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State Role in Welfare in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Bangladesh. Mozammel Huq Department of Economics University of Strathclyde, Glasgow 30 May, 2014. Structure of the paper. Introduction Main objective of the study State role in Welfare: Theoretical P erspectives
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State Role in Welfare in Developing Countries:A Case Study of Bangladesh MozammelHuq Department of Economics University of Strathclyde, Glasgow 30 May, 2014.
Structure of the paper • Introduction • Main objective of the study • State role in Welfare: Theoretical Perspectives • Poverty in Bangladesh • SSN Programmes • Moving beyond the Basic SSN Programmes • The Way Forward • Concluding Remarks
Introduction • State Role in Welfare: a fascinating proposition? • A genuine question: Why the state should play a role at all and, if so, to what extent • A genuine outcome of democratic development
Main Objective • To view the state role in welfare as it has been emerging in developing countries, using Bangladesh as a case study. • And, in the process, analyse the aspiration of moving from the initial goal of poverty removal to some comprehensive welfare measures. • Thus, we are trying to widen the focusin terms of a comprehensive welfare approach as a long-term vision.
Theoretical Perspectives (only some key points) • As with the efficient allocation of resources, the economists have remained concerned with the distribution of income. • Society's view of just distribution may conflict with the existing distribution. In particular, there is concern with the injustice in the original distribution of endowments. • Also factor market imperfections, especially monopoly pricing of the factors of production, can be an important cause of income inequality.
Theoretical Perspectives (cont’d) • Private redistributions made voluntarily, say through charities, are riddled with problems, a major concern is that the task may be too big for the private redistribution to execute. • Musgrave (1959), among others, would like to justify state intervention to maximise social welfare. • Moreover, various charities may compete with each other as a coordinating role will be missing. Indeed, the state can perform a redistribution policy in a coordinated and comprehensive way. (See, e.g. Brown & Jackson 1990.) • However, Hayek (1960)and other libertarians are rather concerned that state intervention in income distribution will cause curtailment of personal freedom and, in the process, hamper growth. • Hence the emphasis on voluntary contributions made by individuals personally and/or help channelled through NGOs.
Poverty in Bangladesh • The early years: Very high levels of poverty • A major challenge to the economy: Is it going to remain a “bottomless basket”? • Indeed, “a test case of development”.
Fig 1: Bangladesh - Dramatic Fall in Poverty Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Household Income and Expenditure Survey (various years).
SSN Programmes in Bangladesh • In Bangladesh, the SSN programmes got a serious start in the early 1990s with the democratic government taking over in 1991. • There now exists an extensive range of SSN programmes, as many as 90 or so (World Bank 2006; Khuda 2012; GOB 2011 Part 2). • “The bulk of the programmes are implemented through government channels. However, non-government channels play an important supportive role particularly in those programmes focused on sustainable graduation. 97% of annual allocations are spent through 30 major programmes.” (Rahman and Chowdhury, 2012, p. 3). • The programmes are mainly rural based, those with “an urban focus as yet remain minuscule , as only 0.7% of the total allocation” (ibid, p. 3).
Table 1: Major Types of SSN Programmes TYPEPROGRAM EXAMPLES • Cash Transfers • Old Age Allowance • Widowed and Distressed Women Allowance • Disabled Allowance • Conditional Cash Transfers • Primary Education Stipend Program (PESP) • Stipends for Female Secondary Education • Public Works or Training-based or in-kind Transfer • Rural Maintenance Program, Food for Work • Vulnerable Group Development (VGD) • Employment Generation Program (EGP) • Emergency or Seasonal Relief • Vulnerable Group Feeding • Gratuitous Relief (GR); Test Relief (TR) • Open Market Sale (OMS) Source: GOB (2011), 6th Five Year Plan, Part 1, o.166.
Major SSN Programmes: Govt Expenditure Allocations • Govt expenditures (as % of GDP) on SSNs from 1999-00 to 2011-12 are shown in the next slide (Fig 2). • Except the Food for Work programme (in which financial allocation by the Government of Bangladesh decreased from Taka 8,060 million in 1999-00 to Taka 6,224 million in 2011-12), all the other major SSN programmes have witnessed an increase in allocations . • Such increases are particularly marked in Honorarium for Freedom Fighters, Primary Education Stipend Project, Old Age Allowance, and the Allowance for Destitute Widows.
Fig 2: Government Expenditures on SSNs: 1996-7 to 2010-11 (as % of GDP)
Review and Assessments • The emergence and the growth of the SSN programmes in Bangladesh have attracted attention from a large number of researchers. • Various international organisations including the World Bank, UNDP and FAO have also shown a keen interest in it. • Findings from selected studies (brief summary, next slides).
Impact of SSNs on Poverty Decline,Findings by Inchausteet al (2012) • Negligible role of public transfers in poverty reduction in Bangladesh; “leakages and small size of individual transfers made their impact on poverty negligible, despite an expansion of transfer programs during the last decade”. (Inchauste et al, 2012, p19). • In contrast, labour-market related factors contributed to 61% of poverty decline in Bangladesh, “pointing to an increase in real wages and higher productivity as the main contributors to poverty reduction.” (p. 4) • International remittances, and also decline in population growth and fall in the dependency ratios also contributed significantly to poverty reduction in Bangladesh.
Key Issues & Concerns • Although the SSN-support has been of particular help to some needy groups and areas, e.g. poor elderly, destitute women and the poverty-stricken parts, the programme is still low in coverage and size. Also, day labourers and beggars, among others, are also found to be left out. • As strongly argued by the World Bank (2006), Bangladesh seems to spend somewhat below the norm (less than 2% of GDP) – as compared to 2% for Africa and close to 5% for South Asia. (The serious resource constraint faced by the Govt in Bangladesh is, understandably, a major hindrance.) • There are also a number of other concerns (see below).
Key Issues & Concerns (cont’d) • A major concern relates to the deficiency in administration of the SSN programmes. Some 30 or so Government Ministries are reported to be involved, and without any inter-Ministerial collaboration. • Also, at times various Government and non-Government agencies are found to be working without any coordination. • “Leakages” are frequently reported, and in some programmes as high as 26% (GOB, 6th Five Year Plan, Part 1, p.168). • Hence the need for improving the administrative capacity and, in particular, involving central co-ordination, thus institution building demanding a serious attention (World Bank, 2010).
Moving Beyond the Basic SSNs:Case of a Long-term Vision • Many developing countries are still struggling to remove extreme poverty. • Also, there are strong oppositions to create welfare provisions. • Ideological pressures following globalization. • However, with the march of democracy, the West European model is likely to remain a cherishing dream.
The Way Forward • Realistically, any hope of comprehensive welfare measures is likely to remain a long term vision. • Two key components: • Need to grow steadily government expenditures on welfare provisions as a percentage of GDP and • Need to keep improving the administration of such welfare measures.
Concluding Remarks • Need to maintain a strong competitive market economy, thus helping to keep improving the resource allocation, while also the state remaining active in income distribution with carefully selected (and also well administered) welfare measures. • The short-term goal is likely to remain the eradication of poverty. • Any success in providing comprehensive welfare measures will be dependent on how the capacity pf the state has improved, involving two main areas: (a) social welfare allocations as a percentage of GDP and (b) an organisational set up to administer the programme efficiently.