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Heavy precipitation

Heavy precipitation. Poland under water, July 1997. Convective closure shemes. Domain size & resolution. Soil moisture. Boundary conditions. Group 13. M. Liszewska (Poland). T. Spektorman (Uzbekistan). E. Vanvyve (Belgium). The flood of July 1997 in Poland. Wroclaw. 1 st flood peak.

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Heavy precipitation

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  1. Heavy precipitation Poland under water, July 1997 Convective closure shemes Domain size & resolution Soil moisture Boundary conditions Group 13 M. Liszewska (Poland) T. Spektorman (Uzbekistan) E. Vanvyve (Belgium)

  2. The flood of July 1997 in Poland Wroclaw 1st flood peak 2nd flood peak

  3. Small domain40/60 km Arakawa & Schubert NCEP Large domain60 km Fritsch & Chappell ECMWF What did we do ? Boundary conditions RegCM

  4. Plan • Results • Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary conditions • Sensitivity to soil moisture • Sensitivity to domain size and resolution • Conclusion

  5. CC shemes & BCs - Psurface (monthly mean) Arakawa-Schubert Fritsch-Chappell NCEP  ECMWF 

  6. CC shemes & BCs – T2m (monthly mean) Arakawa-Schubert Fritsch-Chappell CRU NCEP  ECMWF 

  7. CC shemes & BCs - precipitation (monthly rate) Arakawa-Schubert Fritsch-Chappell CRU NCEP  ECMWF 

  8. CC shemes & BCs - Precipitation (6h) Average on the flood area Arakawa-Schubert Fritsch-Chappell NCEP  ECMWF 

  9. Plan • Results • Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary conditions • Sensitivity to soil moisture • Sensitivity to domain size and resolution • Conclusion

  10. Sensitivity to soil moisture How the soil moisture can influence the precipitation ? Initial soil moisture in andaround the flood areaset to 100%. • Precipitation for the 2 flood peaks

  11. Sensitivity to the soil moisture NCEPFritsch & Chappell 1st flood peak(4-7th July) 2nd flood peak(18-20th July) “normal”soilmoisture  1st flood peak “modified”soilmoisture  2nd flood peak

  12. Plan • Results • Sensitivity to convective closure schemes and boundary conditions • Sensitivity to soil moisture • Sensitivity to the domain size and the resolution • Conclusion

  13. Sensitivity to domain size and resolution Average on the 3 days of the 2nd flood peak NCEPArakawa & Schubert “small” domain – 60 km “small” domain – 40 km “large” domain – 60 km totalprecipitation  convectiveprecipitation

  14. Plan • Simulations setup • Results • Sensitivity to • convective closure schemes • boundary conditions Does the soil moisture matter for the peak flood ? • Sensitivity to the domain size and the resolution • Conclusion

  15. Preliminary conclusion • Sensitivity to forcing fields • no difference for monthly mean T2m and Psurface • NCEP seems dryer than ECMWF • Sensitivity to convective closure schemes • no difference for monthly mean T2m and Psurface • regional precipitation pattern captured • flood peaks more or less corresponding to the real situation • Sensitivity to soil moisture • difficult to say, more investigation needed • Sensitivity to domain size and resolution • more detailed convective precipitation pattern for higher resolution

  16. Last words … Our first conclusion was : “Still a lot of very hard work and white nights …” Thanks for your patience ! That was true !!

  17. Sensitivity to CC schemes and BCs • Domain • “small” domain (40*50*18) • 60 km resolution • Convective closure schemes • Arakawa & Schubert • Fritsch & Chappell • Boundary conditions • NCEP • ECMWF • Monthly/daily pressure, temperature and precipitation

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