Stefanie Baasch ( Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ)

1. Social-scientific scenarios for discussing climate change adaptation governance at a regional level Stefanie Baasch(Helmholtz Centrefor Environmental Research - UFZ) Sybille Bauriedl(University of Kassel) KLIMZUG-Northern Hesse, Project „Participation, Acceptanceand Regional Governance“ The Governanceof Adaptation: International Symposium Amsterdam March, 2012

2. Context • The subproject‘stargets • Analysingsynergiesandconflictsbetweenfieldsofactionandbetweenactorgroups • Adivsefor innovative governanceformations in themodelregion Northern Hesse • Scenario worktargets • Alternative scenariosforillustrating potential decisionprocesses (withregardtovalues, regulationforms) • Description ofhypothetic, realitybased regional developments • Communication instrumentforidentifyingsynergies, conflictsandactorsforthedevelopmentandimplementationof regional adaptationstrategies • Stimulatingdebatesaboutfuturedevelopmentswithandbetweenlocalstakeholders • Detectinglinkagesbetweenprocessesanddecisions

3. Empirical Design Step1 Step2 Step 3 Step 4

4. Results of the Probing Workshops High uncertainty about concrete regional climate change impacts But: no doubt that climate change is happening No distinction between climate protection and adaptation Fields of action differ strongly in their time requirements  Effects adaptation needs Lack of factual knowledge (adequate adaptation measures) Need for integrative strategies Esp. climate protection, sustainability, regional value creation Close interplay among the fields of action (utilisation / goal conflicts)

5. Scenario Workshops • Format • 9 – 12 regional stakeholders: business, administration, civilsociety, science • Moderateddiscussionwithvisualand verbal presentationofthescenarios • Procedure • Scenario presentationanddiscussion • Plausabilityofthethree alternative scenarios? • What do youthinkaboutthese potential developmentsregardingthefollowingobjectives: • Regional valuecreation, socio-economicdevelopment, climateprotection, socialjustice, natureprotection • Additional influencingfactors? • Derivingadequatemeasuresfor regional climatechangeadaptation

6. framework conditions development path scenarios ecologic focus regional climate change demographic change economic structure land use political framework „strong state“ designs environmental protection • agreement regional network approaches market forces support new technologies • economic focus Basic Conditionsand Trends Basic conditions for the alternative scenarios 1. Climatological scenarios (increasing drought, storms, hail, diseases, pest) 2. Regional economic trends (decreasing employment figures, expansion of renewable energy) 3. Demographic change (partially extreme depopulation) 4. Political framework (objective agreements, promotion of renewable energy) 2010 2020 2030

7. Scenario ConceptsofSustainability ecology A „ecologic focus“ strong state (national, EU level) global climate protection B „agreement“ moderating state (federal state, districts) regional adaptation C „economic focus“cautios state economy society international competition

8. IngredientsoftheScenarios: Agriculture 2030

9. Spatial structure Management of areas Flora / Fauna Vulnerability biodiversity monoculture ecological farming biomass plant water reservoir population center supraregional rivers administrative border of the model region Northern-Hesse farmed intensively farmed extensively nature conservation damages: storm, hail animal pest, diseases waterstress Visualising Alternative Development Scenarios Agriculture 2030 Scenario A: Ecologic focus Scenario B: Agreement Scenario C: Economic focus Spatial fragmentation of protected and productive land Multifunctional productive land Spatial concentration of the cultivation of energy plants

10. Main Results • Content • Ambivalent argumentation • Concerning the stakeholders’ capacity to take an active role in the adaptation process and the non existing need for more participation • Economic rationality and the impact of governmental frameworks (e.g. environmental laws) • Rationalisation of decision processes and opinions (inconsistent statements) • Planning certainty of subsidies is more important than uncertainties regarding regional climate change (adaptive capacity depends on investment potentials) • which means the investment potential determents climate change adaptation strategies and the implementation of measures • Demographic change was regarded as a weak variable (repression, political reasons) • Climate change is currently not a main driver for regional stakeholders, more important are economic and legal factors • Method • Complexity of scenarios and the stakeholder‘s practical knowledge are difficult to combine • Use of terms • Variety of understanding of terms (alternative, sustainability)

11. Remarks • Scenarios – an adequatetoolforstakeholderparticipation? • Stakeholdersreported negative experiencences in formerscenarioworkshops (participation in proceedings) • Stakeholdersworriedthatthescenarioscouldbeheldas „truth“ • Analysingstakeholders‘ statements: • Howto deal withinconsistencies, rationalisations, tactical / politicalstatements (e.g. demographicchange) etc. • Dealingwithsideeffects: • Group dynamics, misunderstandingsofterms, hierachicalorder… • Interdisciplinarycompetition (social / naturalscience) • Evaluation ofinterventionimpacts

12. www.klimzug-nordhessen.decontact baasch@uni-kassel.de bauriedl@uni-kassel.de