1 / 41

Key Trends in 2008

Explore key trends in 2008: media fragmentation, evolving social media and marketing, the rise of internet video, integration vs. convergence in personal tech, emerging mobile media and globalization's importance.

mnewton
Download Presentation

Key Trends in 2008

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Key Trends in 2008 David Schatsky

  2. Key Trends in 2008 • Media Fragmentation Continues • Social Media & Marketing Evolve • Internet Video Arrives • Personal Technology: Integration vs. Convergence • Mobile Media & Marketing Emerge • Rising Importance of Globalization

  3. Media Fragmentation Continues Along Three Dimensions Audience Time Content

  4. Mass Audiences Are Dispersing Evening News Viewership, All Networks November 1980 to November 2006 Source: Nielsen Media Research, Ratings taken for month of November. (from stateofthemedia.org(

  5. Consumers Substituting Internet for Other Media Percentage of Online Users Saying Activity Declined Due to Online Time Question: Which of the following activities do you generally do less of because of your time spent online? (Select all that apply.) Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos-Insight Entertainment and Media Consumer Survey (9/06), n = 2,168; (9/05), n = 2,991; (9/04), n = 2,231; (9/03), n = 2,946 (overall online users, US only)

  6. Fragmentation Pronounced Among Younger Adults Median Cumulative Media Hours 34 30 33 30 35 37 43 Number of hours per week (self-reported) Question: On average, how many hours per week do you spend on each of the following activities? Source: Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Insight Entertainment and Media Consumer Survey (08/07), n =2772 (US only) n=321 (18-24), n=585 (25-34), n=618 (35-44), n=618 (45-54), n=629 (55+); JupiterResearch/Ipsos Insight Teen Survey (10/07), n = 2,208 (teens 13-17, US only)

  7. Media Companies Must Embrace Fragmentation, Reformat Their Products Internet Web Blog News site Today’s news Other news sites Search Story Individual site E-mail Mobile RSS Source: JupiterResearch (12/05)

  8. Key Trends in 2008 • Media Fragmentation Continues • Social Media & Marketing Evolve • Internet Video Arrives • Personal Technology: Integration vs. Convergence • Mobile Media & Marketing Emerge • Rising Importance of Globalization

  9. Rapid growth of engaged audience Community Word of mouth Consumer control Targeting Social intelligence Wisdom of crowds Social media as platform Widgets Marketers Experimenting broadly with social marketing Privacy concerns Social Media & Marketing Evolve

  10. Social Media Activity Rising at the Expense of “Traditional” Media Source: alexa.com

  11. Social Networking Taking off in Europe Too • 14% of Europeans visit social networks weekly or more frequently • More than 40% of those users visit daily • Networking sites generate the highest pages per visitor of any category Source: JupiterResearch Ipsos Consumer Survey (4/07), n = 3,760 (UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Netherlands only)

  12. Online Marketers Experimenting Broadly with Social Marketing Percentage of Advertisers, by Segment Question: What forms of online social marketing has your client company used in the past 12 months and which do you plan to use in the next 12 months? Source: JupiterResearch Social Marketing Executive Survey (2/07), n = 251 (advertisers, US only)

  13. Social Marketing & Media Issues • Is the trend durable? • How will social media sites monetize their franchise? • How can marketers tread the line between viral and loss of control? • How far can the privacy line be pushed?

  14. Key Trends in 2008 • Media Fragmentation Continues • Social Media & Marketing Evolve • Internet Video Arrives • Personal Technology: Integration vs. Convergence • Mobile Media & Marketing Emerge • Rising Importance of Globalization

  15. Enabled by broadband Large, growing audience Explosion of new content sources (UGV) New Intermediaries, technology platforms Rising advertiser interest Business models in flux Complementary, not cannibalistic, to TV (yet) The Internet Video Arrives

  16. Consumer Control Drives Interest in Internet Video Consumer Control Which of the following capabilities, if any, motivates (or would motivate) you to watch TV programs over the Internet? Percentage of Online Consumers Which of the following capabilities, if any, motivates (or would motivate) you to watch TV programs over the Internet? (Select all that apply) Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Insight Individual User Survey (6/07), n = 3,580 (US only)

  17. Video Viewing Online Grows Strongly Frequent use has doubled in 7 months Percentage of Broadband Users Question: On average, how frequently have you viewed or downloaded videos over the Internet (e.g. video clips posted by others, music videos, movies, TV shows, etc.) in the past three months? (Select one) Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Insight Consumer Survey (04/07), n = 1,162 (US broadband users only); JupiterResearch/Ipsos-Insight Individual User Survey (7/06), n = 2,283 (US broadband users only)

  18. Focus on Viral, Search to Boost Overall Audience Percentage of Online Video Viewers Question: How do you usually find out about the video programs you watch on the Internet? (Select all that apply.) Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Insight Individual User Survey (6/07), n = 2,079 (US online video viewers only)

  19. Broadband Creates More Fragmentation than Disintermediation PC Broadband Audience Intermediaries Media/Content Search engines Online portals Social/video networks iTunes, Amazon, stores BSP portals Blogs, IM, person-to-person Direct Source: JupiterResearch (12/06)

  20. Consumer-Created Video Sites Share Revenues in All Directions Advertiser • 20% of ad revenue driven by the affiliate, off the top • CPM • Cost-per-click $ Audience Affiliate $ Consumer-created video aggregator/ destination Content creator $ • 40%-50% ad revenue split to creator (after affiliate payment) • Purchase/license ($400-$2,000+/video) • Flat fee based on audience ($X/1,000) $ • Traffic/commitment-based • P2P delivery helps control Infrastructure/ hosting CDN Source: JupiterResearch (4/07); CCV Aggregator Web sites, press coverage

  21. Rich Media and Video Formats Dominate Future Growth (in billions) US Online Display Ad Spending by Type Source: JupiterResearch Internet Advertising Model, 6/07 (US only)

  22. Key Trends in 2008 • Media Fragmentation Continues • Social Media & Marketing Evolve • Internet Video Arrives • Personal Technology: Integration vs. Convergence • Mobile Media & Marketing Emerge • Rising Importance of Globalization

  23. The PC Is Evolving From Productivity Tool to Integrated Entertainment Platform For Other Devices and Services Source: JupiterResearch (6/07)

  24. Context Will Determine Which Mobile Devices Consumers Carry and Use Take with you: Sometimes Always Source: JupiterResearch (1/05)

  25. Preference For a Single Device Creates Demand For Converged Devices Percentage of Online Consumers Willing to Carry a Mobile Device and Use It Question: For your favorite portable device functions chosen in the previous question, what kind of device(s) are you most likely to purchase and use? (Select one.) Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos-Insight Entertainment Technologies Consumer Survey (7/04), n = 2,133 JupiterResearch/Ipsos Insight Consumer Survey (6/07), n = 2,322 (US only)

  26. New Handsets Further Blur Line Between Personal, Business Use and Demand Integration Home Work Next Gen Smartphones Work e-mail File transfer/ display Mobile Work Web E-mail Telephony Personal Web Communication Media Source: JupiterResearch (9/07)

  27. Key Trends in 2008 • Media Fragmentation Continues • Social Media & Marketing Evolve • Internet Video Arrives • Personal Technology: Integration vs. Convergence • Mobile Media & Marketing Emerge • Rising Importance of Globalization

  28. Mobile handsets ubiquitous, more powerful High-speed networks spreading Data services adoption rising Carriers want to raise ARPU Media company mobile strategies Paid infotainment growing 21% annually 20% of online advertisers doing mobile Mobile marketing (SMS) spending at $2.9 B in 2011 Mobile browsing is still niche Mobile display advertising at $224M in 2011 Mobile Marketing & Media

  29. Technology Advances Changing Landscape for Portable Devices Entertainment Productivity Nokia N95 iPhone Pearl • Push Email • MS Apps • Browser • Camera • Wi-Fi • GPS • Safari browser • Camera • Video Camera • 1GB-8GB • Media player • Maps • Bluetooth • Widgets

  30. Mobile Penetration is Beyond Mainstream (in millions) Total Number of Wireless Subscribers 207 233 243 251 258 263 268 273 US Wireless Subscribers Percentage of US Population Source: JupiterResearch Wireless Model, 8/07 (US)

  31. Flat Rate Pricing on SMS Is Driving Rapid Growth (in billions) US SMS Revenue Percentage of US Mobile Subscribers Note: Penetration reflects monthly use or more frequently Source: JupiterResearch Wireless Model, 8/07 (US)

  32. Broadband Was Basically a Fixed Access Technology in 2001 • Home Broadband • Ethernet (tethered) • 300+ kbps • Closed • 802.11 • 100 meter range • 10Mbps • Open • Cellular • Ubiquitous • 10kbps to 50kbps • Closed

  33. Broadband Attaining Ubiquity • Home Broadband • Ethernet (tethered) • 6-15Mbps • Closed (Mostly) • 802.11 • 100 meter range • 100 Mbps • Open • Cellular • Ubiquitous • Up to 14Mbps • Closed • WiMax • Regional • Up to 70Mbps • Open? Closed? • Muni Wi-Fi • City • Up to 11Mbps • Open/Closed Broadcast TV

  34. Wildcards Could Change the Industry Dramatically Openness Apple sells ring tones Ubiquitous IP Cloud Starbuck’s offers access Google subsidizes access? Fixed line telephone goes away in all IP world? Google buys spectrum?

  35. But Mobile Media Consumption Remains Niche Teens Adults Percentage of Cell Phone Owners Question: During the past six months, which of the following activities did you do at least once on a cell phone? (Select all that apply.) Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos-Insight Teen Survey (11/05), n = 1,438 (online teen cell phone owners/users ages 13 to 17, US only); JupiterResearch/Ipsos-Insight Teen Survey (11/06), n = 1,439 (online teen cell phone owners/users ages 13 to 17, US only); JupiterResearch/Ipsos-Insight Consumer Survey (1/06), n = 1,945 (adult online cell phone owners/users, US only); JupiterResearch/Ipsos-Insight Wireless Consumer Survey (2/07), n = 1,939 (adult online cell phone owners/users, US only)

  36. Advertising Opportunities Lie in Movies, Live TV, Clips, Among Younger Adults Percentage of Online Consumers Note: Partial results shown. Question: Which of the following would you be interested in doing on a cell phone? (Select all that apply.) Source: JupiterResearch/Ipsos Insight Consumer Survey (6/07), n = 596 (US)

  37. Key Trends in 2008 • Media Fragmentation Continues • Social Media & Marketing Evolve • Internet Video Arrives • Personal Technology: Integration vs. Convergence • Mobile Media & Marketing Emerge • Rising Importance of Globalization

  38. Nearly One-quarter of Worldwide Population Online by 2011 (in millions) Online Population Percentage of Total Population Source: JupiterResearch Worldwide Internet Population Model, 5/07

  39. Emerging Economies Lead Future Online Growth Netherlands World averages in 2011 US Singapore Norway UK Sweden Japan France Israel Canada Germany Italy Online Penetration in 2011 UAE Bulgaria Romania Czech Republic Australia Russia Saudi Arabia Chile China Philippines Argentina Mexico South Africa Brazil India Egypt Indonesia CAGR of Online Population (2006 to 2011) Note: Not all countries are included. Size of bubble indicates relative size of the online population in 2011. Source: JupiterResearch Worldwide Internet Population Model, 5/07

  40. Key Trends in 2008 – To Recap • Media Fragmentation Continues • Social Media & Marketing Evolve • Internet Video Arrives • Personal Technology: Integration vs. Convergence • Mobile Media & Marketing Emerge • Rising Importance of Globalization

  41. Thank you. Dschatsky@jupiterresearch.com

More Related