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Great Transition Initiative

Great Transition Initiative. Visions and Pathways for a Hopeful Future. Perspectives. Great Transition Initiative. A global network for elaborating visions and strategies for a future of enriched lives, human solidarity, and a healthy planet. Planetary Phase of Civilization.

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Great Transition Initiative

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  1. Great Transition Initiative Visions and Pathways for a Hopeful Future

  2. Perspectives Great Transition Initiative A global network for elaborating visions and strategies for a future of enriched lives, human solidarity, and a healthy planet. Planetary Phase of Civilization …binding the world’s people and biosphere into one global system with one destiny... Some form of planetary society is taking shape... …but the outcome is uncertain and contested. Human Choice The future is not somewhere we’re going, it’s something we are creating… …a Great Transition –– a future of enriched lives, human solidarity and a healthy planet –– is still possible. …but, to create a world we must first be able to imagine it… Global Citizens Movement …a global citizens movement must be rooted in a shared vision… …and a politics of trust that tolerates differences on the path to our common future. …civil society’s energy and diversity are key, but fragmentation is a liability… The transition requires the combined efforts of many actors…

  3. The Big Picture A long view reveals two macro-transformations in human history... Planetary Phase c. 100 years ? We are now in the midst of a third transition... Modern Era c. 1,000 years Complexity Early Civilization c. 10,000 years Stone Age c. 100,000 years 20,000 10,000 0 Years Before Present

  4. Planetary Phase Note logarithmic scale Accelerated Change Historical transitions are speeding up…. Modern Era Early Civilization Stone Age 105 104103 102 Years Before Present

  5. Planetary Transition • The defining feature of the planetary phase is increasing global connectivity… • Global environmental change • Information technology • Collapse of USSR, hegemony of capitalism Global Connectivity • Economic globalization, WTO, multinationals • Earth Summit, NGOs as a “third force” • Earth Charter, World Social Forum • Fundamentalist reaction, Great Power counter-reaction Take-off 1980 - 1950 2000 2050

  6. Out of the turbulence of global change, very different scenarios can emerge… Branch Points Branch Points

  7. Conventional Worlds Great Transitions Barbarization GTI’s Focus A highly localist vision that is a strong theme within the anti-globalization movement An authoritarian response to global threats –– elites retreat to protected enclaves Powerful global actors advance the priority of economic growth market forces fortress world eco-communalism ..validates global solidarity, cultural cross-fertilization and economic connectedness.. Comprehensive government initiatives seek to attain social and environmental goals Seeks to change the character of global civilization rather than retreat into localism… Conflicts and crises spiral out of control and institutions collapse ..in quest of a humanistic, ecological and liberatory transition policy reform breakdown new sustainability Global Scenarios Variations…. • Globalization evolves gradually • Dominant values spread • Developing countries converge toward rich-country patterns of development • Social, environmental and economic instability amplify • General global crises strike • Civilized norms erode • New values and institutions ascend • Human solidarity strengthens • Deep respect for nature becomes norm

  8. Risky Bequest • Market Forces could succumb to its internal contradictions…

  9. Xenophobia Resentment Conflict Inequity Environment Barbarization • If market adaptations are not sufficient… • …a Fortress World could consolidate… • …a tragic negation of hopes for a better world

  10. 1 billion 30 1 Major Conflicts Social Equity Hunger 1980 2020 2060 1980 2020 2060 1980 2020 2060 Climate Ecosystems Water 550 4.5 billion 5 billion CO2(ppm) People in stress Forests (ha) 300 2060 3 2060 2060 1980 2020 1980 2020 1980 2020 Bending the Curve • Sustainability requires sharply bending these curves… • But the trends are perilous… • In the 20th Century, those hopes were crystallized in four great aspirations for global society… Development Freedom Peace Environmental Health

  11. Limits of the Reform Path • Policy Reform would takes up this challenge. But is it enough? Policy Reform is a big “if”… It is feasible, in principle – the necessary technologies and policies are available But daunting, in practice – gradually bending highly unsustainable trends imposes immense technological and policy challenges The critical uncertainty remains – where wouldthepolitical will come from? And is it a desirable vision of the future? Or might it lead to a well-engineered global mall, rather than a place of human fulfillment? The redefinition of the meaning of “the good life” is fundamental to a Great Transition…

  12. New Sustainability Paradigm A values-led vision that prioritizes • Quality of life • …not just the quantity of things • Human solidarity • …from local to global levels • Ecological sensibility • …humanity as part of the wider community of life A pluralistic scenario • …diverse forms of regional development, building on local resources and traditions

  13. Population Technology Economy Governance Knowledge and Understanding Values and Needs Power Structure Culture Proximate and Ultimate Drivers Conventional strategies operate on the proximate levers that directly influence… Great Transition strategies go to the ultimate drivers that shape society and the human experience…

  14. consumption well-being rich throughput poor poverty spring dematerialization wedge equity clamp lifestyle wedge dematerialization wedge Tools for Transitions Well-being, level of consumption, and resource flows are correlated… Gap between rich and poor widens … Market Forces Consumption de-coupled from throughput through better technology… Poverty-reduction programs bring up the bottom… Policy Reform Rooted in building more equitable social relations… Consumption and well-being de-coupled… Great Transition

  15. …rely on renewable resources, industrial ecology … counter consumerism, individualism, domination of nature …stabilize populations and create sustainable communities …build stakeholder partnerships at all levels Values Knowledge Social Economic Governance Technology Demographic …make the economy a means of serving people and preserving nature …ensure rights, eradicate poverty, celebrate diversity …highlight systemic approaches Dimensions of Transition • A Great Transition would involve changes in all aspects of culture…

  16. Intergovernmental organizations Will the political will emerge? Transnational corporations Will corporations become responsible global citizens? Will civil society overcome fragmentation and begin to unify around a common vision? An aware and engaged public The answers depend on the quality of awareness and engagement of the citizens of the world… …there will be no Great Transition without a Global Citizens Movement for one. Civil society Change Agents in a Great Transition

  17. Which worlddo we want? • The core question that inspires our work…

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