Richard Tanter Nautilus Institute rtanter@nautilus

1. Suspects with form: Security implications of Australian and Indonesia nuclear developments for state and civil society Richard Tanter Nautilus Institute rtanter@nautilus.org

2. Suspects with form: outline • Return of the repressed • Nuclear power planning: • Australia • Indonesia • Nuclear weapons records and motivations: • Australia • Indonesia 4. Contexts, national, bilateral and global 5. Role of fantasy 6. States and civil society in de-escalation of fantasy and reality 7. Nautilus Institute programs: • Civil society nuclear early warning program • Re-framing Australia-Indonesia security relations

3. Hymans on Australian nuclear proliferation and identity Theory: degree of threat and capacity for self-help explains proliferation decisions, but only through variable of perception: i.e. shifting national identities History: • Menzies: “oppositional but not nationalist” [Tanter: = “oppositional niche imperial] • Gorton: “oppositional nationalist” • Whitlam: non-oppositional nationalist

4. Walsh on Australian proliferation explanations: bureaucratic politics • Problem: neither motivation nor capacity explain the key period: 1956 -1961 • Better candidates: perceptions of nuclear weapons, leadership shifts, and most importantly bureaucratic politics. • “a contest between two powerful coalitions”: • Pro: the military and the civilian nuclear establishment • Con: Dept of External Affairs and Treasury

5. Existing research reactors

6. Planned nuclear power reactor sites

7. Planned reactors, as of mid-2007

8. Gunung Muria peninsula sites

9. Tectonic zones and tsunami hazards ‘

10. Contamination map, based on Chernobyl model, Schlapfer, 1996

11. More serious study: An Analysis and Visualization of the Risk Associated with the Potential Failure of Indonesian Nuclear Reactors, John Taylor and Drew Whitehouse, ANU, 1998 http://sf.anu.edu.au/anusf_visualization/viz_showcase/john_taylor/