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Role of Stats in the NBA

Role of Stats in the NBA. By: Candice Zhou. APBRmetrics. APBRmetrics = A ssociation for Professional Basketball Research Metrics Fancy term for basketball statistics Basketball’s answer to Sabermetrics (study of baseball statistics) Focuses on evaluation at level of possessions

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Role of Stats in the NBA

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  1. Role of Stats in the NBA By: Candice Zhou

  2. APBRmetrics • APBRmetrics = Association for Professional Basketball Research Metrics • Fancy term for basketball statistics • Basketball’s answer to Sabermetrics (study of baseball statistics) • Focuses on evaluation at level of possessions • Ex: measuring points scored per 100 possessions (Offensive Rating), points allowed per 100 possessions (Defensive Rating) • Also focuses on per-minute statistics rather than per-game stats

  3. Influential People in Basketball Stats Dean Oliver • Dean Oliver popularized use of possession stats in early 1990s • John Hollinger brought stats to basketball fans in late 1990s through website • Created formula for widely used Player Efficiency Rating (PER) • Dean Oliver published basketball stats book Basketball On Paper in 2003 • John Hollinger published his basketball stats book Pro Basketball Forecast in 2002 • 2004 – Dean Oliver hired as full-time consultant for Seattle SuperSonics • First publicly acknowledged APBRmetrician to be employed by an NBA team full-time • Seattle won division title in 2005 led by Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis John Hollinger

  4. Most Common Measured Stats • GP, GS: Games played, Games started • MPG: Minutes per game • PTS: Points • FGM, FGA, FG% - Field goals made, field goals attempted, field goal percentage • FTM, FTA, FT% - Free throws made, free throws attempted, and free throw percentage • 3FGM, 3FGA, 3FG%: Three-point field goals made, attempted, and percentage • REB, OREB, DREB: Rebounds, Offensive rebounds, Defensive rebounds • AST: Assists • STL: Steals • BLK: Blocks • TO: turnovers • PF: Personal fouls • MIN: minutes • AST/TO: Assist to turnover ratio

  5. What NBA Stats Are Used For • Evaluate a player or team’s performance • Tool to help players and coaches improve • Trades/Drafts • Fantasy Basketball • “The Four Factors” that winning teams excel at as stated by mathematician Dean Oliver in his book Basketball on Paper, in order of importance: • Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) – Shooting percentage that factors in extra points scored on 3-pointers • Formula: (Field Goals + .5 (3-pt Field Goals)) / Field Goal Attempts • Turnover Percentage (TO%) – Turnovers a team commits per 100 possessions • Formula: (Turnovers * 100) / Possessions • Offensive Rebound Percentage (ORB%) – How often a team rebounds own missed shots • Formula: (Offensive Rebounds * 100) / (Field Goal Attempts – Field Goals) • Free Throw Rate (FT/FGA) – How well a team gets to the free throw line and makes it • Formula: Free Throws Made / Field Goals Attempted

  6. NBA’s Efficiency Rating • EFF: Efficiency • Composite basketball statistic that is derived from basic individual statistics • NBAs Efficiency Rating Formula: • (PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK − ((FGA − FGM) + (FTA − FTM) + TO))

  7. Player Efficiency Rating (PER) • Per – minute rating developed by ESPN.com columnist John Hollinger • Wrote book on NBA statistics – Pro Basketball Forecast • Meaningful in representing a player’s productivity • The Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a statistical measure used in the NBA to measure the efficiency of a player by taking into consideration all statistics kept by the NBA, and weighs the player's production by minutes played per game, and number of team possessions per game. • “PER sums up all a player's positive accomplishments, subtracts the negative accomplishments, and returns a per-minute rating of a player's performance” - Hollinger • PER of 15 is considered average across the entire league – serves as benchmark so any player can be quickly compared to another • Championship teams typically want to have two “star” players with high efficiency ratings above the low twenties • Unadjusted PER value (needs to adjusted for team pace) • uPER = (1 / MP) * [ 3P + (2/3) * AST + (2 - factor * (team_AST / team_FG)) * FG + (FT *0.5 * (1 + (1 - (team_AST / team_FG)) + (2/3) * (team_AST / team_FG))) - VOP * TOV - VOP * DRB% * (FGA - FG) - VOP * 0.44 * (0.44 + (0.56 * DRB%)) * (FTA - FT) + VOP * (1 - DRB%) * (TRB - ORB) + VOP * DRB% * ORB + VOP * STL + VOP * DRB% * BLK - PF * ((lg_FT / lg_PF) - 0.44 * (lg_FTA / lg_PF) * VOP)]

  8. Websites Dedicated to Basketball Stats • NBA Stats - http://stats.nba.com/?PlayerOrTeam=Player&StatCategory=Points • Can find shot charts, player tracking, graphs, and breakdowns into categories such as points, rebounds, assists, scoring, etc. • Hollinger Team Stats - http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats • Hollinger Player Stats - http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics • ESPN NBA Stats - http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics

  9. THE END

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