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Simulations of the Piedmont test case: 20060817

Simulations of the Piedmont test case: 20060817. PP QPF WP 3.2 M. Milelli*, E. Oberto*, A. Parodi** *ARPA Piemonte, Torino **CIMA, Savona. 18 August 2006, 00 UTC: Bracknell analysis. 17 August 2006, 18 UTC: trispettral infrared MSG image.

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Simulations of the Piedmont test case: 20060817

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  1. Simulations of the Piedmont test case: 20060817 PP QPF WP 3.2 M. Milelli*, E. Oberto*, A. Parodi** *ARPA Piemonte, Torino **CIMA, Savona 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  2. 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  3. 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens 18 August 2006, 00 UTC: Bracknell analysis

  4. 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  5. 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  6. 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  7. 17 August 2006, 18 UTC: trispettral infrared MSG image 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  8. 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens Rain cumulated between 17 August 17:50 UTC and 18 August 05:50 UTC

  9. Toce Sesia Ticino +06/+30 interval 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  10. Exp0: CTRL Operational +06/+30 interval Obs. 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  11. New experiments list: • A1: ctrl (modified microphysics) • A2: ctrl + RK + QV090 • A3: ctrl + CONkfb (Kain-Fritsch/Bechtold) • A4: A2 + CONkfb (Kain-Fritsch/Bechtold) • A5: ctrl + CONmod (modified Tiedtke) • A6: A2 + CONmod (modified Tiedtke) • A7: ctrl + RK + QV110 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  12. [f(ax)-f(a1)]/f(a1) for x from 2 to 7, for each prec. component A3 and A4 are not in agreement !!! 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  13. More spread in prec. but the peaks are smoothed, particularly over the mountains ! 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  14. Conclusions • The model is sensitive to the initial humidity content (A2-A7) • The modified Tiedtke scheme (A5-A6) decreases sensibly the amount of precipitation • The new Kain-Fritsch/Bechtold scheme (A3-A4) shows a dependence on the considered validation domain and, in particular: • There is a general increase of precipitation over the whole domain but with smoothed values • The smoothing is more evident in areas of complex orography • As a result we have a sharp reduction of precipitation over Piemonte region 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  15. 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  16. 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  17. 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  18. 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  19. 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  20. 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

  21. Conclusions • Some conclusions can be drawn based on the results obtained for the Piedmont case study: • QPF of COSMO-Model at 7 km shows a certain insensitivity with respect to change in its physical and numerical formulation; • On average, the experimental runs are unable to capture the correct time evolution of the event (not shown here); • The main responsible for the COSMO-Model deficiencies in the QPF seems to be impossibility of a proper modelling at 7 km of deep moist convective processes in complex orography areas. We were probably asking too much to the model… 9th COSMO General Meeting, 18-21September 2007, Athens

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