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Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for Metropolitan Prosperity

Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for Metropolitan Prosperity. Roadmap. Why the Young & Restless Matter Quantitative Analysis Qualitative Analysis. Participating Cities. Memphis, TN Philadelphia, PA Portland, OR Providence, RI Portland, VA Tampa, FL. Research Agenda.

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Talented Young Workers and the Prospects for Metropolitan Prosperity

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  1. Talented Young Workersand the Prospects forMetropolitan Prosperity

  2. Roadmap • Why the Young & Restless Matter • Quantitative Analysis • Qualitative Analysis

  3. Participating Cities • Memphis, TN • Philadelphia, PA • Portland, OR • Providence, RI • Portland, VA • Tampa, FL

  4. Research Agenda • Detailed Quantitative Analysis • Demographics, migration, and location of 25-34 year-olds in 1990 and 2000 • Focus on Top 50 US Metro Areas • (All with populations >1 million) • In-Depth Qualitative Analysis • Focus groups with young workers in participating cities • Recent movers, college plus education

  5. National Context Why the Young and Restless Matter to Metropolitan Prosperity

  6. Fewer 25 to 34 year-olds • U.S. 25 to 34 Year Old Population • 1990: 43.5 Million • 2000: 39.6 Million • Today • 3.9 Million Fewer • a 9% Decline

  7. A Critical Demographic As a group, 25 to 34 year-olds are: • Well-Educated • Highly Mobile • Hard-Working • Adaptable • Cheap (Relative to Older Workers) = H.R.’s Dream Demographic

  8. Big Shifts Among Metros % Change 25-34 year-olds, 1990 to 2000 50 Most Populous Metro Areas Average of Top 50 Metros

  9. Last 30 Years Boomers enter prime work years Women’s labor market participation nearly doubles Educational attainment up sharply = Labor Surplus Next 30 Years Boomers retire; many early Women’s labor market participation plateaus Educational attainmentplateaus = Labor Shortage Future Outlook: Labor Shortage

  10. Competing in a Knowledge Economy • Talent is the critical resource • “The Creative Class” matters • Skilled, creative workers • Attractive, tolerant places • Innovative, successful economies • The Young and Restless are the “creative class” that is up for grabs

  11. Creative Class Correlates to Young Talent

  12. Youth and Tolerance Also Correlated

  13. Quantitative Analysis • National Context: Why this matters • Overall Trends • Changing Faces • Talent • Moving In, Moving On • Local Patterns

  14. Benchmark Cities Have More 25-34s Rank Metropolitan Area Percent 25-34 1 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 18.2% 6 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 16.4% 10 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 15.7% 13 San Diego, CA MSA 15.5% 15 Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA 15.4% 18 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 15.2%

  15. Changing Faces Racial and Ethnic Trends Reshapingthe Look of the Young and Restless

  16. Young Adult Population More Diverse Percent of Population, 1990 and 2000

  17. Growth Rates Varied by Demography Percent Change, 1990 to 2000

  18. Fastest growing segment of the young and restless since 1990 Hispanic 25-34: Up 2.3 million (+57%) Non-Hispanic 25-34: Down 5.3 million (-17%) San Antonio 25-34 year-olds are majority Hispanic; Los Angeles (48%), Miami (46%) Low College Attainment an issue (11% vs. 31.9% for all 25-34s) Hispanics

  19. Declining slightly, less than whites Generally becoming more dispersed Magnet Cities for African Americans, Atlanta, Orlando, Charlotte, Minneapolis Atlanta 36% increase in 25-34 year-old African Americans 24% college attainment (vs 18% nationally) African-Americans

  20. Smart Women College Attainment Rate of 25 to 34 Year Olds, 2000 Gender 1990 2000Change Men26.9%30.3% +3.4% Women 26.3% 33.6% +7.3% Change in College-educated 25 to 34 Year Olds, 1990-2000 Gender NumberPercent Men + 150,000 +4.2% Women + 624,000 +18.0%

  21. Portland’s Population Less Diverse 25 to 34 Year-olds Rank Metropolitan Area Percent White 12 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 79.7% 17 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 77.7% 19 Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA 75.9% 25 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 71.7% 32 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 69.1% 41 San Diego, CA MSA 61.6%

  22. Average in College Attainment 25-34 year-olds with a 4-Year Degree, 2000 Rank Metropolitan Area 4 Year Degree 6 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 38.9% 7 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 38.1% 14 Seattle--Tacoma--Bremerton, WA CMSA 34.2% 27 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 29.0% 30 San Diego, CA MSA 28.7% 44 Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 24.6%

  23. Biggest Shifts in Talented 25-34s Change in College Educated 25-34s Rank Metropolitan Area Change, 1990-2000 2 Charlotte, NC MSA 56.6% 3 Austin--San Marcos, TX MSA 56.2% 4 Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 50.0% 5 Atlanta, GA MSA 46.2% 6 Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 40.1% 42 St. Louis, MO, MSA -0.7% 45 New Orleans, LA MSA -4.3% 49 Providence, RI MSA -7.0%

  24. Moving In, Moving On Migration of the Young and RestlessAmong US Metropolitan Areas

  25. Between 1995 and 2000, 6.6 million 25 to 34 year-olds moved from one metropolitan area to another Migration rates vary by a factor of four Well-educated are the most likely to move, especially long distances Millions Move

  26. Local Patterns Where do the 25 to 34 year-olds Live in Portland?

  27. 25 to 34 Year-olds Increasing Increase in 25 to 34 Year-olds, 1990-2000

  28. College-educated young adults Concentration of College-educated 25-34 year-olds

  29. African-American 25-34 year-olds Concentration of African-American 25-34 year-olds

  30. Close-in Neighborhods Key Concentration of College-educated 25-34 year-olds 3 miles from CBD Growth of 25 to 34 year-olds 1990 to 2000 +30 Percent Share of25 to 34 year-olds with a 4-year degree 54 Percent

  31. Central or Suburban Growth? Change in 25-34 year-olds Population 1990-2000 Metropolitan Area Within 3 Miles Outside 3 Miles Seattle--Tacoma, WA CMSA +32% - 6% Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA +30% +10% Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA +24% +14% San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CMSA +17% - 6% Raleigh--Durham--Chapel Hill, NC MSA - 2% +23% Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA -5% +25% Charlotte, NC--SC MSA -12% +19%

  32. Smart in the Center or Burbs? 25-34 year-olds with a 4-Year Degree, 2000 Metropolitan Area Within 3 Miles Outside 3 Miles Seattle--Tacoma, WA CMSA 56% 32% Portland--Salem, OR--WA CMSA 54% 26% Denver--Boulder--Greeley, CO CMSA 46% 37% San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CMSA 67% 38% Raleigh--Durham--Chapel Hill, NC MSA 40% 46% Phoenix--Mesa, AZ MSA 12% 25% Charlotte, NC--SC MSA 35% 32%

  33. From Here . . . The Economic Importance of Being Different

  34. Qualitative Analysis • What the young and restless want from cities • City-specific assets and challenges • A toolkit for cities • Insights and opportunities

  35. What the Young and the Restless Want from Cities Open the Circle and Welcome Newcomers Welcome New Ideas Encourage Diversity Create a Place Where People Can Be Themselves Let Young People Live Their Values and Create a New History

  36. What the Young and the Restless Want from Cities Build Vibrant Places Take Care of the Basics Be the Best at Something Sell Your Regional Assets Know What You Want to Be and Be Willing to Take Risks to Achieve It

  37. A Toolkit for Cities Deliver an appealing reality. Put values on display. Keep in touch with former residents. Create opportunities for civic involvement. Use internships to connect with young adults.

  38. More Tools . . . Survey young adults regularly. Celebrate young entrepreneurs and civic contributors. Communicate development plans to young adults. Promote your city. Promote a young adult lifestyle.

  39. Three other studies address migration Bill Frey: “Metropolitan Magnets” Paul Gottlieb: “Brain Drain” Census Bureau: Differences from Other Studies

  40. “Metropolitan Magnets for International and Domestic Migrants” (Oct. 2003) International and domestic migration among 81 Largest Metros based on Census, 1995-2000 migration data KEY WEAKNESS: No age group data “Domestic migrant magnets all characterized by lower-density” (p. 9) Frey: Metro Magnets

  41. Labor Supply Pressures and the "Brain Drain”, (January 2004) “Northeast & Midwest have highest proportion of young & educated; counters notion of a brain drain.” WEAKNESS: Doesn’t measure change in educational attainment of 25-34s from 1990 to 2000 Year 2000 snapshot on attainment; change measures have life cycle bias--compares location of 15 to 24 year olds in 1990 to 25 to 34 year olds in 2000; doesn’t separate out effects of international migrations Gottlieb: Brain Drain

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