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Drivers of Credit Losses in Australasian Banking

Explore the factors influencing credit losses in Australasian banks with a focus on methodologies, results, and conclusions from extensive credit loss data analysis. Contact: Kurt Hess, University of Waikato. Email: kurthess@waikato.ac.nz.

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Drivers of Credit Losses in Australasian Banking

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  1. Drivers of Credit Losses in Australasian Banking Slides prepared byKurt HessUniversity of Waikato Management School, Department of FinanceHamilton, New Zealand

  2. Credit Risks Mt Ruapehu (New Zealand) eruption June 18, 1996, viewed from southwest (photo by D.J. Lowe, http://www.qub.ac.uk/arcpal/Tephra/inquatephra/Ruapehu.jpg) Picture of Ruapehu after first autumn snow fall21 April 2008 Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  3. Motivation Literature review Credit loss data Australasia Methodological issues Results Conclusions Topics Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  4. Motivation • Stability and integrity of banking systems are of utmost importance to national economies • Credit losses, or more generally, asset quality problems have repeatedly been identified as the ultimate trigger of bank failures [e.g. in Graham & Horner (1988), Caprio & Klingebiel (1996)] Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  5. Motivation • Prudential supervisory agencies need to understand drivers of credit losses in banking system • Validation of proprietary credit risk models & parameters under Basel II • This is the first specific research of long term drivers of credit losses for Australian banking system Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  6. Literature review Two main streams of research that analyse drivers of banks’ credit losses (or more specifically loan losses): • Literature with regulatory focus looks at macro & micro factors • Literature looks discretionary nature of loan loss provisions and behavioural factors which affect them Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  7. Literature review • Behavioural hypotheses in the literature on the discretionary nature of loan loss provisions • Income smoothing:Greenawalt & Sinkey (1988) • Capital management: Moyer (1990) • Signalling: Akerlof (1970), Spence (1973) • Taxation Management Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  8. Literature review • Studies with global samples (using commercial data providers): • Cavallo & Majnoni (2001),Bikker & Metzemakers (2003) • Country-specific samples • Austria: Arpa et al. – (2001) • Italy: Quagliarello (2004) • Australia: Esho & Liaw (2002)(in this APRA report the authors study level of impaired assets for loans in Basel I risk buckets for 16 Australian banks 1991 to 2001) Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  9. Literature review • Research based on original published financial accounts is rare (very large effort to collect data). • Pain (2003): 7 UK commercial banks & 4 mortgage banks 1978-2000 • Kearns (2004):14 Irish banks, early 1990s to 2003 • Salas & Saurina (2002): Spain Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  10. Credit Loss Data Australasia • The database includes extensive financial and in particular credit loss data for • 23 Australian + 10 New Zealand banks • Time period from 1980 to 2005 • Approximately raw 55 data elements per institution, of which 12 specifically related to the credit loss experience (CLE) of the bank Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  11. Credit Loss Data Australasia Sample selection criteria • Registered banks • Must have substantial retail and/or rural banking business • Exclude pure wholesale and/or merchant banking institutions Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  12. Credit Losses and GDP Growth (New Zealand Banks) Provisioning/write-off behaviour correlated to macro factors Note: chart for NZ Bank sub-sample only Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  13. Credit Loss Data Australasia Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  14. Drivers of Credit Losses in Australasian Banking Methodology

  15. Principal Model CLEitCredit loss experience for bank i in period t xkit Observations of the potential explanatory variable k for bank i and period t uit Random error term with distribution N(0,),  Variance-covariance matrix of it error terms n Number of banks in sample T Years in observation period K Number of explanatory variables zkMaximum lag of the explanatory variable k of the model q Maximum lag of the dependent variable of the model Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 15 6-Jun-14

  16. Principal Model Principal model on previous slide allows for many potential functional forms. There are choices with regard to Dependent CLE proxy Suitable drivers of credit losses and lags for these drivers Estimation techniques Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 16 6-Jun-14

  17. Determinants of Credit Losses Macro Factors (1) Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  18. Determinants of Credit Losses Macro Factors (2) Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  19. Determinants of Credit Losses Bank Specific Factors (1) Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  20. Determinants of Credit Losses Bank Specific Factors (2) Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  21. Determinants of Credit Losses Bank Specific Factors (3) Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  22. Determinants of Credit Losses Bank Specific Factors (4) Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  23. Pooled regression model as per equation 1 in paper Dependent Impaired asset expense as CLE proxy Determinants (as per table next slide) Alternative macro factors: GDP growth, unemployment rate Alternative asset shock proxies: share index, house prices Misc. bank-specific proxies Bank past growth Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 23 6-Jun-14

  24. Dependent variables in model Aggregate Bankspecific Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 24 6-Jun-14

  25. Drivers of Credit Losses in Australasian Banking Empirical results

  26. Results macro state factors see Table 8, 9,10 in paper • GDP growth (GDPPGRW), change and level of the unemployment rate (UNEMP, DUNEMP) have expected effect (not all lags significant) • Unemployment with best explanatory power for overall sample Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  27. Results macro state factors (2) Country-specific differences between Australia and New Zealand Australia’s results show much greater sensitivities to GDP growth (see Table 9) New Zealand results are less significant and effects of GDP and UNEMP seem more delayed see Table 8, 9,10 in paper Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 27 6-Jun-14

  28. Results asset price factors see Table 8, 9,10 in paper • Contemporaneous coefficient of share index return negative & significant for overall and Australia. Less significant for NZ. • Housing price index has less sigificanceIntuition: early 90s crises not rooted in particular problems of the housing sector Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  29. Results CPI growth Positive, but not significant coefficients for most regressions, i.e. inflationary pressure tends to lift credit losses Contemporaneous term negative and significant for Australian sub-sample, in line with evidence elsewhere that inflation may lead to temporary improvement of borrower quality (Tommasi, 1994) see Table 8, 9,10 in paper Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 29 6-Jun-14

  30. Results size proxy Higher level of provisioning for larger banks – no significance of coefficients, however Intuition: portfolios of smaller institutions often dominated by (comparably) lower risk housing loans see Table 8, 9,10 in paper Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 30 6-Jun-14

  31. Results net interest margin Generally negative, contemporaneous and 2yr lagged term significant, i.e. Lower past margins lead to higher subsequent losses (induce risk taking) Difficult to explain contemporaneous negative term Inconclusive results also in comparable studies, e.g. Salas & Saurina (2002) for Spain see Table 8, 9,10 in paper Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 31 6-Jun-14

  32. Results net interest margin (2) Endogenous nature of net interest margins as postulated by Ho & Saunders (1981) dealership model. Spread increases with … Market power (inelastic demand) Bank risk aversion Larger size of transactions (loans/deposits) Interest rate volatility Net interest margins may thus control for other bank specific & market characteristics see Table 8, 9,10 in paper Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 32 6-Jun-14

  33. Results cost efficiency (CIR) High and increasing cost income ratios are associated with higher credit losses Results reject alternative hypothesis that banks are inefficient because they spend to much resources on borrower monitoring Not surprising as “gut feel” would tell that excessive monitoring might not pay see Table 8, 9,10 in paper Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 33 6-Jun-14

  34. Results earnings proxy Very clear evidence of income smoothing activities, i.e. banks increase provisions in good years, withhold them in weak years. Confirms similar results found in many other studies see Table 8, 9,10 in paper Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 34 6-Jun-14

  35. Results past bank growth Clear evidence of the fast growing banks faced with higher credit losses in future (lags beyond 2 years) Managers seem unable (or unwilling) to assess true risks of expansive lending Much clearer results than in other studies. Possibly due to test design with longer lags considered. see Table 8, 9,10 in paper Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 35 6-Jun-14

  36. Conclusions • Model presented here is very suitable for assessing general / global effects on impaired assets in the banking sector • The dynamics of this transmission seems to differ among systems • A study of particular effects might thus call for alternative models Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  37. Conclusions (2) • Income smoothing is a reality, possibly also with new tighter IFRS provisioning rules as this ultimately remains a discretionary managerial decision Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  38. Conclusions (3) Use data base for comparative studies of alternative CLE dependent variables First results show that they (in part) correlate rather poorly which means there must be caution comparing results of studies unless CLE is defined in exactly the same way Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 38 6-Jun-14

  39. La Fin Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  40. Credit Loss Experience of Australasian Banks Back-up Slides

  41. Basel II Pillars • Pillar 1: • Minimum capital requirements • Pillar 2: • A supervisory review process • Pillar 3: • Market discipline (risk disclosure) Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  42. Basel II Pillars Pages in New Basel Capital Accord (issued June 2004) Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  43. Pro Memoria: Calculation Capital Requirements under Basel II Unchanged Total Capital Credit Risk + Market Risk + Operational Risk  8% (Could be set higher under pillar 2) Significantly Refined Relatively Unchanged New Source: slide inspired by PWC presentation slide retrieved 27/7/2005 from http://asp.amcham.org.sg/downloads/Basel%20II%20Update%20-%20ACC.ppt , Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  44. Basel II – IRB Approach Two approaches developed for calculating capital minimums for credit risk: • Standardized Approach (essentially a slightly modified version of the current Accord) • Internal Ratings-Based Approach (IRB) • foundation IRB - supervisors provide some inputs • advanced IRB (A-IRB) - institution provides inputs Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  45. Basel II – IRB Approach • Internal Ratings-Based Approach (IRB) • Under both the foundation and advanced IRB banks are required to provide estimates for probability of default (PD) • It is commonly known that macro factor are the main determinants of PD Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  46. Primer Loan Loss Accounting Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  47. Primer Loan Loss Accounting Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  48. Credit Loss Data Australasia BNZ 1984 - 2002 Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  49. Credit Loss Data Australasia Banks in sample AUSTRALIA: Adelaide Bank, Advance Bank, ANZ, Bendigo Bank, Bank of Melbourne, Bank West, Bank of Queensland, Commercial Banking Company of Sydney, Challenge Bank, Colonial State Bank, Commercial Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank, Elders Rural Bank, NAB, Primary Industry Bank of Australia, State Bank of NSW, State Bank of SA, State Bank of VIC, St. George Bank, Suncorp-Metway, Tasmania Bank, Trust Bank Tasmania, Westpac NEW ZEALAND: ANZ National Bank, ASB, BNZ, Countrywide Bank, NBNZ, Rural Bank, Trust Bank NZ, TSB Bank, United Bank, Westpac (NZ) Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz

  50. Credit Loss Data Australasia Data issues Macro level statistics Differing formats between NZ and Australiae.g. indebtedness of households / firms House price series back to 1986 only for Australia Balance sheets of M3 institutions only back to 1988 for New Zealand (use private sector credit statistics instead) Kurt Hess, WMS kurthess@waikato.ac.nz 50 6-Jun-14

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