materials, such as minerals and rocks, as well as the processes operating within Earth and on its surface. Historical geology examines the origin and evolution of Earth, its continents, oceans, atmosphere, and life.24 • “It is evident from the above quotes that historical geology is differentiated from physical geology, and this from college textbooks or online testing sources. It should now be readily apparent that the charge that YECs merely invented and exclusively use these “historical” or “origin” terms for nefarious reasons is debunked. But what about the contention that YECs claim that we can know nothing about the past from science? This claim can also be falsified, as many articles on our website confirm. 1/1/2020 40

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “Examining the Past • “For example, the usefulness of forensic science is detailed here. The humanity of Neanderthals was predicted by creation researchers, based on Scripture and its history, corroborated by collected fossils, and confirmed by genetics. Secular researchers have even reluctantly admitted (but were surprised to learn) that those who reject evolution still have a high regard for science. • “We don’t ignore evidence, or throw up our hands and say anything in the past is unknowable, but we interpret the evidence in light of revealed history. 1/1/2020 41

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “We have often stated that it is the interpretation of past events that is the point of contention, not the past itself being “unknowable.” It may be helpful here to reiterate our view that we seek to understand these things through the examination of the physical evidence in light of the revelation of Scripture and the constraints Scripture gives. We don’t ignore evidence, or throw up our hands and say anything in the past is unknowable, but we interpret the evidence in light of revealed history. Articles about the formation of the Grand Canyon, the Channeled Scablands, and the fossil record all point to this. In the past year, to commemorate the 500th anniversary of the Reformation, we have written articles on its importance and on key figures like Luther and Zwingli. These are hardly things to be written about if we claimed that the past was unknowable. Our point being that we have historical documents and records of eyewitnesses which confirm and testify of past events. This has bearings on origins, as we have the eyewitness account of the One who created all things—that being the historical record of Scripture. 1/1/2020 42

First Usage of Origins vs. Operational Science-2起源与运营科学的首次使用-2 • “Ultimately the only “wedge issue” from those who accept a biblical account of creation is that of who are you going to believe? Man’s word or God’s Word? Without God’s Word, we have no basis for morality, sanctity of life, freedom, hope, or purpose, and no foundation for understanding the history of the earth and the universe. And, most importantly, without God’s Word, we don’t have the life-changing gospel of Jesus Christ. Charges of supposedly invented or misused terminology are thinly veiled attempts to distract and conflate this most-important issue.” • Thank God for the contribution of Troy Lacey. 1/1/2020 43

The End of Global Warming?全球变暖的结束？ • The AnswersInGenesis.org website published the article written by Dr. Steven Gollmer on April 1, 2016; last featured February 4, 2018. I now quote his article below: • “A century ago, scientists feared global cooling. Now they fear global warming. What do the numbers really show us? “Global cooling is the talk of the town. “Will we slip into another Ice Age?” “Will the earth be able to support its population if the global temperatures continue to drop?” “Could increasing carbon dioxide emissions save the day by offsetting the cooling?” 1/1/2020 46

The End of Global Warming?全球变暖的结束？ • “You might think this is a parody of the current global warming discussion. However, global cooling truly was a serious concern at the end of the 1800s. The figure at the center of the controversy was Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist who was the first to investigate the effects of carbon dioxide (CO2) on climate. In a famous 1896 paper, he proposed that increasing CO2 gas in the atmosphere would increase surface temperatures (now called the greenhouse effect). The gas absorbs some of the infrared radiation from the earth and redirects it back to the surface, adding to the earth’s heat. 1/1/2020 47

The End of Global Warming?全球变暖的结束？ • “Arrhenius’ opponents claimed that CO2 has already reached its maximum impact (called a saturation point), and any increase would have no significant impact. • “What does this century-old debate have to do with us today? Revisiting these still-unresolved questions may prevent modern politicians from making one of the greatest mistakes in our times. • “Revisiting these still-unresolved questions may prevent modern politicians from making one of the greatest mistakes in our times. • “In a December 2015 meeting in Paris, 195 countries adopted the first-ever legally binding agreement to limit CO2 emissions. The agreement attempts to limit global warming to below 2°C (3.6°F) above pre-industrial temperatures. It enters into force in 2020, at an estimated cost of hundreds of billions of dollars per year. 1/1/2020 48

The End of Global Warming?全球变暖的结束？ • “News reports going into this conference stated that this may be the last chance to limit the most serious effects of global warming. But is the situation that dire? • “The difference between the earth’s annual temperature and the average for the past century has been documented (Figure 1). We can see why Arrhenius’ contemporaries were worried about global cooling. If the trend between 1880 and 1910 had continued, by 1980 global temperatures would have plummetted to values not seen since the Little Ice Age (1300–1850), which wreaked havoc on Europe’s growing seasons and caused the river Thames in England to freeze over. Fortunately, a warming trend began. In the last two decades this trend has flattened out, worrying some that global cooling may be on the horizon once again. 1/1/2020 49

The End of Global Warming?全球变暖的结束？ • “This diagram plots how much each year’s global temperature differs from the average between 1901 and 2000 (called the “anomaly”). Global temperatures have trended upward over the past couple centuries, with brief cooling during the years 1880–1910 and 1945–1965. Temperatures appear to plateau again in 1998. • “Although Arrhenius’ theory seems to explain the warming trend for most of the twentieth century, why have the temperatures plateaued if CO2 levels continue to go up? The following is a short summary of proposed answers. 1/1/2020 50

Human Traits: Not So Simple After All

Human Traits: Not So Simple After All

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JSC Result 2018

JSC Result 2018

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