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Preparing for the Tokai Earthquake

Preparing for the Tokai Earthquake. Mark Simpson Multicultural Affairs Division. Today’s Schedule. 11:15am~12:00pm Earthquake Presentation and Video No Earthquake Truck.. Further English Information: http://www.e-quakes.pref.shizuoka.jp/center/guidebook/english/index.html

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Preparing for the Tokai Earthquake

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  1. Preparing for the Tokai Earthquake Mark Simpson Multicultural Affairs Division

  2. Today’s Schedule • 11:15am~12:00pm Earthquake Presentation and Video No Earthquake Truck.. Further English Information: http://www.e-quakes.pref.shizuoka.jp/center/guidebook/english/index.html Main source of information (Japanese): http://www.pref.shizuoka.jp/bousai/4higaisoutei/shiryou.html

  3. Mechanisms of an Earthquake • Tectonic plates cover the surface of the Earth • 15 major plates • 4 plates lie under Japan (and3 meet in Shizuoka Prefecture)

  4. Mechanisms of an Earthquake • Tectonic plates can move up to 10cm a year • Energy is released when plates bump and slide

  5. Earthquake Measurements • Richter Scale (1-10) • Represents an earthquake's overall energy and size. • Japanese Scale of Seismic Intensity (1-7) • Represents the size of tremors that happen at a specific location.

  6. Earthquake Patterns • From the Tokai area to the Shikoku region, earthquakes reoccur every 100-150 years • The last Tokai earthquake was in 1854 (=159 years since last earthquake)

  7. Historic Earthquakes

  8. August 11, 2009 • Magnitude 6.5 • Seismic Intensity of weak 6 in Izu City, Makinohara, Yaizu, and Omaezaki • Strong 5, weak 5, or 4 in most of Shizuoka Prefecture • Tsunami of 60cm off the coast of Yaizu (6 minutes after the initial quake) • Not related to the predicted Tokai Earthquake

  9. August 11, 2009 (5:07a.m.)

  10. August 1, 2011 • Magnitude 6.1 • Seismic Intensity of weak 5 in Shizuoka City, Shimizu and Ito • Seismic Intensity of 3 or 4 in most of prefecture • 13 injured and 27 houses damaged • No tsunami generated • Not related to the predicted Tokai Earthquake

  11. August 1, 2011 (11:58p.m.)

  12. The Main Earthquakes • Based on a quake at middle of night in winter

  13. What is actually going on? Eurasian Plate Philippine Sea Plate

  14. What is actually going on?

  15. Can it be predicted? • Use strain gauges and GPS altimeters • 14 Volume strain gauges • 8 Multi-component strain gauges • 197 GPS facilities

  16. Types of strain gauge ●　Volume strain gauge ▲◆Multi-component strain gauge

  17. What can we tell with GPS?

  18. Tokai Advisory/Warning

  19. When an Earthquake Occurs • Stay calm • Protect yourself • Turn off your gas • Secure an exit • Stay away from windows or heavy objects

  20. After an earthquake • Stay calm and be aware of aftershocks • If in a low lying area, IMMEDIATELY seek higher ground • Fill your bathtub if possible • Turn off your electricity at the mains • Grab your emergency kit • Head to your nearest evacuation centre -BUT leave a note on your door explaining where you are!!!

  21. Emergency Kit

  22. Stockpile Items

  23. Safety Measures • Do not place large objects where you sleep • Secure large objects (cabinets, televisions, refrigerators) if possible • Protective film on glass doors and windows

  24. Evacuation Centers

  25. Tsunami Evacuation Centers

  26. Dengon Dial • Activated after a disaster • Call 171, then 1, then your phone number to record a message • Message length 30 seconds, up to 10 • Call 171, then 2, then their phone number to listen to up to 10 recorded messages • Need a land line phone number

  27. Tsunami Tidal Waves • Tidal waves of up to 33min are expected to hit Shizuoka Prefecture before the shaking even subsides Evacuate to high ground IMMEDIATELY following a large earthquake!

  28. Tsunami Tidal Waves

  29. Tsunami Arrival Time

  30. Liquefaction • Large area of Shizuoka Prefecture to be affected • 52% of Fukuroi City at risk • Places closer to water have greatest risk

  31. Tokai – Tonankai – Nankai • Tokai – At any moment • Tonankai - 10% within 10 years 60% within 30 years 80-90% within 50 years • Nankai – 10% within 10 years 40% within 30 years 60% within 50 years (2004 est.)

  32. Advanced Warning System

  33. March 15, 2011 (10:31p.m.) Magnitude 6.4, Depth of 14km. Seismic Intensity of strong 6 in Fujinomiya City Seismic Intensity 3-5 in most of prefecture No tsunami generated Not related to the predicted Tokai Earthquake

  34. Eruption possibility? • All 5 mag. 9+ quakes of 2nd half of 20th century resulted in a major eruption with 3 years. • A magma pocket is thought to be situated 15km beneath Fujinomiya. • Continuous flow of water for months after. • New fault discovered capable of Mag. 7 directly under Mt. Fuji – more research needed.

  35. Other types of natural disasters • Typhoons • Landslides • Nuclear related? • Keikaku Teiden (Scheduled Blackouts)

  36. www.facebook.com/infoshizuoka.eng

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