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Report of the Climate Monitoring Working Group

This report discusses the organizational issues faced by the Climate Monitoring Working Group in their first meeting under new terms of reference. It also highlights the need for prioritization and coordination in climate monitoring and addresses gaps and overlaps within NOAA's climate services.

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Report of the Climate Monitoring Working Group

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  1. Report of the Climate Monitoring Working Group Mark R. Abbott College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Oregon State University

  2. Organizational Issues • First meeting of CMWG under new Terms of Reference • Established ftp site at UCAR for WG reports, presentations • Presenters will submit materials one week before meeting so that WG members can review • Joint session with Climate and Global Change WG • Discussed NPOESS, CLASS, Climate program assessment, and uses of model data • Overall focus on climate monitoring and underlying services

  3. Climate Services at NOAA • 58 separate climate lines within NOAA • Elements often address components in isolation • Need for prioritization and coordination • Address gaps and overlaps • Focus on observations and data products generally leads to a requirements-driven process • Emphasis on technical details of implementation • For example, SST measurement accuracies • But these issues need to be considered within larger context

  4. An Example of the Observation Ecosystem Wind forcing (QuikSCAT) Dynamic Response Thermodynamics (TOPEX/Poseidon, (AVHRR, MODIS, Jason-1) TRMM MR, AMSR) Ocean productivity (MODIS)

  5. An End-to-End Approach • More than observations are required • But often we do not get beyond observation and instrument specifications • We often end up in arguments over requirements • Other issues to consider • Calibration and validation, focusing on the identification and quantification of biases and errors • Ongoing, coordinated data analyses • Modeling and data assimilation • Data systems, including archiving, distribution, and reprocessing • System enhancements and overlapping observations

  6. Past Approaches, Past Conflicts • Requirements-driven data products • Often cannot identify requirements a priori • Incomplete or inaccurate requirements • Conflicts arise depending on specific application • An SST example • Many methods can be used to measure SST from space • Accuracy and precision requirements for both climate and short-term forecasting may be identical • But may lack stability requirements • Sampling may introduce biases • Trying to meet multiple needs simultaneously may not fit with a requirements-driven process focusing on data products

  7. More Than Data Products • Focusing on data products may result in inadequate attention to other facets of climate services • Resolving conflicts regarding data products enmeshes us in the details of sensor systems, algorithms, etc. • An approach based on specific scientific question and policy needs provides an overarching context • Ensure end-to-end system meets service needs • Evaluate options and set priorities • Identify common issues

  8. Possible Framework Questions • CCSP short-term deliverables • Several issues, such as aerosol climate impacts, climate scenarios, etc. • Not yet articulated with level of specificity to design a program • What is the 3D structure of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere, how is it changing, and why? • Brings together disparate elements of NOAA program • Spawns many more questions on both global and regional scales • Links observations, analysis, modeling, and reprocessing

  9. Observation Needs • Use 2nd GCOS Adequacy Report as starting point to evaluate capabilities of observing system • Inadequacy of GUAN baseline network • Explore development of prototype “reference” sonde network • Sparse network with enhanced capabilities to profile water vapor and temperature • Could explore additional capabilities such as aerosols, cloud properties, and ozone • Integrate with new measurement capabilities such as GPS radio-occultation, etc. • Full implementation of ocean observing system, including ARGOS floats and repeat hydrographic lines • Assess opportunities for integration and coordination of existing ground networks, such as NOAA’s Coop, CRN, ASOS etc. and GAW and GSN, etc.

  10. Data System Needs • CLASS and data stewardship • Need to implement sufficient capacity for archiving of EOS, NPP, and NPOESS data sets • Need to evaluate impacts of new technologies such as XML on user access models • Must work closely with partners, such as NASA, and define roles and responsibilities • Reprocessing • Essential component for any climate service • Outside scope of CLASS and NPP systems • Closely linked with analysis • Must ensure that reprocessing capability is established and maintained

  11. Analysis/Modeling System Needs • Coordinated analyses • Systematic analyses of multiple data sets to ensure continuing quality of observing systems • Will require reorganization of data sets within archive • Select and support science teams to pursue critical analyses • Sentinel science teams an excellent start but need research/question approach in addition to product-centric approach • Modeling • OSE and OSSE activities • Outside scope of CLASS and NPP systems • Closely linked with analysis • Establish partnerships between observing design/operation and modeling/analysis • Archiving/distribution of model output as part of CLASS • Expand user services for modeling activities and output • NOAA cannot afford to design CLASS without inclusion of NOMADS type of model access

  12. Other Issues (1) • Overlapping and continuous coverage • Continuity and overlap requirements must be evaluated in context of specific climate research questions • Overlaps must be sufficient to ensure adequate calibration and consistency of long-term trends • NPOESS – launch on failure • Definition of “failure” may result in gaps in critical data sets • Some sensors on only one satellite in the constellation • Degradation of sensor vs. failure • Maintaining residual orbital assets may help alleviate • N’– replacement issue • NOAA N may need to operate longer than any previous POES mission • Worse if overlap requirement is considered

  13. Other Issues (2) • NPP sensors and algorithms • NPP schedule has launch in late 2006 • Overlap with EOS Terra becoming problematic • VIIRS remains high risk in terms of schedule • Possibility NPP could slip more to the right • Concerns remain on algorithms and sensor performance • VIIRS relies on one optical thickness for atmosphere, no accounting for glint or BRDF • Other sensors have similar issues • NPOESS SESS • Incomplete transmission of SESS EDRs to contractual documents • Proposed deletion of GPSOS in favor of additional SESS components

  14. Other Issues (3) • Partnerships • Need for enduring and open mechanisms for science input beyond present constellation of contractor and in-house teams • NPP orbital crossing time considerations might be an opportunity to broaden science engagement • GOES-R telecon on climate measurement opportunities • Need for linkages with NASA beyond NPP • Coordination of ground observing networks beyond NOAA

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