Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation (Work Package 3) Screening of NEEAPs, Status Jan 2008

1. Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation (Work Package 3)Screening of NEEAPs, Status Jan 2008 Dr. Ralf Schüle Senior Consultant and Project Co-ordinator Wuppertal Institute - RG II: Energy, Transport and Climate Policy Daniel Becker Senior Consultant ECOFYS Germany GmbH Presentation given at the Interparliamentary Meeting on RE and EE at the European Sustainable Energy Week 2008January 29, 2008 Brussels

2. Tasks of Evaluation • Task 1: Definition of Criteria for Evaluation • Task 2: Evaluation of NEEAPs • Screening (27) • In depth-evaluation (10-12) •  Categorisation of energy efficiency measures •  Country reports •  Sectoral reports • Update of evaluation after acceptance • Task 3: Highlighting Good Practice / What does not work • Task 4: Reporting and EEW-Brochures Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

3. Time Schedule Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

4. Requirements of the ESD • ESD requires MS to submit threeNEEAPs to EC as of 2016 • The first NEEAP was due by June 30, 2007 • Only a few requirements for NEEAPs are preset: • National indicative annual energy savings target adopted for 2016 (GWh) • National intermediate indicative annual energy savings target adopted for 2010 (GWh) • Energy efficiency improvement programmes, energy services, and other measures planned for achieving the target • Measures to implement Article 7 addressing the public sector Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

5. Criteria of Screening (1) Status and Design 1.1 Status of plan 1.2 Energy Savings (Target in TWh) (1) percent of energy consumption (+/- 9%?) (2) percent of saving potential 1.3 GHG impact, expected contribution to emissions reduction/ conversion factor used 1.4 Early Action / Additionality of Measures 1.5 Early Savings 1.6 Consistency of national to ESD targets Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

6. Criteria of Screening (2) 2. Effectiveness of instruments 2.1 Policy Packages per sector 2.2 Involvement of Energy Supply Sector (qualitatively, covered sectors, fuels, %targets?) 2.3 Role of public sector 2.4 Role of Energy Services (acc. ESD) 2.5 Financing Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

7. Criteria of Screening (3) 3. Monitoring and Evaluation 3.1 Existence of ex ante estimates through sectors 3.2 Transparency of calculation 3.3 Plausibility of calculation 3.4 Information on evaluation and methodologies (bottom up or/and top down) 3.5 Plausibility of methods Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

8. First Impressions • Only few MS took deadline seriously (5 still missing) • Very heterogeneous designs, contents and levels of information provided • Illustrative and impressive collection of measures enables international mutual learning • In fact, collection of measures addressing broadens thinking about EE from isolated measures to coherent policy packages • In most cases, relationship between technical energy saving potentials, energy saving targets and EEI-measures to be implemented is weak or not transparent (to be shown more detailed by EEW-evaluation) Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

9. Criterion: Availability Availability of 27 plans • Four are not yet available, • Five are only available as a preliminary version / draft • Two are not available in English (as of January 15, 2008) Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

10. Criterion: Energy Saving Target Energy Saving Target • Most of MS will achieve their target, (to be verified whether compliance is realistic on the basis of measures and packages listed) • Some MS base their calculations on national EE plans, partly not consistent with ESD requirements • Five MS want to overachieve the target (UK, IRE, LIT, DEN, CYP) Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

11. Criterion: GHG-Impacts GHG-Emissions • Only few MS explicitly calculate the GHG effect of measures Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

12. Criterion: Additional Measures Additional Measures • Most of MS distinguish between measures already implemented and additional measures • (mostly according to national EE development plans or sectoral plans) • Good quantity of additional measures to be implemented Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

13. Criterion: Early Savings • Early Savings • Eight MS claim early savings (1995 pp.), especially GER and AUT Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

14. Criterion: Policy Packages Policy Packages • In most of the MS, thinking in „policy packages“ is basis of domestic policy(„small“ and „large“ packages) • Agricultural sector underrepresented (especially France and Poland) Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

15. Criterion: Financing Energy Savings Financing Only a few countries address the issue of financing EE-measures e.g. DEN, HUN, GER, UK (not required) Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

16. Criterion: Involvement of Energy Supplier Involvement of Energy Supplier In most of MS, energy suppliers are or will be involved in the process of implementation of EE policies, partly quantified in its contribution, partly as addressee of measures Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

17. Criterion: Involvement of Public Sector Public Sector In most of MS, the public sector has been assigned an important role in implementing ee-policies Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

18. Criterion: Role of Energy Services Energy Services In most NEEAPs, the role of Energy services is neglected Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

19. Criterion: Ex Ante Estimates Ex ante estimates • Only half of MS conducted ex ante estimates, related to potentials • Urgent need for ISI-potential study (end Feb.) Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

20. Criterion: Monitoring and Evaluation Monitoring and Evaluation AUT, BUL, CZ, GER, FIN, ITA, LAT, UK provide information on evaluation methods (mostly bottom up) Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

21. Summary • Availability: • 11 of 27 plans are either not available, available as a preliminary version or are not available in English (as of January 15, 2008) • Energy Saving Target: • Most of MS will achieve their target, to be verified whether compliance is realistic on the basis of the measures and packages listed. • Few MS rely their calculations on national EE plans, partly not consistent with ESD requirements • Two MS will overachieve the target (UK, IRE, LIT, DEN, CYP) • Early Action/Early Savings/Additionality • Most of MS do not clearly distinguish between EA, ES and additional measures • In Austria and Germany, early action will to a large extend contribute to ESD-compliance (43 and 45%), Lithuania: 17% • In many MS, additional measures will be implemented to achieve the required target Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

22. Summary • Policy Packages: • In most of the MS, thinking in „policy packages“ is basis of domestic policy(„small“ and „large“ packages) • Some countries count the implementation of related EU-directives to domestiv measures • Agricultural sector underrepresented • Financing • Only a few countries address the issue of financing EE-measures (e.g. DEN; HUN; GER, UK) • Public Sector, Energy Supplier, Energy Services • In most of MS, public sector has been assigned an important role in implementing ee-policies • Also in most of MS, energy suppliers are or will be involved in the process of implementation of ee policies • Energy services are predominantly neglected Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

23. Summary • Ex ante estimates • Only half of MS conducted ex ante estimates, related to potentials • Urgend need for ISI-potential study • Monitoring and evaluation • Only AUT, BUL, CZ, GER, FIN, ITA, LAT, UK provide information on evaluation methods (mostly bottom up) Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

24. Policy Conclusions • From diversity to harmonisation • harmonisation of NEEAPs (template) • harmonisation of evaluation methods (EMEEES) • From plan to implementation • urge MS with pending or drafted plans to submit • urge MS to implement/monitor and improve EEI measures listed in the NEEAPs • clear distinction between/definition of early action, early savings, additional savings/measures • From energy savings to GHG-emissions reductions • explicit documentation of GHG-effects (although not required) Energy Efficiency Watch Evaluation - 2nd project meeting

25. Thank you for your attention! Daniel Becker Ecofys Germany GmbH ++49 30 2977357920 d.becker@ecofys.de Dr. Ralf Schüle Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie ++49/(0)202/2492-110ralf.schuele@wupperinst.org