EDEN

1. Emerging Diseases in a changing European eNvironmentJean-François Guéganon behalf of the Steering Committee EDEN The Impacts of Climate Change on Infectious Diseases, December 14-15, 2009, French Embassy, Washington D.C.

2. EC IP EDEN’ Call text • The aim is to identify, evaluate and catalogue European ecosystems and environmental conditions linked to global change, which can influence the spatial and temporal distribution and dynamics of pathogenic agents and their hosts • A coordinated European approach is needed to provide predictive emergence and spread models including global and regional prevention, early warning, surveillance, and monitoring tools and scenarios • Coordination with international organizations and third world countries is essential

3. EDEN integrated project • 24 countries, • 49 partners, • 80 scientific teams, • 120 field sites, • 60 PhD students, • 200 research years • 12.8 millions euros

4. 49 Vertical Disease Sub-Projects 24 Tick Borne RodentBorne Leishmania WestNile Malaria AfricaWNV-RVF Horizontal Integration Teams - grouped under WP6 - Data Management & Information Systems (WP6.1) Low Resolution Remote Sensing & Spatial Modelling (WP6.2) Tools and Scenarios - WP7 - High Resolution Remote Sensing & Environmental Change Monitoring (WP6.2) Mathematical Modelling & Disease Establishment and Spread (WP6.3) Biodiversity & Impact on Disease Spread (WP6.3) EDEN integrated project WP8 Training, Dissemination, Management & Coordination For each indicator disease, field studies are conducted to understand patterns and processes: WP1 – Landscapes/biotopes WP2 – Vectors WP3 – Public health WP4 – Animal hosts/reservoirs WP5 – Integrated data analysis

5. EDEN major field sites • 120+ field sites, • 170+ publications, • 3 websites: • EDEN • DMT (2-3K hits/month) • PhD (2-3K hits/day)

6. EDEN websitewww.eden-fp6project.net/

7. Impact of climate and other changesTick bioecology and tick-borne encephalitisCoordinator: Dr. S. Randolph, Oxford • Tick-virus interaction • Virus replication • No replication below a temperature • threshold • Replication rates increase with • temperature • Reduced efficacy within vector • barriers • Infection of gut cells • Leaky" gut: viruses pass directly in haemocoel • Infection of salivary glands • Increased proportion of vector • population able to transmit • Ixodes demographic traits • Temperature • Metabolic rate • Mortality rate • Life cycle duration • Population size • Blood-feeding rate • Distribution and survival rates • Humidity: dehydration and survival • rates • Precipitation • Presence / absence • Size and duration of breeding sites

8. Impact of climate and other changesTick bioecology and tick-borne encephalitisCoordinator: Dr. S. Randolph, Oxford Changes in tick distribution in northern and central Sweden. White dots: districts where ticks were found • Changes on vector and / or host • habitats • Shift caused by climate change: • ticks encountered at higher • altitudes and expanding habitat • northwards,. . . Gray et al., 2009. Effects of climate change on ticks and tick-borne diseases in Europe. Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases, doi:10.1155/2009/593232

9. Impact of climate and other changesTick bioecology and tick-borne encephalitisCoordinator: Dr. S. Randolph, Oxford Annual TBE incidence per 100,000 population in each county of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, 1970-2004 • Changes on vector and / or host • habitats • Shift caused by climate change: • ticks encountered at higher • altitudes and expanding habitat • northwards,. . . • . . . But also changes in land • cover and land use, possibly • caused by human activity. • Factors affecting contact and • disease transmission between • vector and humans • Socio-economic changes Sumilo D, Asokliene L, Bormane A, Vasilenko V, Golovljova I and Randolph SE, 2007. PLoS ONE, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0000500 2: e500.

10. Impact of climate and other changesTick bioecology and tick-borne encephalitisCoordinator: Dr. S. Randolph, Oxford • Changes on vector and / or host • habitats • Shift caused by climate change: • ticks encountered at higher • altitudes and expanding habitat • northwards,. . . • . . . But also changes in land • cover and land use, possibly • caused by human activity. • Factors affecting contact and • disease transmission between • vector and humans • Socio-economic changes • Occupational / recreational activities

11. EDEN findings TBE (1/4) From a Pan-European analysis it was concluded that observed patterns of climate change may be too similar within and between countries to provide the sole explanation for the extreme spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the marked upsurges in TBE incidence over the past two decades (Sumilo et al. 2007; Randolph, 2008). A nexus of interacting factors affecting both the risk of infection and exposure of humans to that risk, and each differing in force in space and time, may provide a more powerful model.

12. EDEN findings TBE (2/4) Extensive field studies and analyses conducted in an area of endemic TBE in northern Italy have confirmed the effect of a climatic indicator - the autumnal cooling rate – on TBE transmission to domestic goats (Rizzoli et al., 2007). The underlying bio-ecological mechanism is complex, with an interaction between autumnal, cold-induced diapause in immature tick stages, and co-feeding of immature and adult ticks on vertebrate hosts at the beginning of the next activity period. Substantial changes in vegetation structure (that improve habitat suitability for the main TBE reservoir hosts: small mammals), as well as an increase in roe deer abundance due to changes in land and wildlife management practices, are likely to be among the most crucial factors affecting the circulation potential of TBE virus and, consequently, the risk of TBE emergence in humans in Europe (Rizzoli et al., 2009).

13. EDEN findings TBE (3/4) Conceptual model and empirical evidence of causes of spatio-temporal heterogeneity in TBE epidemiology in Central and Eastern Europe. Sumilo D, Asokliene L, Bormane A, Vasilenko V, Golovljova I, Randolph S 2007. PloS ONE, 2: e500

14. EDEN findings in a nutshell A key outcome of EDEN is that many of currently observed changes in disease occurrence are driven by complex multifactorial causes and can often not simply be linked to a single cause, e.g. climate change. Socio-economic factors affecting behavior and contacts between hosts, vectors and pathogens often appear to be more important drivers of change than climatic factors. This complexity should not be overlooked in disease risk studies and public health policy making.

15. Thank you for your attention. . . and welcome to the International EDEN conference on emerging, vector-borne diseases in a changing European environment Montpellier 10-12 May, 2010 EDEN International Conference

16. The Impacts of Climate Change on Infectious Diseases, December 14-15, 2009, French Embassy, Washington D.C. Thanks to: • Jacques Drucker, Agathe Dumas, • Delphine Tessier, Marc Magaud and • the French Embassy’ staff for • inviting me to participe to this • workshop • IRD-CNRS-UM1-UM2, and EHESP • EDEN IP GOCE-CT-2003-010284 • and European Community • … for funding support • E-mail: guegan@ird.fr Come to Montpellier and visit us!