Go, go, go said the bird: human kind Cannot bear very much reality

2. Go, go, go said the bird: human kind Cannot bear very much reality T.S. Eliot (in Burnt Norten, Four Quartets) ... the problem is “not seeing what we don’t want to see” (“willful blindness”) John Casti, X-Events, 2012

3. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Communicating the Science about a Global Challenge The Syndrome: Climate Change and Sea Level Rise The Prognosis: Expected Future Changes - A unparalleled Challenge for Humanity The Diagnosis: The Anthropocene and Global Change The Therapy: Lifestyle Change Hans-Peter Plag Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA hpplag@odu.edu

4. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations IPCC, 2013 Syndrome

5. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Temperature, 1900-2012, 5 Year averages of anomly compared to 1900-1905 Syndrome

6. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Syndrome

7. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Syndrome

8. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Greenland Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Measurement Principle Syndrome

9. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Syndrome

10. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations • Marcott et al., 2013 Syndrome

11. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations “Normal” variability: - global temperature: 0.2 C/century (-0.5 to 0.5) - global sea level: 1.5 m/century (-6.0 to 6.0) o 20th century: - global temperature: 0.7 C - global sea level: 0.2 m o Syndrome

12. Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations Climate change is happening: - now, for certain - everywhere, globally - rapidly - expected to get worse Sea level change is happening: - now, certain - everywhere, globally - rapidly - expected to get worse Syndrome

13. Expected Future Changes Prognosis

14. } Expected Future Changes 4 3 IPCC Assessment: Very Likely 2 o 1 C • Marcott et al., 2013

15. Expected Future Changes Prognosis

16. Expected Future Changes Example Hampton Roads Today’s rate: 5 mm per year (about 1.5 feet in 100 years) Soon could get as high as: 20 mm per year (about 6 feet in 100 years) Modified from Church et al. (2010) Prognosis

17. An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity? 19.20.21.org: 19 cities in the world with 20 million people in the 21st century “..., almost all of the cities to be studied in 19.20.21 are cities that border the oceans of the world, and will be affected by the rise in sea levels Prognosis

18. An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity? Lovelock (and many others): - Planet is on a run-away path; could reach a warm state (5 C warmer) already in 2050 Australia China USA Germany Lovelock: - Carrying capacity of the planet would be reduced to 1 Billion - Recommendation: look for the lifeboats Prognosis

19. An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity? Are we on Titanic after it hit the iceberg? Captain E.J. Smith: “I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that.” There were lifeboats for about half of the passengers, but only 1/3 made it into them - I hope, we can do better. Prognosis

20. An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity? 11.1% Genghis Khan Prognosis

21. The Anthropocene and Global Change Population GDP CO2 CH4 1750 2000 Floods Temperature We are Reengineering the Planet ... Bill McKibben: Earth becomes Eaarth ... Cars Deforestation Extinction Diagnosis

22. The Anthropocene and Global Change We are Reengineering the Planet ... Diagnosis

23. The Anthropocene and Global Change “Has human activity over the past two centuries pushed the Earth out of the Holocene and into the Anthropocene?” James Syvitski, 2012. The Anthropocene: A transition to a new epoch? - a slowly hitting asteroid - a planetary accident - an extinction-class event Plag, 2013 We have moved from to back seats of the bus into the driver seat ... Diagnosis

24. The Anthropocene and Global Change Earth is on the Edge ? “Safe operating space for humanity” Rockstroem et al., 2009 Humanity as a global species is on the edge We don’t know where the edges are, but we keep running faster and faster ... (On The Edge @ RunningInFog) Diagnosis

25. The Anthropocene and Global Change The planet is on a path unknown to humanity ... Small Steps no longer make much sense ... We need a fundamental change of how we are in the world ... Diagnosis

26. Responding to the Challenge What Could be this Fundamental Change? Millennium Development Goals (2005-2015): Mostly not reached Sustainable Development Goals (2015-2025): Proposed, look very good ... SDGs: 1 Thriving lives and livelihoods 2 Sustainable food security 3 Secure sustainable water 4 Universal clean energy 5 Healthy and productive ecosystems 6 Governance for sustainable societies Griggs et al., 2013 Therapy

27. Responding to the Challenge Sustainable Development: Brundtland et al., 1987: “Development that meets the needs of the presence without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs” Griggs et al., 2013: “Development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generation depends” Griggs et al., 2013 Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life support system Plag et al., 2013 Therapy

28. Responding to the Challenge Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life-support system An economy that meets our needs by burning fossil fuels and destroying Earth’s life-support system is like a doctor who practices medicine by killing the patients. Economy for humanity: “An economy that meets our needs while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.” Plag et al., 2013 Therapy

29. “No problem can be solved with the same consciousness that created it.” Albert Einstein “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it” Upton Sinclair