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Catastrophe Readiness and Response: A New Course Almost Ready for Final Release

Catastrophe Readiness and Response: A New Course Almost Ready for Final Release. Rick Bissell, PhD. Catastrophes. CNN Report: Climate Change “Catastrophic” 1 300,000 excess deaths/year now due to climate change

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Catastrophe Readiness and Response: A New Course Almost Ready for Final Release

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  1. Catastrophe Readiness and Response: A New Course Almost Ready for Final Release Rick Bissell, PhD

  2. Catastrophes CNN Report: Climate Change “Catastrophic”1 300,000 excess deaths/year now due to climate change 300 million vulnerable to climate change in 2009. This number is set to double by 2030.2 1.http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/05/29/annan.climate.change.human/index.html 2. Global Humanitarian Forum: Human Impact Report: Climate Change -- The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis

  3. Assumptions • Catastrophes are fundamentally different from run of the mill disasters • Lack of immediate mutual aid • Affect interlocked systems of communications, power, transport, food delivery, health care, national commerce • Span multiple jurisdictions and levels of government; overwhelming complexity • Response is not just more of the same

  4. Assumptions - 2 • Future EMs will face more catastrophes and more severe ones • Political authorities will depend on EMs for guidance • International assistance (US receiving as well as US providing) will become more common among North Atlantic countries

  5. Assumptions - 3 • All-hazards planning is not up to the task; scenario-specific planning is required to deal with hypercomplex events • Flexibility and unconventional responses will be even more important, and they can be learned and planned

  6. FEMA’s Three Approaches to Preparedness for Catastrophes Scenario-based intensive planning for geographic regions, with traditional “top-down” plans and exercises. Scenario-based intensive planning for geographic regions with “bottom-up” plans and exercises. EMI course on catastrophe readiness and response.

  7. Charge • Develop a new course for upper division undergraduates and graduate students on the tasks necessary for planning, preparedness for and response to catastrophes.

  8. Status Report • All course sessions have now been reviewed by way of public comment and select outside reviewers. • Reviewers’ comments to be compiled for review meeting. • Revisions to be submitted by end of July.

  9. New/Enhance Secondary Catastrophes Mass migration from newly uninhabitable lands becomes a catastrophe in itself. So. Pacific island countries, heavily populated lowland countries (Bangladesh, Netherlands, etc) and cities (NYC?, NOLA? Miami?) Desertification in Asia, Africa, Latin America and North America

  10. Oldies but Goodies, Now More Frequent and Powerful Hurricanes Flooding Drought Heat waves Epidemics/pandemics

  11. Oldies but Goodies, Now More Complex Networked and articulated electrical power systems Networked and vulnerable information systems Networked and articulated supplies delivery and management systems See work of Lagadec, et al

  12. Expiration of Resources Petroleum Natural gas Potable and irrigation water Food

  13. Violent Conflicts Competition for scarce resources Changing world order Increasingly lethal weapons, with wider distribution Rise of terrorism “Rogue” states

  14. Cumulative Effects-> More Catastrophes Loss of arable land and useable water leads to increased food shortage Increased desperation leads to mass migration, violence, or both Increased intensity of storms presents many direct dangers, but also can contribute to loss of arable land, useable water and food.

  15. What to Do? Mitigation: many worldwide attempts to mitigate climate change and its effects Preparedness: Many European and Asian countries preparing for direct effects. Some intercontinental preparedness activities (Lagadec, et al) FEMA, three approaches

  16. Expectations • Courseinstructors may not have deep background in this field; instructor guidance needs to be comprehensive. • FEMA catastrophe planning provides good examples, but it is rapidly changing. • Students will need to do much background reading (10-15 hrs/wk).

  17. Course Structure • 15-week semester 3 credit hours • 11 core sessions, 2 case studies, 1 tabletop exercise, 1 summary and final exam, and at least 3 add-on sessions • Each session has some kind of class exercise. • Designed for in-class; easily converted to online.

  18. Sessions 1 & 2 • 1. Course Introduction: Definitions, Background, Differences Between Disasters and Catastrophes • Lead developer: Bissell • Status: Available for review and comments • 2. Mechanisms of Past and Future Catastrophes • Lead developer: Bissell • Status: Available for review and comments

  19. Sessions 3-5 • Session 3: Variables and Relationships • Lead developer: David McEntire • Status: Available for review and comments • Session 4: Ethics • Lead developer: Anna Schwab • Status: Will be available 1 July 09 • Session 5: Political and Legal Issues • Lead developer: John Pine • Status: Available for review and comments

  20. Sessions 6-7 • Session 6: Social and Economic Issues • Lead developer: Kevin Simmons • Status: Available for review and comments • Session 7: Logistics, Critical Infrastructure and Public Health • Developers: Tricia Wachtendorf, Rick Bissell, Drew Bumbak • Status: Available for review and comments

  21. Sessions 8-10 • Session 8: Mass Relocation • Lead developer: Anthony Oliver-Smith • Status: Available for review and comments • Session 9: Planning Strategies and Skills: Response • Lead developer: Brian Maguire • Status: Available for review and comments • Session 10: Planning Strategies and Skills: Recovery/Reconstruction • Lead developer: Gavin Smith • Status: Available for review and comments

  22. Sessions 11-13 • Session 11: Emergent Organizations and Networks • Lead developer: Tricia Wachtendorf • Status: Available for review and comments • Session 12: NMSZ and New Catastrophe Planning Methods • Lead developers: Scott Wells, Jasmin Ruback • Status: Expected by July • Session 13: Case Study: Pandemic Flu • Lead developers: Bissell and Tom Kirsch • Status: Available for review and comments

  23. Sessions 14-15 • Session 14: Tabletop Exercise • Lead developer: Myra Socher • Status: Available for review and comments • Session 15: Summary and Exam • Lead developer: Bissell • Status: Expected by July

  24. Add-on Sessions • Leadership • Lead developer: TBA • North Atlantic Collaboration • Lead developer: Erwan Lagadec • Catastrophe Mental Health / PTSD • Lead developer: Jeff Mitchell

  25. Institutional Partners • Center for Transatlantic Relations & the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (Lagadec)

  26. Questions???

  27. Thanks! The Catastrophe Course Team Contact: Bissell@umbc.edu

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