There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

2. INF 397CIntroduction to Research in Library and Information ScienceFall, 2003Randolph G. Bias, Ph.D., CHFP rbias@ischool.utexas.educell: 512-657-3924

3. There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. • Benjamin Disraeli (1804 – 1881), British politician

4. Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. • Aaron Levenstein, U.S. politician

5. The statistics on sanity are that one out of every four Americans is suffering from some form of mental illness. Think of your three best friends. If they're okay, then it's you. • Rita Mae Brown, U.S. author

6. First . . . • There are two components of this and any class: Instruction and Evaluation. • Let’s get the evaluation out of the way, early. • Need one volunteer.

7. “Research shows . . .” • Finger length is a good (and quick!) indicator of intelligence. • One volunteer – measure your finger length in cm.

8. Hmmmm . . . • Everyone in the class will get a grade of “C” • But still, we can continue with the “instruction” part of the course.

9. Oh, so maybe . . . • Just THIS person isn’t too smart. • OK, everyone measure your right index finger. • From the top (last) crease in your hand, to the tip of the finger. • Write down the length, in cm.

10. How to measure

11. Bettin’ Time! • I’ll give everyone one penny. • You HAVE to wager it: • Turn it heads UP on your desk if you think that two people in this classroom share a birthday, and heads DOWN if you think that no two people share a birthday.

12. Questionnaire • Please write down your answer to this question: “I approach this class with confidence and enthusiasm.” 1 – Strongly disagree 2 – Disagree 3 – Neutral 4 – Agree 5 – Strongly agree

13. Please go to the board . . . • . . . And complete the following columns: • Your first name and last initial. • Your birth month and day (I don’t care about the year). • The length of your finger, in cm. • The number of Major League Baseball games you’ve seen, in person. • Your answer (the number) to the questionnaire question. • One favorite hobby.

14. Now, an experiment • I will hand you each a slip of paper. Please read it an do NOT let anyone else read it. • Women receive a pink slip of paper. • Men receive a blue slip of paper. • After everyone has read his/her slip of paper and refolded it, I’ll show some letters of the alphabet, one at a time, for one second each. • After the last one, I’ll say “Go,” and ask you to write down the letters, in order. • Any questions?

15. OK, pencils down! J F M A M J J A S O N D

16. Write down the letters. • In order!

17. Answers J F M A M J J A S O N D

18. Exp. 1 -- Data

19. Who among you . . . • . . . is a statistical wizard? • . . . has experience conducting research?

20. What are some things that you know?

21. Many ways to learn new things • Method of Authority • trusted authority tells you something • Method of Reason • follow basic logical laws from philosophy • Modeling • Trial-and-error • Intuition • Scientific Method • belief on the basis of experience

22. What are some decisions you made today?

23. After this class . . . • You’ll know something about how scientists (information scientists) gather new information. • AND you’ll be good at evaluating information others offer you.

24. Three Paths to “Belief” 1 – Naïve acceptance. 2 – Cynicism. 3 – Critical skepticism.

25. Critical Skepticism! • Rabbit pie story.

26. What you’ll learn: • Validity. (Finger length a good indicator of intelligence?) • Reliability. (“Oh, just measure it however.”) • Sampling – picking a representative sample and then generalizing to a larger population • Why larger samples are better

27. What you’ll learn (cont’d.): • How to represent a group of numbers, meaningfully. • Frequency distributions • Measures of central tendency • Measures of dispersion (spread) • Graphing data • Operationalizing variables (“intelligence”) • Probability • Correlation

28. What you’ll learn (cont’d.): • Different measurement scales • What makes a good research question? • Experimental design • Independent and dependent variables • Controls, counterbalancing, and confounds • Hypothesis testing • Inferential statistics (is THAT number really bigger than THIS number?)

29. Professional History • B.S. in psych from FSU • Ph.D. in cognitive psych from UT-Austin • Bell Labs for 3 years • IBM-Austin for 11 years • BMC Software for 5 years • Co-founded Austin Usability 3 years ago • Previously adjunct faculty member at UT; Have taught at UT, Rutgers, Huston-Tillotson, SWTSU • Newly an assoc. prof. in the UT School of Information

30. Objectives To arm you with a scientist’s skepticism, and a scientist’s tools to conduct research and evaluate others’ research. The student who successfully completes this course will understand: 1 – descriptive statistics, and how to represent a collection of numbers 2 – how to design a good experiment (and evaluate if someone else has) 3 – inferential statistics and hypothesis testing 4 – other techniques human beings use to gain new information, such as qualitative methods.

31. Review syllabus

32. What’s up with “Psychology”?

33. Homework • Bring in one claim that you hear in the next week. On the news, in your reading, in an ad, wherever. • Buy books. (Co-op says they’re in.) • No office hours next Tuesday. See you next week.