Report of the Climate Monitoring Working Group

1. Report of the Climate Monitoring Working Group Mark R. Abbott College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Oregon State University

2. Organizational Issues • First meeting of CMWG under new Terms of Reference • Established ftp site at UCAR for WG reports, presentations • Presenters will submit materials one week before meeting so that WG members can review • Joint session with Climate and Global Change WG • Discussed NPOESS, CLASS, Climate program assessment, and uses of model data • Overall focus on climate monitoring and underlying services

3. Climate Services at NOAA • 58 separate climate lines within NOAA • Elements often address components in isolation • Need for prioritization and coordination • Address gaps and overlaps • Focus on observations and data products generally leads to a requirements-driven process • Emphasis on technical details of implementation • For example, SST measurement accuracies • But these issues need to be considered within larger context

4. An Example of the Observation Ecosystem Wind forcing (QuikSCAT) Dynamic Response Thermodynamics (TOPEX/Poseidon, (AVHRR, MODIS, Jason-1) TRMM MR, AMSR) Ocean productivity (MODIS)

5. An End-to-End Approach • More than observations are required • But often we do not get beyond observation and instrument specifications • We often end up in arguments over requirements • Other issues to consider • Calibration and validation, focusing on the identification and quantification of biases and errors • Ongoing, coordinated data analyses • Modeling and data assimilation • Data systems, including archiving, distribution, and reprocessing • System enhancements and overlapping observations

6. Past Approaches, Past Conflicts • Requirements-driven data products • Often cannot identify requirements a priori • Incomplete or inaccurate requirements • Conflicts arise depending on specific application • An SST example • Many methods can be used to measure SST from space • Accuracy and precision requirements for both climate and short-term forecasting may be identical • But may lack stability requirements • Sampling may introduce biases • Trying to meet multiple needs simultaneously may not fit with a requirements-driven process focusing on data products

7. More Than Data Products • Focusing on data products may result in inadequate attention to other facets of climate services • Resolving conflicts regarding data products enmeshes us in the details of sensor systems, algorithms, etc. • An approach based on specific scientific question and policy needs provides an overarching context • Ensure end-to-end system meets service needs • Evaluate options and set priorities • Identify common issues

8. Possible Framework Questions • CCSP short-term deliverables • Several issues, such as aerosol climate impacts, climate scenarios, etc. • Not yet articulated with level of specificity to design a program • What is the 3D structure of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere, how is it changing, and why? • Brings together disparate elements of NOAA program • Spawns many more questions on both global and regional scales • Links observations, analysis, modeling, and reprocessing

9. Observation Needs • Use 2nd GCOS Adequacy Report as starting point to evaluate capabilities of observing system • Inadequacy of GUAN baseline network • Explore development of prototype “reference” sonde network • Sparse network with enhanced capabilities to profile water vapor and temperature • Could explore additional capabilities such as aerosols, cloud properties, and ozone • Integrate with new measurement capabilities such as GPS radio-occultation, etc. • Full implementation of ocean observing system, including ARGOS floats and repeat hydrographic lines • Assess opportunities for integration and coordination of existing ground networks, such as NOAA’s Coop, CRN, ASOS etc. and GAW and GSN, etc.

10. Data System Needs • CLASS and data stewardship • Need to implement sufficient capacity for archiving of EOS, NPP, and NPOESS data sets • Need to evaluate impacts of new technologies such as XML on user access models • Must work closely with partners, such as NASA, and define roles and responsibilities • Reprocessing • Essential component for any climate service • Outside scope of CLASS and NPP systems • Closely linked with analysis • Must ensure that reprocessing capability is established and maintained

11. Analysis/Modeling System Needs • Coordinated analyses • Systematic analyses of multiple data sets to ensure continuing quality of observing systems • Will require reorganization of data sets within archive • Select and support science teams to pursue critical analyses • Sentinel science teams an excellent start but need research/question approach in addition to product-centric approach • Modeling • OSE and OSSE activities • Outside scope of CLASS and NPP systems • Closely linked with analysis • Establish partnerships between observing design/operation and modeling/analysis • Archiving/distribution of model output as part of CLASS • Expand user services for modeling activities and output • NOAA cannot afford to design CLASS without inclusion of NOMADS type of model access

12. Other Issues (1) • Overlapping and continuous coverage • Continuity and overlap requirements must be evaluated in context of specific climate research questions • Overlaps must be sufficient to ensure adequate calibration and consistency of long-term trends • NPOESS – launch on failure • Definition of “failure” may result in gaps in critical data sets • Some sensors on only one satellite in the constellation • Degradation of sensor vs. failure • Maintaining residual orbital assets may help alleviate • N’– replacement issue • NOAA N may need to operate longer than any previous POES mission • Worse if overlap requirement is considered

13. Other Issues (2) • NPP sensors and algorithms • NPP schedule has launch in late 2006 • Overlap with EOS Terra becoming problematic • VIIRS remains high risk in terms of schedule • Possibility NPP could slip more to the right • Concerns remain on algorithms and sensor performance • VIIRS relies on one optical thickness for atmosphere, no accounting for glint or BRDF • Other sensors have similar issues • NPOESS SESS • Incomplete transmission of SESS EDRs to contractual documents • Proposed deletion of GPSOS in favor of additional SESS components

14. Other Issues (3) • Partnerships • Need for enduring and open mechanisms for science input beyond present constellation of contractor and in-house teams • NPP orbital crossing time considerations might be an opportunity to broaden science engagement • GOES-R telecon on climate measurement opportunities • Need for linkages with NASA beyond NPP • Coordination of ground observing networks beyond NOAA