“Civilization exists by geological consent . . .

1. “Civilization exists by geological consent . . . subject to change without notice!” Will Durant, 1926

2. San Francisco BayThrough Time Jere H. Lipps, UCMP Berkeley

3. San Francisco Bay Largest estuarywest Americas.300+ sq mi Ave. depth=18 ft Drains much ofCalifornia. 7 million peoplelive in area. Large industrialbase.

4. San Francisco Bay & DeltaA very shallow, ephemeral estuary

5. Drainage to SF Bay & Delta~152,000 km2.40% of California.Mean annual flow = 600 m3/sec.Sediment = 4.2 X 106tons/year

6. Human Impacts (years ago) • 13,000: Arrival by sea and/or land • 8,000: Began harvesting the new bay • 2-3000: Built shell mounds • 250: Europeans arrived; Native Americans declined • 160: California won from Mexico, Gold Rush • 135: Bay filling began • 100: Industrialization and development began in earnest > 100: Industrial global warming

7. Subject to: Sea level changes. Earthquakes. Devastating fires. Population increase. Pollution. Invasions.

8. History Matters! Conservation, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology as Historical Sciences

9. What We Can Control • Radioactivity • Destruction of Habitats • Chemical Pollution • Genetic Depletion • Climate Change

10. What We Cannot Control • Plate Tectonics • Sedimentation* • Global Climate Change* • Glacial Melting • Sea Level Changes • Natural Changes in Geology & Biology*

11. What’s the Problem? Nature Us

12. California: Always Changing From Hall 2005

13. Climate: Always Changing High Latitude Temperature Changes Inferred from Deep Sea Isotopic Records Zachos et al. 2001 Temp C: 0 4 8 12

14. How Do We Know? Oxygen isotopes of ice or microfossils • 16O, 17O and 18O • 8 protons • 8, 9 and 10 neutrons = different masses • Each behaves differently • Warmer water = more 18O • More ice = more 18O • d18O

15. Earth to Sun Relationship: Orbit, Tilt, Equinoxes Interglacials Glacials

16. Climate/Sea Level Curve for the Past 500,000 Years SF Bay = 7X p.s.l. No SF Bay 10 100 200 300 400 500 years X 1000

17. Mostly, SF Bay was a river valley

18. Glacial Earth

20. What is Global Warming? • Certain gases in atmosphere trap heat, like in a Greenhouse. • CO2, CO, CH4, NO, & others. • Contributed by volcanoes, some other sources, and now human activities. • Nature can’t remove it fast enough. • Atmosphere & ocean linked. Both warm, not necessarily smoothly. • Venus & Mars are Greenhouse planets.

21. Greenhouse Gases • Water Vapor H2O • Carbon dioxide CO2 • Methane CH4 • Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs) • Ozone O3 • Nitrous oxide NO

22. The Carbon Cycle • An atmosphere - terrestrial biosphere loop. • A terrestrial biosphere- geosphere-hydrosphere loop. • An atmosphere-geosphere- hydrosphere loop.

24. Temperature & CO2 VariationsLast 420,000 years

25. Temperature & CO2 VariationsLast 18,000 years

26. Temperature & CO2 VariationsLast 50 years

27. Greenhouse Changes

28. Natural & Human Climate Change

29. Courtesy of Ken Towe

30. Greenhouse Effects • Increasing CO2 • Increasing H2O: Flooding • Increasing El Nino events • Increasing temperature: 8-12OC • Sea level rising: Up to 8+ m • Increased hurricane & tornado occurrence/intensity • Redistribution of crops & species • Increasing diseases • Major changes in oceans & biotas

31. Patagonia: Always ChangingGlacial Retreat 80 m since 2000; more to come in next 30 years

32. San Francisco: Sea Level Rise

33. Potential Sea Level Rise East Antarctica 26,039,200km3 64.80m West Antarctica 3,262,000km3 8.06m Antarctic Peninsula 227,100km3 .46m Greenland 2,620,000km3 6.55m All other ice 180,000km3 .45m TOTALS: 32,328,000km3 80.32m

36. When? 1000’s of years: Natural variations. 100’s of years: Human effects. 10’s of years: Sudden release of CH4 clathrates, Catastrophic collapse of ice sheets.

37. and inferred forthe future. ~8 msea level rise.

38. Road Damage: 1.5 m Rise Pacific Institute

39. Fire Hazard Will Increase

40. History Fire is a natural part of the East Bay environment Major fires have occurred every 10 to 15 years in the East Bay hills 1923: 130 acres , 584 homes 1931: 1,800 acres, 5 homes 1933: 1,000 acres, 5 homes 1937: 700 acres 1946: 1,000 acres 1960: 1,200 acres, 2 homes 1970: 204 acres , 37 homes 1980: 2 acres, 5 homes 1990: 200 acres 1991: 1,700 acres, 3,400 homes, 25 died 1995: 3 homes 2002: 5 acres East Bay Fires

41. The 1923 Berkeley Fire Destroyed 584 Homes in 2 HOURS

42. Oakland Hills Firefrom space NASA

43. Losses 1991 Oakland Hills Fire • 25 Dead • 150 Injured • 3,471 Homes Lost • 1,520 Acres Burned • Largest Fire Loss in the history of the nation up to that time - $2.2 billion • Economic Loss: 15-20% businessfailure in nearby retail, citywideunknown

44. 1910 2003 Tilden Park Source: Jean Quan

45. Living in the HillsEach arrow = house Source: Jean Quan

46. San AndreasFault System>60% chanceof a 6.7 quake in next 30 years in Bay Area

47. Ten Greatest Quakes

48. A Few California Quakes • San Francisco 1906 8.25 • Calaveras fault 1911 6.5 • Imperial Valley 1940 7.1 • Kern County 1952 7.7 • San Fernando 1971 6.5 • Coalinga 1983 6.5 • Loma Prieta 1989 7.1 • Northridge 1994 6.7 • Parkfield 2004 7.0

50. Oak KnollHospital 1971