Field of Dreams: If We ReBuild IT, Will They Come Back?

1. Dennis F. Galletta University of Pittsburgh and President of AIS Field of Dreams:If We ReBuild IT, Will They Come Back?

2. Agenda • Scope of the talk • AIS-mission and current status • Studies showing the enrollment problem • Studies examining causes of the downturn • Various efforts to find a solution • What AIS is doing about it

3. Scope of the Talk • We will focus most closely on North America. Why? • It has most of the published data • Lessons learned their could be useful world-wide, sharply reducing this problem for other regions • We will also focus on what AIS is, and then what it is doing

4. AIS-Mission and current status

5. The AIS Mission Statement To advance knowledge in the use of information technology to improve organizational performance and individual quality of work life. Council Orientation

6. AIS Membership Trends Council Orientation

7. AIS Membership - Sept 2007-Sept 2006 • Academic 2,532 2,223 • Student 1,102 946 • Professional 110 80 • Retired Academic 2417 Total: 3,768 3,266

8. AIS Membership - Sept 2007 – Sept 2006(continued) • Region One 2,369 62.9% 1,939 59.4% Region Two 742 19.7% 683 21.0% • Region Three 65717.4% 644 19.8% Total 3,7683,266 • Countries 81 • Non Rich Academic 106 • Non Rich Student 45

9. United States 1,944 China 213 Australia 151 Canada 136 United Kingdom 98 Germany 89 Sweden 71 Taiwan 63 Japan 55 Korea 51 Total Top Ten 2,871 Top 10 MembershipNumbers by Country 2006 (as of Nov. 2006) 2007 (As of May 2007) • United States 2,145 • Australia 217 • United Kingdom 167 • Canada 159 • Germany 98 • India 93 • China90 • Sweden 88 • Taiwan 78 • Korea 67 Total Top Ten 3,202

10. AAIS - Australia and New Zealand AIS Maroc - Morocco AIS Pakistan AIS Slovenia BENAIS – Benelux Chinese Speaking Chapter (Global) CNAIS - China EAIS – Egypt HKAIS – Hong Kong HeAIS – Greece IAIS - Ireland ILAIS - Israel ITAIS - Italy IRIS - Scandinavian JPAIS - Japan KrAIS – Korea LACAIS - Latin America and Caribbean MWAIS - Midwest NAIS - Japan (Nippon) PeruAIS – Peru PLAIS - Poland SAIS - Southern USA AIS Chapters

11. What Can Affect our Membership Numbers? • Providing value to members is one key • But a healthy field is another • Our enrollment problems are a threat to AIS

12. The enrollment problem

13. Several Years Ago • There was money everywhere • There were plenty of students who were studying IT

14. Little Hard Data • Dick, et al., 2007 (AMCIS) report that enrollment declines of 70% and more are not uncommon. • George, et al., 2005 (CAIS) report sharp (not gentle) 25-75% drops • U of Va reported shutting down the MSIS program and replacing it with executive program • Many schools want to keep the numbers confidential

15. (175) Internet boom Mainframe/ minicomputer Client/server Source: One School in Texas

16. Another School in Texas – North Texas State Source: Becker, Hassan, Naumann, 2006

17. Florida State University Source: George et al., 2006

18. Doctoral Students Entering the Work Force World-Wide Source: Becker, Hassan, Naumann, 2006

19. Impact in Times of Fast Shrinkage Fast Growth • Shrinking departments • “Tenure not available” for some faculty • PhD graduates: placement trouble • Shrinking PhD programs • Eventually takes a toll on research • Tenured faculty let go (tenure is NOT a guarantee after all) • Employers are upset to find no students • Inadequate departments • Tenured faculty not available – teaching overloads • Departments have trouble hiring • Lag in growth for PhD programs • Also takes a toll on research • Many tenured faculty gone; limits on PhD students admitted • Excessive rebounding—hard to place BS & MBAs

20. So Stability Would be nice…

21. (175) NOT THIS! Internet boom Mainframe/ minicomputer Client/server One School in Texas

22. What Has Been Studied • Causes of the downturn • Strategies for increasing enrollments

23. Causes of the Downturn • Ten “megatrends” (Becker et al., 2006) accentuate natural (perhaps uncontrollable) fluctuations • General employment statistics • Baby boomer population bubble • Demand/supply of IS/IT faculty • Bureau of Labor Statistics 10-year hiring forecasts • Increase in number of IT programs/PhD programs • Dot-com and Y2K growth 1993-2001 • Salary increases and demand for on-shore employees • Supply and price of offshore labor • AACSB requirements and pressures

24. Other Cited Causes of the Downturn • The upturn (George et al., 2006) • Caused by ERP, Y2K, Internet • Misunderstandings of the field (Konana, 2005) • 9/11 attacks (Koch & Kayworth 2007) • Interest (Akbulut & Looney 2007) • Less confidence (Akbulut & Looney 2007) • Outcome expectations (Akbulut & Looney 2007)

25. Sample Student Comments • “There is this huge scare about MIS jobs being outsourced. My mother is always telling me this. The media also presents this point of view.” • “There is too much outsourcing in the IT field. This makes majoring in MIS a risk.” • “I know the economy is picking up, however we all remember 2000 and everyone is scared about MIS because of that. I have several friends … many of them were unemployed for 6-12 months during the recession.” • “I think people don't choose MIS because they think it involves programming computers and they don't want to do it.” • “From what I have heard from peers that have entered into the industry as MIS majors, they get stuck programming and doing Computer Science type stuff instead of business related things.” • “…. I don’t want to be left without a job when I am in 40s..” Source: Konana2005

26. Myths (Microsoft, 2007) • Myth: • All computing jobs are being outsourced offshore • Facts: • US figures show growth in jobs • 1 out of 4 jobs by 2014 • Wages are 86% more than average US private sector

27. Myth: • Computing is all about programming • Fact: • Use of computers is ubiquitous in modern life • Broad range of interesting fields • Joint degree programs—links with computing

28. Myth: • Degree in computing & IT has less value than before tech boom • Fact: • Significantly higher than many fields • Mechanical engineering $54,600 • Computer science $51,700 • Accounting $46,500 • Economics $47,900 • Liberal arts $32,500

30. Myth: • Computing is just for men • Fact: • Pervasive in society • Taulbee report shows increase in female faculty/postdoctoral students in US

31. Myth: the Nerd Factor • Geeks, pocket protectors, isolated cubicles, staring into screen writing computer code • Fact: • Collaborative, team-oriented world • Good communication skills are key to success • IT has become the language of business

32. From AMCIS Panel • Three main reasons not majoring in IS • No jobs • Parents said no • Too hard

33. More Potential Causes – My musings • Nicholas Carr? • Intense MBA competition: population down a bit and number of schools very sharply increased • Pool is smaller even if we maintain proportion of MBAs • Inflated expectations?

34. Information Overload—How do we address this complex issue? • The more we study, the more causes we can find • Difficult to enumerate, categorize, condense • It is not clear how to weigh the causes • Many have turned to strategies for increasing enrollments

35. Strategies for Increasing Enrollments • Busting myths (thanks, Microsoft!) • Curriculum efforts for majors • New courses for non-majors • Scholarships • Marketing efforts • Industry impacts (salaries, efforts)

36. Curriculum Efforts for Majors • Who is working on these? • AIS with ACM (2002 undergraduate; 2000 graduate) • Now new MSIS 2006 (Gorgone et al., 2006) (graduate) • ISACA (2004)

37. Suggested classes for UG-IM Minor Focus: Business Analysis & Solutions MIS 32X – Data Manipulation and Analysis MIS 373.x – Business process analysis and improvement MIS 373.x – Business intelligence MIS 375 – Strategic IT Management Current classes for UG-IM Minor Focus: Application development MIS 304 – Introduction to Programming MIS 325 – Introduction to database management MIS 333k – Advanced application development And one of the following MIS 365 – Data communications and networks MIS 374 – Systems Analysis & Design One Curriculum Change Source: Konana2005

38. New Background Needed • Industry experience • Business process management • Project management • Communication skills • Relationship management • Integration skills Source: AMCIS 2007 panel

39. Rick Watson’s View • We don’t know our story • “Bumper sticker” needed Source: AMCIS 2007 panel

40. New Courses for Non-Majors • Offer a minor! • Courses with likely intense interest: • Wireless networks • Hacking • Computer forensics • Business process management • Any “Chocolate” courses • Digital media • Personal productivity

41. Marketing: Results of Arizona Brainstorming • Educate high school/undergraduate students • Videos • Word of mouth • Wikis/blogs • Personal emails • Better web sites • Improve, update course titles and content • Provide executive summaries of courses

42. Marketing: Results of Arizona Brainstorming • Involve multiple entities • Undergraduate clubs • Have employed or internship alumni speakers • Use current students • Use proactive, educated advisors

43. Marketing: Results of Arizona Brainstorming • Broadening understanding of IT • Multiple uses of IT • Creativity is part of IT • Emotional issues • Make first contact with IT positive • Put best teachers in core (required) course • Faculty should “advertise” future courses • Make the courses consistent

44. Marketing: Results of Arizona Brainstorming • The message itself: • Provide clear “What is IS?” message • Provide compensation details • Obtain multiple executive industry partners • Provide placement information • Provide facts vs myths • Explain the diverse role of MIS • Explain how MIS differs from CS and Info Science

45. Marketing: Results of Arizona Brainstorming • Involve multiple entities • Undergraduate clubs • Have employed or internship alumni speakers • Use current students • Use proactive, educated advisors • Get media to cover skills shortfall

46. Marketing: Results of Arizona Brainstorming • Keep students interested • Freshman seminars • CIO-Student Interaction Forums • Speed Networking Games • Chocolate Courses • Show Cool Stuff • Make IT Fun • Expose them to software

47. Other Approaches

48. From AMCIS 2007 Panel • “Bus car” • Article in student newspaper • T-Shirt (5 reasons to be an IS major) • Orientation to tell majors how smart they are • Mixer (rewards for recruiting 2 students) • Trip to China (created lots of excitement) • Slogan (Launch, Fly, Soar) • Former students invited with prospective ones

49. From AMCIS 2007 Panel • Facebook • Publicity (local newspaper) • “Labor crisis solved by students” • Baylor students designed T-shirt • They were in charge completely • SIM-Posium • Microsoft-SIM-IBM event • Jack Becker: Faculty must get involved in marketing! • Send birthday congratulations • Make the entry level course exciting

50. Abkulut & Looney • Hypothesized three antecedents to choice goals: • Self-efficacy (ability) • Interest • Outcome expectations (jobs/salary) • Results were interesting (PLS model) • Only interest predicted choice goals directly • And interest was itself (r2=.32) predicted by • Self-efficacy • Outcome expectations