It’s all Political: Why Demography isn’t just for Demographers Anymore Jack A. Goldstone

1. It’s all Political: Why Demography isn’t just for Demographers Anymore Jack A. Goldstone Political Demography: Ethnic, National and Religious Dimensions29-30 September , 2006London School of Economics

2. I. How to think about population change and conflict: (1)  Most conflict over resources caused by population growth leads to only local and small-scale violence. Large-scale violence is almost never caused mainly by population growth. (2)  Conflict over resources caused by population growth is a challenge, not simply a threat, and has often been resolved in ways leading to greater cooperation, not conflict. For example, there have been hardly any confirmed examples of ‘water wars’ over river basins, but there are many examples of international and cross-regional cooperative agreements on how to manage scarce water resources in the face of growing demand. (3)  Conflicts over resources caused by population growth only lead to large-scale violence when such conflicts interact with weak state capacity or inflexible state policies that tend to exacerbate these conflicts, channel them into political lines, and produce cross-regional, cross-class, or cross-ethnic coalitions against state authorities. The basic conclusion: the relationship between population change and political conflict is always mediated by state capacity and state responses.

3.  SIX GLOBAL POPULATION TRENDS • The bigger they are ... • Big Emerging Markets and the World Economy • Bye bye love … • The great slowdown in population growth in high-income countries • Here we come… • Third to First World Migration, problem or solution? • 4. Will you still love me when I’m 64? …. Aging populations, health, work, and • retirement • Oops, I did it again… • AIDS, SARS, Bird Flu, and the next bad thing • How you gonna keep them down on the farm?… • Hyper-urbanization in the Third World

4. 2005 China1,315,844,000 India 1,103,371,000 USA298,213,000 Indonesia 222,781,000 Brazil 186,405,000 Pakistan 157,935,000 Russia143,202,000 Bang’desh 141,822,000 Nigeria 131,530,000 Japan128,085,000 Mexico107,029,000 Viet Nam84,238,000 Philippines 83,054,000 Germany 82,689,000 Ethiopia77,431,000 Egypt 74,033,000 Turkey 73,193,000 Iran 69,515,000 Thailand64,233,000 France60,496,000 UK 59,668,000 Italy 58,093,000 Congo, DR 57,549,000 South Korea 47,817,000 South Africa 47,432,000 2025 China1,441,426,000 India1,395,496,000 USA350,103,000 Indonesia263,746,000 Pakistan 229,353,000 Brazil227,930,000 Bang’desh 193,752,000 Nigeria190,287,000 Mexico129,381,000 Russia129,230,000 Japan124,819,000 Ethiopia118,354,000 Philippines 109,084,000 Viet Nam104,343,000 Congo, DR103,224,000 Egypt 101,092,000 Iran 89,042,000 Turkey 90,565,000 Germany 81,967,000 Thailand 72,635,000 UK 63,601,000 France 63,407,000 Uganda 60,601,000 Myanmar 59,002,000 Columbia 57,738,000 Table 1. Largest Countries

5. Table 2: Fastest Growing Countries 2000-2005 (Pop. Over 1 million) United Arab Emirates 6.5 Afghanistan 4.6 Eritrea 4.3 Sierra Leone 4.1 Kuwait 3.7 Chad 3.4 Niger 3.4 Uganda 3.4 Benin 3.2 Burkina Faso 3.2 Palestine (occupied) 3.2 Somalia 3.2 Yemen 3.1 Burundi 3.0 Congo 3.0 Mali 3.0 Mauritania 3.0 Guinea-Bissau 3.0 Congo (Dem. Rep.) 2.8 Gambia 2.8 Iraq 2.8 Madagascar 2.8 Angola 2.8 Togo 2.7 Jordan 2.7 Saudi Arabia 2.7 Syria 2.5 Ethiopia 2.4 Guatemala 2.4 Paraguay 2.4 Rwanda 2.4 Senegal 2.4 Honduras 2.3 Laos 2.3 Equatorial Guinea 2.3 Nigeria 2.2 Guinea 2.2 Kenya 2.2 Malawi 2.2 Ghana 2.1 Nepal 2.1 Papua New Guinea 2.1 Annual Growth Rate, %

6. Map 1: Global Population Growth Rates, expected 2005-2010 Source: UN Environmental Programme, Geo Data Portal, http://geodata.grid.unep.ch/page.p

7. Table 3:

8. Country 15-59 60+ 15-59 60+ Italy 61.7 24.1 46.2 42.3 Greece 61.5 23.4 46.2 40.7 Germany 61.2 23.2 49.5 38.1 Japan 62.1 23.2 45.2 42.3 Sweden 59.4 22.4 48.3 37.7 Belgium 60.6 22.1 50.3 35.5 Spain 63.5 21.8 44.5 44.1 Bulgaria 62.6 21.7 47.6 38.6 Switzerland 62.1 21.3 48.6 38.9 Latvia 61.7 20.9 47.5 37.5 Portugal 62.5 20.8 49.9 35.7 Austria 62.6 20.7 47.4 41.0 United Kingdom 60.4 20.6 51.1 34.0 Ukraine 61.6 20.5 49.0 38.1 France 60.7 20.5 51.3 32.7 Estonia 62.1 20.2 48.5 35.9 Croatia 61.8 20.2 53.0 30.8 Denmark 61.8 20.0 53.0 31.8 Finland 62.0 19.9 50.6 34.4 Hungary 63.3 19.7 49.4 36.2 Norway 60.7 19.6 51.7 32.3 Luxembourg 62.0 19.4 57.1 25.2 Slovenia 65.0 19.2 45.1 42.4 Belarus 62.4 18.9 49.6 35.8 Romania 62.9 18.8 50.0 34.2 Table 5: Oldest Countries in 2000 in 2050

9. Country age groups 2000 in % 0-14 15-59 60+ Yemen 50.1 46.3 3.6 Niger 49.9 46.9 3.3 Uganda 49.2 47.0 3.8 Dem. Rep. of the Congo 48.8 46.7 4.5 Burkina Faso 48.7 46.5 4.8 Angola 48.2 47.3 4.5 Somalia 48.0 48.1 3.9 Burundi 47.6 48.1 4.3 Zambia 46.5 48.9 4.5 Chad 46.5 48.6 4.9 Palestinian Terr. 46.4 48.7 4.9 Benin 46.4 49.4 4.2 Malawi 46.3 49.0 4.6 Congo 46.3 48.7 5.1 Mali 46.1 48.1 5.7 Zimbabwe 45.2 50.1 4.7 Ethiopia 45.2 50.1 4.7 Nigeria 45.1 50.2 4.8 Tanzania 45.0 51.0 4.0 Solomon Islands 44.8 51.0 4.2 Madagascar 44.7 50.5 4.7 Senegal 44.3 51.5 4.2 Rwanda 44.3 51.5 4.2 Togo 44.3 50.9 4.9 Sierra Leone 44.2 51.0 4.8 Table 4: Youngest Countries

10. Table 6: Urban Agglomerations, 2015

11. Table 7:

12. Sources for Tables Tables 1 and 2: UN Population Division: World Population Prospects, 2004 Revision http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WPP2004/2004Highlights_finalrevised.pdf Table 3: US Bureau of the Census, International Data Base. http://www.geohive.com/global/geo.php?xml=idb&xsl=idb&par1=eu Tables 4 and 5: UN Population Division.note: projection for 2045-2050 based on medium-variant for global population growth estimates by the UN. http://www.geohive.com/charts/pop_age.php Tables 6 and Table 7:UN Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, 2003 Revision http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2003/WUP2003Report.pdf