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Michael Pascoe Lies, Damned Lies & Hockeynomics

Michael Pascoe Lies, Damned Lies & Hockeynomics. BusinessDay.com.au. Budget balances 2010-16. Source: Treasury May 2011. Going grey – who pays?. Ghost of budgets past. May 2006 May 2011 Unemployment 4.9% 4.9%

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Michael Pascoe Lies, Damned Lies & Hockeynomics

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  1. Michael PascoeLies, Damned Lies & Hockeynomics BusinessDay.com.au

  2. Budget balances 2010-16 Source: Treasury May 2011

  3. Going grey – who pays? .

  4. Ghost of budgets past... May 2006 May 2011 Unemployment 4.9% 4.9% Home Mortgage 7.55% 7.8% RBA core inflation 2.6% 2.7% Source: RBA, ABS

  5. Ghost of budgets future? May 2006 May 2008 Unemployment 4.9% 4.2% Home Mortgage 7.55% 9.45% RBA core inflation 2.6% 4.1% Source: RBA, ABS

  6. Real retail turnover Source ABS Oct 5

  7. Department stores departing… Source ABS Oct 5

  8. Going nude clothing shoes accessories Source ABS Oct 5

  9. “Other” retailing Source ABS Oct 5

  10. RETAIL BACK TO NORMAL? • Source: Morgan Stanley, ABS

  11. R.I.P. News “We must adapt to the new reality of the political cycle, where facts are boring and expensive to get, while opinion is both entertaining and cheap.” “ The news cycle is getting supplanted by an opinion cycle and basically that opinion cycle is brutal. It is really, really nasty, but it's also very powerful.” - Lachlan Harris, K. Rudd’s former spinner

  12. Value of Australian commodity exports

  13. China: building Europe in 15 years Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

  14. CAPEX KA-BOOM! • Source: ABS Sept 1

  15. MINING CAPEX • Source: ABS Sept 1

  16. Manufacturing capex

  17. Flat housing investment

  18. People – what really counts 2008 Net migration 315,700 Population growth 2.2% (467,300) 2011 (to March 31) Net migration 167,100 Population growth 1.4% (312,400) Source ABS Sept

  19. “Official” Migration Program 2010-11 2011-12 Family 54,550 58,600 Skilled 113,850 125,850 Special 300 550 Total: 168,700 185,000 +16,300 Sustainable spin

  20. 2010-11 2011-12 Total: 168,700 185,000 + Humanitarian program 14,750 (+4,000) + Kiwis 25,000, +“457” visas…. ABS:NOM to March 167,100 Chris Bowen: NOM “in the region of 170,000 - 180,000 over the next few years” Unsustainable spin

  21. The nation not doing it tough

  22. Mining income Source: Treasury May 2011 Source: Aust Treasury

  23. Mining investment Source: Aust Treasury

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