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National Air Quality Forecasting Capability: Progress and Plans June 20, 2005 Paula M Davidson

National Air Quality Forecasting Capability: Progress and Plans June 20, 2005 Paula M Davidson NWS Program Manager for Air Quality Forecasting. Outline. Background Current capabilities Progress and plans for expanded capabilities. National Air Quality Forecasting Background.

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National Air Quality Forecasting Capability: Progress and Plans June 20, 2005 Paula M Davidson

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  1. National Air Quality Forecasting Capability: • Progress and Plans • June 20, 2005 • Paula M Davidson • NWS Program Manager for Air Quality Forecasting

  2. Outline • Background • Current capabilities • Progress and plans for expanded capabilities

  3. National Air Quality ForecastingBackground • Congressional Interest • H.R. 4 Energy Policy Act of 2002 (Senate Amendment) • Constituent Interest • State and local air quality forecasters: statement of need • AQ managers, public health officials, private weather sector partners urge NOAA to provide AQ forecasts • NOAA-EPA Agreements • DOC Deputy Secretary and EPA Administrator signed MOU/MOA for AQ forecasting May 6, 2003 • Science is Mature • Ozone forecast models demonstrated in lab -- others in development • Other nations (Canada, Australia) have existing AQ forecasts; expanding capabilities to include aerosol components

  4. National Air Quality ForecastingCurrent and Planned Capabilities • Current: 1-day forecast guidance for ozone • Developed and deployed initially for Northeastern US, September 2004 • Deploy Nationwide by 2008 • Intermediate (5-7 years): • Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter concentration • Particulate size < 2.5 microns • Longer range (within 10 years): • Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours • Include broader range of significant pollutants

  5. AQI: Peak Aug 22 EPA Monitoring Network National Air Quality Forecast Capability Initial Operational Capability (IOC) • Linked numerical prediction system • Operationally integrated on NCEP’s supercomputer • NCEP mesoscale NWP: Eta-12 • NOAA/EPA community model for AQ: CMAQ • Observational Input: • NWS weather observations • EPA emissions inventory • Gridded forecast guidance products • Delivered to NWS Telecommunications Gateway and EPA for users to pull 2x daily • Verification basis • EPA ground-level • ozone observations • Customer outreach/feedback NCEP mesoscale NWP: Eta-12 State & Local AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA Public and Private Sector AQ constituents

  6. National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityMajor Components: IOC Weather Observations NWP Model NAM/Eta-12 NOAA/NWS NWP Post-processors for AQ Modules EPA’s National Emissions Inventory: EPA/OAQPS AQ Module: Emissions Preprocessor PREMAQ NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD IT /Comms NOAA/NWS and EPA/OAQPS AQ Module: Air Quality Reactive Transport CMAQ NOAA/OAR and EPA/ORD

  7. Sample AQ forecast guidancewww.weather.gov/aq http://www.nws.noaa.gov/aq

  8. Initial Operating Capability: Operational Readiness Criteria Summary C C C C C C C C

  9. Deployment Criteria: Objective Verification (NCEP) • Summary Performance: • June 1- Aug 15, 2004 • - Exceeds target • Reflects clean conditions C

  10. Expanded Domain, Development Testing:Sample Verification, 2004 • Limited test conditions in 2004. Generally good patterns; accuracy lower than NE US (IOC) • With upgrades in place, experimental (pre-deployment) testing began June, 2005

  11. Expanding the IOC: 2005 Improvements

  12. June, 2005: Expanded Forecast Guidance Experimental (EUS) Operational (NE US) weather.gov/aq-exprweather.gov/aq

  13. Developmental Testing: Summer 2005 Developmental: CONUS “5X” Experimental: EUS “3x” 265 grid cells 142 Northeast “1x”Domain IOC “1x” 259 grid cells 166 CONUS “5x” Domain EUS “3X” East “3x” Domain 268 grid cells 442 grid cells

  14. National Air Quality ForecastingStatus: June, 2005. Part 1 Current Operational Capability: • NE US (1x) ground-level ozone; • Hour-by-hour concentrations, 12km grid resolution, thru midnight next-day • Demonstrated test guidance accuracy, Summer 2004: • Greater than required 90%; only 7 days below 95% Current operational capability improves accuracy over developmental test season (2003): • Mean daytime bias reduced from ~17 to 5 ppb (2003 vs 2004) • Mean daytime rmse reduced from 22.8 to 14.5 ppb (2003 vs 2004) • Improvements ongoing: still overpredicting in daytime, poorer performance at night

  15. National Air Quality ForecastingStatus: June, 2005. Part 2 Testing Expanded Capability: • Eastern US, ozone: Experimental (pre-deployment) testing underway • Nationwide deployment, ozone: target now FY08 • Developmental testing over CONUS beginning by end of June: • OCONUS TBD • Major improvements in testing: • Eta-CMAQ linkage: T-profile; land-use. Moving to WRF (developmental) • Emissions updates: Mobile 6; extrapolations to current year emissions • Lateral boundary conditions: GFS ozone • Improvements in PBL, cloud treatment (ongoing), radiation flux • Testing aerosol components needed for particulate matter capabilities: • Planned testing at risk due to constricted supercomputing capacity • Development of nationwide observational plan for PM forecasting urgently needed

  16. Transitioning Research to Operations: Phased Development/Testing/Implementation

  17. Priorities:National AQ Forecast Capability • Nationwide implementation of ozone forecast capability: • Continuing success in phased development/ testing/ implementation • Development of particulate matter (PM) forecasting capability: • Observation plan for nationwide real-time atmospheric chemistry data needed for PM forecasting • Especially: episodic natural sources • As needed, chemical data assimilation prototypes • Goals: Accurate, timely forecasts: effective and efficient prediction methods • Best science-based predictions to meet users’ needs • Optimize accuracy/computing resources: e.g. On-line vs off-line, ensemble • Demonstrated reliability: Operational, real-time verification

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