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We know enough to at least start

We know enough to at least start. Michael A. Taylor A. Anthony Chen, Tannecia Stephenson Jayaka Campbell, Rhodene Watson, AMD Amarakoon. Climate Studies Group, Mona Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona. Premise. Climate change and sustainable development. Dynamics.

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We know enough to at least start

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  1. We know enough to at least start Michael A. Taylor A. Anthony Chen, Tannecia Stephenson Jayaka Campbell, Rhodene Watson, AMD Amarakoon Climate Studies Group, Mona Department of Physics University of the West Indies, Mona

  2. Premise Climate change andsustainable development Dynamics Projections Practical Links Conclusion

  3. Premise Climate change is happening… Dynamics Projections Practical Links Conclusion 'Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.' 'Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likelydue to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. - IPCC (2007)

  4. Premise Climate change is happening… Dynamics Projections Practical Links Conclusion 'Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.' 'Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likelydue to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. - IPCC (2007)

  5. Premise Climate change is happening… Dynamics Projections Practical Links Conclusion For precipitation, analysis of updated trends and results for regions that were missing at the time of the TAR show increases in heavy events for the majority of observation stations, with some increase in flooding. This result applies both for areas where total precipitation has increased and for areas where total precipitation has even decreased. Increasing trends are also reported for more rare precipitation events…

  6. Premise Climate change is happening… Dynamics Projections Practical Links Conclusion Climate models under various scenarios predict 1.4 – 5.8o C increase between 1990 and 2100. Larger than any century scale increase ever seen before!

  7. Premise Climate change is happening… Dynamics Projections Practical Links Conclusion … Implications for the Caribbean which is very climate sensitive.

  8. Premise Climate change is happening… Dynamics Projections Practical Links Conclusion

  9. Premise Climate change is happening… Dynamics Projections IMPACTS Practical Links Conclusion

  10. Premise Climate change is happening… Dynamics Projections Adaptation IMPACTS Practical Links Conclusion

  11. Premise Climate change is happening… Dynamics Projections Practical Links Conclusion … Adapting to climate change is a means of pursuing sustainable development … So why aren’t we doing it?

  12. Premise Climate change is happening… Dynamics Projections … So why aren’t we doing it? Practical Links Conclusion Knowledge deficiencies“Don’t know enough about climate change impacts on the region to either justify or risk action” Information NeedsRelevance – Targeted climate change info. Not globe, Caribbean.Appropriate Scale – Country and station level not globeConfidence – Trust the info.

  13. Premise Climate change is happening… Dynamics Projections Practical Links We know more than we think we do! Conclusion Information exists today satisfying 3 criteria.Illustrate with work of the Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM)Dept. of PhysicsUniversity of the West Indies.

  14. Premise Caribbean Climate Dynamics Dynamics Projections Practical Links Conclusion Data Study: Taylor and Alfaro (2002)

  15. Premise Caribbean Climate Dynamics Dynamics Projections Mean Annual Rainfall Practical Links 1. Dry Season December - April Conclusion 2. Rainfall Season May - November Peaks in September/October 3. Bimodal - MSD Early season - May-July Late Season - August –November

  16. Premise Caribbean Climate Dynamics Dynamics Projections • Movement of North Atlantic High (NAH) • April - November • Reduced vertical shear Practical Links Conclusion • Easterly/Tropical Waves • Late May-November • 3-5 days • Strengthen • SST Increase • April-October (peak) • >27oC

  17. Premise Caribbean Climate Dynamics Dynamics Projections Practical Links We have a good understanding of the dynamics of the mean Caribbean climate…and… Conclusion …by understanding the dynamics of the mean we can therefore understand the deviations from the mean!

  18. Premise Caribbean Climate Dynamics Dynamics Projections El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall Practical Links Conclusion Spence, Taylor et al. (2004)Taylor, Enfield et al. (2002)Stephenson, Chen, Taylor (2007)Use SVD and Correlation Analysis to analyse patterns of tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) that co-vary with Caribbean rainfall.

  19. Premise Caribbean Climate Dynamics Dynamics Projections El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall Practical Links Conclusion • El Niño (La Niña) is an unusual warming (cooling) of the tropical Pacific Ocean. • Prompts changes in weather patterns across the globe. • Occurs irregularly at approximately 3-6 year intervals. El Niño La Niña

  20. Premise Caribbean Climate Dynamics Dynamics Projections El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall Practical Links Conclusion ENSO SST pattern and associated rainfall pattern over the Caribbean during November - January Wet north – dry south

  21. Premise Caribbean Climate Dynamics Dynamics Projections El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall Practical Links Conclusion Atlantic SST pattern and associated rainfall pattern over the Caribbean during May - July Wet Caribbean (El Nino+1 year)

  22. Premise Caribbean Climate Dynamics Dynamics Projections El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall Practical Links Conclusion Atlantic SST pattern and associated rainfall pattern over the Caribbean during August - October Dry region

  23. Premise Caribbean Climate Dynamics Dynamics Projections El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall Practical Links Conclusion Since El Niño predictable with lead time of few months……possible to do seasonal forecasts for Caribbean region….

  24. Premise Caribbean Climate Dynamics Dynamics Projections El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall Practical Links Conclusion Plot of forecasted versus observed rainfall anomalies for southeastern Caribbean for model using El Niño (September-October) predictor. Dashed lines and circles represent forecasted values (Ashby, Taylor et al. 2005)

  25. Premise Caribbean Climate Dynamics Dynamics Projections El Niño and Caribbean Rainfall Practical Links Conclusion Since El Niño predictable with lead time of few months……possible to do seasonal forecasts for Caribbean region…. …and enable planning!

  26. Premise Future Caribbean Climate Dynamics Projections Practical Links Wetter Conclusion Info exists on future climate for Caribbean from GCMs…. Hotter …but scale too coarse! Model-simulated temperature/ precipitation response to forcing scenario. Scenario is depicted by colour of the point (A1FI - red, A2 - grey, B1 - green and B2 - violet). Ovals show 95% Gaussian contour ellipses of the natural internal tridecadal variability.

  27. Premise Future Caribbean Climate Dynamics PRECIS Caribbean Project Projections Practical Links Conclusion • PRECIS is a regional model (15 km - 50 km). • Run over a Caribbean domain exclusively • Forced at boundaries by GCMs • Performs reasonably well with current climate. • Run for a time slice in the future (2070-2099), A2, B1 and B2 scenarios • Run for baseline (1960-1990) to evaluate change. • Done as part of a collaborative project (Cuba, Belize, Barbados)

  28. Premise Future Caribbean Climate Dynamics PRECIS Caribbean Project Projections Practical Links Conclusion

  29. Premise Future Caribbean Climate Dynamics Temperatures Projections Practical Links Conclusion Irrespective of scenario the Caribbean expected to warm.Warming between 1 and 5oC Warming greater under A2 scenario. Warming consistent with projections for other parts of globe.

  30. Premise Future Caribbean Climate Dynamics Temperatures Projections Practical Links Warming is year round. Nowhere and at no time in the year is the Caribbean cooler than present. Summer warming greatest. Under A2 warming up to 5oC in larger islands Sea surface temperatures also warmer Conclusion DJF JJA

  31. Premise Future Caribbean Climate Dynamics Rainfall Projections Practical Links Conclusion For both scenarios Caribbean is in general drier. Up to 30% drier. Drying more severe under A2 scenario Far north Caribbean however could be wetter

  32. Premise Future Caribbean Climate Dynamics Temperatures Projections Practical Links Southern Caribbean dry year round. Far north Caribbean wetter between December and March Drying in late season (when normally get most rain) most severe. DJF Conclusion JJA

  33. Premise Future Caribbean Climate Dynamics Vertical shear Projections Practical Links In the mean there is stronger shear in main Caribbean basin, particularly across the main development region (MDR) In wet season, the change in shear is positive and high. Pattern consistent with rainfall changes. Pattern for A2 most severe.Strengthening at lower levels evident (not shown) Conclusion Annual SON

  34. Premise Future Caribbean Climate Dynamics Cloud Cover Projections Practical Links Conclusion Jan General reduction in cloud cover year round in main Caribbean basin. Pattern consistent with rainfall changes. Reduction for A2 most severe. Sept

  35. Premise Future Caribbean Climate Dynamics Extreme weather Projections Practical Links Conclusion • PRECIS • Can identify hurricane like features

  36. Premise Future Caribbean Climate Dynamics Projections Practical Links Other work underwayStatistical downscaling – generating future climates at country and station scale e.g. Kingston Airport, Piarco. Conclusion

  37. Premise Future Caribbean Climate Dynamics Confidence? Projections Practical Links Conclusion • Trendlines significant at 1% level • Frequency of Hot days and hot nights increasing • True for rest of world. (nights > days) Peterson, Taylor et al. (2002)

  38. Premise Future Caribbean Climate Dynamics Confidence? Projections Practical Links • Trendlines significant at 1% level • Frequency of cool days and nights decreasing • True for rest of world. Conclusion Peterson, Taylor et al. (2002)

  39. Premise Climate-Sectoral Linkages Dynamics Dengue Projections Practical Links The Threat of Dengue Fever – Assessments of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Human Health in the Caribbean - Chen et al. (2006) Conclusion Funded by Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC)

  40. Premise Climate-Sectoral Linkages Dynamics Dengue Projections Practical Links Conclusion

  41. Premise Climate-Sectoral Linkages Dynamics Dengue Projections Practical Links • Climate data from regional Met Services. • Temperature (maximum, minimum and mean) and Precipitation, daily or monthly values. Climate data for Jamaica were supplemented by gridded data from Tyndall Centre, UEA, UK (Tim Mitchell). • Epidemiological data from the Caribbean Epidemiological Center (CAREC) • In the form of reported dengue cases and vector indices, annual, 4-week periods. • Data analysis: Analysis of time series of reported cases, rates of change, mean temperature, mean precipitation, temperature and precipitation anomalies. Studyof the climatology Statistical tests for correlations and multiple linear regression. • Main study period: 1980 to 2001. • Data from Jamaica and Trinidad. Conclusion

  42. Premise Climate-Sectoral Linkages Dynamics Dengue Projections Practical Links Conclusion Seasonal pattern to dengue outbreaks…

  43. Premise Climate-Sectoral Linkages Dynamics Dengue Projections Practical Links Conclusion Hot  Wet  Dengue

  44. Premise Climate-Sectoral Linkages Dynamics Dengue Projections Practical Links Conclusion Linkage to El NiñoDue to rainfall and temperature changes

  45. Premise Climate-Sectoral Linkages Dynamics Dengue Projections Practical Links Conclusion Future 2o C rise in temperature suggests increased dengue threat due to climate change

  46. Premise Climate-Sectoral Linkages Dynamics Dengue Projections Practical Links (MAT) = Conclusion Moving Average Temperature Index TN is the average temperature during the Nth 4 week period or month M = 1, 2, 3,…13 or 12. Examples: For 1st 4 week period or 1st month, M=1 and For 2nd period or month, M=2 and For 4th period or month M= 4 and

  47. Premise Climate-Sectoral Linkages Dynamics Dengue Projections Practical Links Conclusion MAT useful as forbearer of epidemic onset…

  48. Premise Climate-Sectoral Linkages Dynamics Dengue Projections Practical Links Analysis Surveillance Response Conclusion Response Implementation MAT & Climate forecasts Risk analysis, vulnerability assessment Ongoing epidemiological surveillance and environmental observations Public communication MAT useful as part of disease early warning scheme! Disease watch/warning Ongoing prevention and evaluation Response Strategy Evaluation, feedback

  49. Premise Climate-Sectoral Linkages Dynamics Water Projections Practical Links Similar work ongoing for the water sector in Jamaica. (Chen and Taylor, 2008) Conclusion Average of A2 and B2 projected changes in streamflow at Hope River and precipitation at Manley, URCR and in region 3 for 2015s, 2030s, 2050s and 2080s

  50. Premise Final Thoughts Dynamics • We know more… • Caribbean Climate Science has advanced much in recent past • Good idea of dynamics governing mean Caribbean climate and those governing deviations from mean - RELEVANCE • Good idea of future climate of Caribbean as a whole and of individual territories – SCALE • Good idea of how climate changed in past – CONFIDENCE • Good idea of some linkages between society and climate – RELEVANCE • Knowledge deficit perhaps not as wide… Projections Practical Links Conclusion

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