Great Lakes Energy Water Nexus Initiative

1. Great Lakes Energy Water Nexus Initiative Meeting at Wingspread January 24-25, 2011 Racine, Wisconsin GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

2. Project Objectives, Workplan and Accomplishments GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

3. “The value of this project is to advance integration of energy and water resource decision-making and inform next generation energy development and deployment that better reflects the impacts of power generation on the Great Lakes ecosystem” GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

4. Goals • Arm regulators and the energy industry with new information to improve their ability to assess and measure current and potential future impacts from different energy mixes • Enable regulators to target specific decision points, either in the planning or operations phases, that achieve specific public policy goals GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

5. Assumptions • Modeling effort will show potential environmental gains from integrated resource planning • Integration of aquatic resource factors into energy planning decisions will reduce the environmental impacts from the energy sector • Outreach showcasing the products of this planning phase will engender interest by the target audiences. GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

6. Assumptions, cont’d • Existing models can be easily modified to develop a Great Lakes model. • Data are easy to obtain for the model and maps. • Project will influence behavior and result in positive ecological outcomes. GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

7. GLEW Focus: Water Use Impacts from the Electric Power Sector GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

8. Why? • Smarter energy planning • Identify new conservation opportunities for the power sector • Better Protection of Great Lakes water resources • Energy mixes that minimize aquatic resource impairments to the Great Lakes basin from the power sector • Comply with the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact and Agreement • water conservation • assess cumulative impacts of water withdrawals GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

9. Where? The Watershed GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

10. Where? The Energy ShedElectricity Market Module Regions GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

11. Who will use the information/products we develop? • Regulators • state energy and environmental managers and regulators • relevant federal agencies (e.g., Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) • Industry • energy utilities • system operators • independent power producers GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

12. What are we going to do?(Deliverables) • Great Lakes Energy and Aquatic Resources Nexus Maps • Great Lakes Energy and Aquatic Resources Nexus Model • Report on the Regional Energy and Aquatic Resource Nexus • Policy Analysis • Plan for Phase II GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

13. 2. Great Lakes Energy and Aquatic Resources Nexus Model • Energy and Water Power Simulation Model (Sandia National Lab) • Enhance model with new environmental rules • Develop “What If” Scenarios for future electric power generation • Show ecological tradeoffs associated with power generation scenarios GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

14. Comments? GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

15. Meeting Objectives • Enhance networking and collective thinking among GLEW team members • Examine new information the relationship between power and water in the Great Lakes basin • Refine selected future power generation scenarios • Run analyses for different what if scenarios, evaluate results in real time and modify if needed • Determine which scenarios will be included in project report. GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

16. Updates on Other Project Activities (Day 2) • Policy Analysis • Review New ELPC Draft • Great Lakes Energy and Aquatic Resources Nexus Maps • Team feedback; next steps • Report on the Regional Energy and Aquatic Resource Nexus • Review and approve draft outline • Plan for Phase II • Discuss and evaluate potential activities for next phase GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

29. Great Lakes Future Power Generation Scenarios • Baseline—business as usual • Demand Modifiction • High electricity demand • Low electricity Demand • New fuel and cooling technology mix • Increased renewables • Increased natural gas • No new once through cooling; retrofit portion of existing plants to closed loop or dry cooling • Climate Impacts • Carbon capture GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

30. Baseline Scenario • Future power demand based on EIA projections; maintain current mix of fuel for electric power generation; maintain current mix of power plant cooling GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

31. Demand Modification Scenario • Increased demand from: • a) High penetration of electric hybrid cars • b)Transition of homes to electric heating • c) Increased need for air conditioning and groundwater pumping (for irrigation) due to climate induced warming of region • Decreased electricity demand from • a) Demand side management (scenarios from Eastern Interconnection planning as well as other regional analyses [MISO]); • b) Lower demand for heating due to climate change (IPPC for projected temperature change). V. Tidwell GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

32. Fleet Modification Scenario • Modify fuel mix of future power plant fleet • state RPS targets, EIA projected fleet • modify mix of cooling technology used at current/future power plants (EPA 316b regulation, scenarios from Eastern Interconnection planning as well as other regional analyses [MISO]) • siting of new power plants in relation to energy and water shed boundaries • deployment of carbon capture and sequestration GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

33. Input Variables • Annual electricity demand by NMMR • Fuel mix of future power plant fleet (coal, IGCC, natural gas, oil, nuclear, geothermal, hydroelectric, wind, biofuel, solar (PV,CSP)) • Mix of associated cooling technology with each fuel (open loop, closed loop, air cooled, hybrid) • Policy (316b, carbon capture). Need logic as to which existing power plants would be retrofitted for closed loop cooling (e.g., age, capacity factor). GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

34. Comments? GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

35. Group Challenge • What parameters do we want to set for each of these scenarios? • What mix of fuel source, electric production technology type, cooling technology type and other factors do we put into each scenario? • Which scenarios do we want to formally report on? GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

36. Some Questions/Comments from Yesterday • Is there a potential conflict between the proposed 316(b) rules (which would require new power plants to use closed loop cooling technology, hence potentially increase consumptive use rates) and to the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact that requires a regional notice and review of new or increased consumptive use of 5 million gallons per day or greater average over any 90-day period (by December, 2013)?

37. 316(b) + GLSLRBWRC • Project should analyze which power plants would be affected by the Water Resources Compact: • # of GL power plants that convert to closed loop would if 316b were enacted • #of those plants that would exceed the 5 million gpd or greater average over 90 days

38. Outline for Report on the Great Lakes Energy and Aquatic Resource Nexus • Executive Summary (2 pages) • The E-W Nexus and the P-W Nexus in the Great Lakes Region and Basin (2-3 pages) • Modeling the GLEW Nexus (5 pages) • Future Electric Energy-Water Scenarios for the Great Lakes Region (6-8 pages) • Other Drivers: Discussion & Analysis of Factors Not Modeled (3-5 pages) • Policy Drivers (3-4 pages) • Conclusions (1 page)

39. II. The E-W Nexus and the P-W Nexus in the GL Region and Basin A. Overview of energy (power and fuel) and relationship to water resources B. Power and Water linkages in the region and basin • Discuss results of data and literature reviews • Characterize the region’s water resources in quantity and quality • Describe the region’s energy shed • Characterize the Great Lakes power plant fleet • Describe the relationship between power and water in the Great Lakes basin and energy shed

40. Questions/Comments? • Is the outline for the Phase I summary report complete or is there something else we should include? • For Section II on the overview of the Energy-Water and Power-Water nexuses: • Does this set the stage well for the rest of the report? • Are we missing any key points or topics to highlight?

42. Deliverable 5: Plan for a Follow-up Project • Develop a plan for phase II • Readily modifiable into a funding proposal • Options: • Subregional Analysis and Application • Further Exploration of Outliers and Influencers GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

43. Next GLEW Team Call • February 8, 2011 • still the second Tuesday of the month • 2:00 p.m. EST • Details to be sent via email • Check the wiki! • http://wiki.glin.net/GLEW GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011

44. Core Team Great Lakes Commission Cornell University Sandia National Laboratories Great Lakes Environmental Law Center Environmental Law and Policy Center Advisors Alliance for Water Efficiency Argonne National Laboratories DTE Energy Company Edison Electric Institute Electric Power Research Institute Illinois Dept. of Natural Resources Michigan Public Services Commission New York Power Authority Ontario Power Generation Ontario Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection Recycled Energy Development U.S. Dept. of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory University of Texas, Austin We Energies Wisconsin Dept. of Natural Resources Wisconsin Public Service Commission Thank You GLEW Team Members! GLEW Meeting January 24-25, 2011