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National Integrated Assessment Modelling

This report presents the findings of the National Integrated Assessment Modelling (NIAM) project, which involves 16 countries, including those outside the EU27. The report focuses on emission projections for 2020 and highlights the need for more detailed data and comparisons using different modelling approaches. It also discusses new sources of interest, such as off-road and cement, and the targeting of ammonia and PM pollutants in new emission ceilings. Additionally, the report emphasizes the importance of longer-term projections to 2050, taking into account the impact of greenhouse gas/climate policies. Collaboration and suggestions are welcomed to address uncertainties in emission projections.

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National Integrated Assessment Modelling

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  1. National Integrated Assessment Modelling Report to TFEIP on NIAM meeting at IIASA 22 March 2010 and work related to emission projections

  2. Network of countries undertaking integrated assessment activities in parallel with IIASA • ~ 16 countries involved including countries outside EU27; established under UNECE CLRTAP • -some use adaptations of GAINS, others independent modelling, others in initial stages • Recent meeting held at IIASA 22 March 2010, with joint meeting with EC4MACS partners on 23rd

  3. Many countries have submitted national projections (energy, agriculture etc)to IIASA for a baseline scenario for 2020. Will be used for comparison with PRIMES 2009 scenario towards development of new emission ceilings -> scrutiny and comparisons of national emission projections using more detailed data and those based on GAINS New sources now of interest e.g. off-road, cement etc. Also ammonia and PM likely to be targeted in new ceilings- more differences for these pollutants, even including sources covered as well as magnitude

  4. New focus on longer term projections to 2050 • need to allow for effect of greenhouse gas/climate policies on emission of air quality pollutants • restructuring of energy sector and energy use beyond 2020 • NB New study reported by Finland at NIAM meeting; projections to 2050: emphasizes importance of future urban planning Helsinki and surroundings- will be investigating implications for air quality etc • Other countries in process of developing longer term scenarios.

  5. Shipping is an important source for some countries and one that is growing in volume over time MARPOL agreement -> reduction of SO2, but NOx emissions still increasing Study starting at University College London (Mark Barrett) re longer term projections for world shipping.

  6. Focus on urban air quality Modelled in more detail at national level than in GAINS for compliance with air quality limit values Concerns re modelling trends in urban NO2: NOx emissions from HGVs in urban areas Primary NO2 emissions Modelling re PM10, PM2.5 Problems of mass closure and missing sources- road abrasion, intermittent sources such as construction etc.; soil dust and natural sources. NB (Exhaust emissions very small contribution to road transport by 2020-> brakes and tyres)

  7. Addressing uncertainty: joint project Importance also recognised in EC4MACS-> meeting later this year at IIASA Currently assembling material on NIAM web site and relevant studies undertaken by member countries Will welcome collaboration from TFEIP and suggestions on how to address uncertainties in emission projections to 2020

  8. National Integrated Assessment Modelling Further information available on NIAM web-site : www.niam.scarp.se or contact Helen ApSimon: h.apsimon@imperial.ac.uk

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