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Quantifying the productivity counterpart of outsourcing in the Italian manufacturing industries. F. Daveri - M. Iommi - C. Jona-Lasinio OECD Productivity Workshop Bern, 16-18 October, 2006. Motivation. Growing importance of international “outsourcing” of services in Western economies.
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Quantifying the productivity counterpart of outsourcing in the Italian manufacturing industries F. Daveri - M. Iommi - C. Jona-Lasinio OECD Productivity Workshop Bern, 16-18 October, 2006
Motivation • Growing importance of international “outsourcing” of services in Western economies. • Evidence that both offshoring of services and of material inputs are associated with productivity gains • Amiti and Wei, 2006; Girma and Gorg, 2004; Criscuolo and Leaver, 2005. • Outsourcing as such, irrespective of where to, should be associated to productivity growth • Italy was largely missing from previous research on this topic. • Availability of new symmetric I-O tables.
Our aims • Quantify the extent of domestic and international outsourcing in the Italian manufacturing sector. • Provide a comparison between direct and indirect measures of outsourcing. • Evaluate the productivity counterpart of outsourcing.
Data • Symmetric input-output tables (industry by industry matrix) • At the 60-sector level (according to the NACE Rev1.1 classification) • Time period: 1995-2003 • Focus on domestic and international outsourcing of manufacturing intermediates and services for 14 manufacturing industries • Our – broad - definition of “market service providers”: • transports, storage and communications • finance and insurance • real estate and other business services
LP in manufacturing: abrupt but scattered slowdown (ND first, then D)
Measures of international and domestic outsourcing • OSMiD= Sj [DOMESTIC INPUT PURCHASES OF MATERIAL j by IND. i / TOTAL NON-ENERGY INPUTS USED BY INDUSTRY i] • OSSiD= Sj [DOMESTIC PURCHASES OF SERVICE INPUT j by INDST. i / TOTAL NON-ENERGY INPUTS USED BY INDUSTRY i] • OSMiF= Sj [IMPORT OF MATERIAL j by INDST. i / TOTAL NON-ENERGY INPUTS USED BY INDUSTRY i] • OSSiF= Sj [IMPORT OF SERVICE INPUT j by INDST. i / TOTAL NON-ENERGY INPUTS USED BY INDUSTRY i]
Domestic outsourcing of intermediates (OSMD): down in 1995-03
Int’n’l outsourcing of services (OSSF): mildly up in 1995-03
DIJ vs FH measures • FH measure imputes average propensity to import for the economy to each industry – unwarranted assumption justifed by data limitations • We have the right data to directly compute offshoring • FH and DIJ measures are highly correlated: • Across industries r is 0.8 on average 1995-03 (but falls to .6 in 1999-03) • FH shares systematically lower than DIJ shares • Feenstra-Hanson measures systematically “optimistic” in evaluating extent of offshoring • Use of indirect outsourcing measures may bias estimates
Empirical specification • where: • GROWTHLPit is the growth rate of value added per full-time equivalent employed worker in industry i (with i=1,..14) at time t (with t=1995,..,2003); • GROWTHKLitis the growth rate of the industry capital labor ratios; • OSS is the outsourcing of services; • OSM is the outsourcing of intermediates • “d” and “f” mean “domestic” and “foreign”
Conclusions and future research • Not all manufacturing industries outsource production to the same extent either inside or outside the country; • Off-shore outsourcing took off in 1999-2003, not before; • Only the international outsourcing of intermediates is positively related to productivity growth, while the other forms of outsourcing are not robustly related to productivity growth
Conclusions and future research • Direct and indirect measures of outsourcing provide different empirical results • The results obtained from our indicator of outsourcing are quite different from those arising from the commonly used Feenstra-Hanson measures of outsourcing
Conclusions and future research • Disaggregate market services further • Potential to do so: I-O Table available with up to 101 industries • Improve econometric techniques to more satisfactorily deal with endogeneity issues
SYMMETRIC I-O TABLES Imported intermediates Total intermediates Domestic intermediates
SYMMETRIC I-O TABLES costi di produzione interna sostenuti dalla branca agricoltura per acquistare prodotti agricoli necessari per la sua produzione di prodotti agricoli, prodotti industriali e servizi costi di produzione interna sostenuti dalla branca agricoltura per acquistare prodotti industriali necessari per la sua produzione di prodotti agricoli, prodotti industriali e servizi Domestic use
SYMMETRIC I-O TABLES Imported use I.P.I. I.I.C. Supply