1 / 26

Preliminary Results from CliPAS/APCC Multi-Model Ensemble Hindcast Experiments

Preliminary Results from CliPAS/APCC Multi-Model Ensemble Hindcast Experiments. Bin Wang and June-Yi Lee IPRC/ICCS, University of Hawaii, USA In-Sik Kang Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea Chung-Kyu Park APCC, Busan, Korea. Acknowledge contributions from all CliPAS investigators.

miracle
Download Presentation

Preliminary Results from CliPAS/APCC Multi-Model Ensemble Hindcast Experiments

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Preliminary Results fromCliPAS/APCC Multi-Model Ensemble Hindcast Experiments Bin Wang and June-Yi Lee IPRC/ICCS, University of Hawaii, USA In-Sik Kang Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea Chung-Kyu Park APCC, Busan, Korea Acknowledge contributions from all CliPAS investigators

  2. About APCC APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) APCN (APEC Climate Network) APCC (APEC Climate Center)

  3. APEC Participating Member Economies

  4. Background: From APCN to APCC • APCN (1999-2004) APCN, “The APEC Climate Network,” is a regional climate program aimed at realizing the APEC vision of regional prosperity through mitigation of economic losses induced by abnormal climate. APCN produces real-time operational climate prediction information based on a well-validated multi-model ensemble system (MMES). • APCC (2005- In order to enhance the activities of APCN, Korea proposed and the APEC Science and Technology Ministry endorsed establishment of APEC Climate Center (APCC) in Korea with a core staff of scientists and computing facilities. The APCC Opening Ceremony will be held on 18-20th November 2005 during the APEC Summit Meeting in Bussan, Korea,.

  5. APCC APCC is an international institute and serves as a hub for APEC regional climate research and prediction To make an effort toward accomplishing the WCRP/COPES vision To provide core facilities and man powers to accomplish the vision.

  6. CliPAS Climate Prediction and Its Application to Society A Joint US-Korea Research Project in Support of APCC Objectives Investigate a set of core scientific problems on multi-model ensemble (MME) climate prediction Establish well-validated MME prediction systems for intraseasonal and seasonal prediction Develop economic and societal application models.

  7. Participating Institutions in CliPAS APCC IPRC- ICCS / UH KMA CES/SNU NCEP COLA GFDL NASA FRCGC FSU

  8. CliPAS Investigators (Oct. 2005)

  9. APCC/CliPAS Project RESEARCH THRUST AREAS • Establish a pilot operational APCC-MME SPS • New methodology for integrating MME predictions • Strategy for Intraseasonal prediction • Interactive multi-model ensemble prediction experiment • Coupled model initialization and data assimilation • Perturbed physics experiments • Climate information system model and socio-economic value assessment models

  10. Current CliPAS/APCC MME Hindcast Experiments One-Tier systems Two-Tier systems SNU SST prediction system CGCM AGCM FSU NASA CFS/NCEP GFDL CAM2 (UH) SINTEX-F SNU SNU/KMA Hybrid CGCM (UH) ECHAM(UH) • 1981 – 2004 summer and winter season for 24 years • Summer: from May 1 to September 30 • Winter: from November 1 to March 31 Experiment Period

  11. MME Hindcast Skill: Temporal Correlation/ 1981-2001 2m Air Temperature DEMETER MMEP APCC MMEP Summer Mean Prediction Winter Mean Prediction

  12. MME Hindcast Skill: Taylor Diagram/ 1981-2001 2m Air Temperature APCC MMEP DEMETER MMEP JJA DJF

  13. MME Hindcast Skill: Temporal Correlation/ 1981-2001 Precipitation APCC MMEP DEMETER MMEP JJA DJF

  14. MME Hindcast Skill: Taylor Diagram /1981-2001 Precipitation DEMETER MMEP APCC MMEP JJA DJF

  15. MME Effective Index/ Precipitation DJF JJA

  16. Wang et al. (2004)

  17. Correlation Coefficients between the observed and 5 AGCM MME hindcasted June-August precipitations (1979-1999) Wang et al. (2005) Fig. 1

  18. El Nino region(10oS-5oN, 80oW-180oW) WNP (5-30oN, 110-150oE) Asian-Pacific MNS (5-30oN, 70-150oE) Area averaged correlation coefficients (skills)

  19. MME Hindcast Skill in AAM region :1981-2001 Precipitation Southeast Asian and WNP region: 80-150E, 5-30N DEMETER MMEP APCC MMEP JJA DJF

  20. MME Effective Index/ Precipitation DJF JJA Southeast Asian and WNP region: 80-150E, 5-30N

  21. One-Tier 1 vs Two-Tier Anomaly PCC over AAM (JJA) ENSO vs Precipitation SST vs. Precipitation

  22. Probabilistic MMEP Range of Area of ROC Curve/ Above Normal Precipitation APCC DEMETER JJA DJF Probabilistic forecast for above normal precipitation greater than 0.5 standard deviation

  23. Deterministic and Probabilistic MMEP Potential Economic Value/ Above Normal 2m Air Temp APCC DEMETER Probabilistic forecast for above normal 2m air temperature greater than 0.5 standard deviation over ENSO Region

  24. Summary of the Preliminary Results • The CliPAS blended one- and two-tier MME hindcasts • have skills comparable to DEMETER in precipitation and • surface temperature prediction, although their individual • modles’ performance is lower that those of DEMETERs. • b. The CliPAS MME is more effective due to their larger • mutual independence as evidenced from their larger • range of their skills . • c. The MME is more effective when and where individual • models have moderate performances while potential • predictability is large. MME is more applicable to the • summer monsoon regions. • d. In A-A summer monsoon heavy precipitation regions, • one-tier is superior to two-tier system due to increased • feedback from the local surface SST and improved ENSO • teleconnections.

More Related