1 / 13

Technology, Innovation, and American Primacy

Technology, Innovation, and American Primacy. James A. Lewis Center for Strategic and International Studies February 20, 2007. Technological Leadership. Crucial for U.S. economic and military strength. Depends on U.S. capacity to innovate. Comparative advantage?

mkurtz
Download Presentation

Technology, Innovation, and American Primacy

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Technology, Innovation, and American Primacy James A. Lewis Center for Strategic and International Studies February 20, 2007

  2. Technological Leadership • Crucial for U.S. economic and military strength. • Depends on U.S. capacity to innovate. • Comparative advantage? • Globalization means that U.S. share of innovation will decline. • U.S. policies reinforce this decline. • Investment, immigration, technology transfer CSIS

  3. Questions for Technological Leadership • Is there a problem? • How can we tell? • What should we do about it? • And is the U.S. capable of doing it? CSIS

  4. 1. Is there a problem? • Another of the waves of angst that periodically sweep over the republic. • U.S. decline • Relative to past performance or some ideal. • New International Environment • Relative to other countries. CSIS

  5. New International Environment • Strategic Competition • Economic and technological competition. • Economic Integration • Diffusion of technology and research. • Transition to an information economy • Innovation / knowledge creation • Asia’s economic ascent • Asian nations hope to repeat their manufacturing success in scientific research. CSIS

  6. 2. How can we tell? • Historical analogies • Metrics • Education • Ph.Ds, engineers • Manufacturing • Macroeconomic Indicators • Trade deficit • Research related • Patents • R&D funding CSIS

  7. What Should We Do about it? • Laissez faire, enabling or directing? • The Keynesian myth • US relies more on market forces (enabling); EU and others are more directive. • Policy options: • Industrial policy, restrictive policies, hope, promotion of innovation • Promotion of innovation as the optimal policy response • New goods, services or productive techniques CSIS

  8. Elements of Innovation • Human Capital: • Research universities • Skill/resource clusters • Entrepreneurial culture • Knowledge Acquisition. • Research and Development/Information Technology • Technology transfers • Commercialization of new knowledge. • Venture Capital • Supporting Infrastructures. • ‘hard’ (transportation, electricity, communications) • ‘soft’ (legal system, financial system, regulatory framework) • Openness to competition. Elements of an Innovative economy

  9. U.S. Comparative Advantage • They don’t call ‘em BRICS for nothing.... • China • India • Russia • The sick man of Europe is Europe. • Return of the caudillo CSIS

  10. 4. Are we (still) capable? • Administrative/regulatory burden • DHS as an impediment to growth • Cultural change • A more risk-averse society • Ideological barriers • Underfund public goods • Overfund legacy programs / vested interests • U.S. economic transition • Services/intangible products provide greater value CSIS

  11. Transitional Dilemmas for the U.S. • Old assumptions about security do not mesh with a global economy. • Security implications • Global supply chain • Trusted systems • Social Implications • Distribution problems • Sustainability of a service economy • Post-industrial power CSIS

  12. Recommendations • Make the promotion of innovation a goal for policy • Maintain and exploit the U.S. comparative advantage. • Identify where government action is appropriate and effective. • Streamline and simplify the regulatory burden for innovation. • Make greater use of incentives. • Embrace international collaboration. CSIS

  13. Postscript • 1957-the President’s Science Advisor predicts that Soviet performance in math and science education will give it global leadership in a decade. • 1969 - the Departments of Treasury, Commerce and Agriculture warn the President that the European Union will displace the U.S. • 1976 - 1990, assorted pundits announce that Japan will dominate the global economy. • 2006 – China and India….. CSIS

More Related