Uncertainties in policy development of BwN projects - Is ambiguity more important than content?

1. Uncertainties in policy development of BwN projects-Is ambiguity more important than content? Ronald E. van den Hoek and Marcela Brugnach University of Twente IGS-SENSE Conference 2011 – 20 October 2011 1 1 Title: to modify choose 'View' then 'Heater and footer'

2. Why is uncertainty important for BwN? 1. Introduction– 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions Building in Nature Building with Nature Control the system, reduce uncertainty Use natural system dynamics ≈ accept uncertainty The role of uncertainty fundamentally changes! What does this mean for policy development? 2 22/08/2014

3. What is uncertainty? 1. Introduction– 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions Uncertainty is important for policy development. Policy-makers prefer to be certain before spending money or making decisions Types of uncertainty: Lack of knowledge Unpredictability Ambiguity 3 3

4. 1. Introduction–2. Objectives– 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions Objectives of my PhD research Identify (types of) uncertainties relevant for BwN policy development Assess how uncertainty is evaluated in BwN policy development Identify effective strategies to cope with uncertainty in BwN 4

5. 1. Introduction– 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions Case study: Sand Engine Large-scale sand nourishment (21.5 million m3 of sand) Natural dynamics distribute sand for natural dune development Coastal maintenance New nature and recreational area Innovation and learning 5

6. 1. Introduction– 2. Objectives –3. Case study– 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions Results • Document analysis and interviews • Typical examples of important uncertainties • Potential Sand Engine “project killers” • 3 uncertainties of specific interest for interviewees 22/08/2014

7. Uncertainty about recreational safety (1) 1. Introduction– 2. Objectives –3. Case study– 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions 22/08/2014

8. 1. Introduction– 2. Objectives –3. Case study– 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions Uncertainty about recreational safety (2) • Interviewees vs. opponents • Agree that conditions are unpredictable • Disagree whether area can be kept safe Ambiguity! 22/08/2014

9. Uncertainty about drinking water safety (1) 1. Introduction– 2. Objectives –3. Case study– 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions 22/08/2014

10. 1. Introduction– 2. Objectives –3. Case study– 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions Uncertainty about drinking water safety (2) • Project team vs. drinking water stakeholder • Is Sand Engine a potential risk for fresh water supply? • Stakeholder: big issue and requires study  If not: official complaint, causing a “killer delay”! • Agreement needed within two weeks while parties largely disagree Ambiguity! 22/08/2014

11. Uncertainty about economic attractiveness (1) 1. Introduction– 2. Objectives –3. Case study– 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions 22/08/2014

12. 1. Introduction– 2. Objectives –3. Case study– 4. Results – 5. Conclusions – 6. Questions Uncertainty about economic attractiveness (2)  price/m3 sand is half of normal! • Project team: Sand Engine is an attractive and feasible project • Will constructor say: Sand Engine is too expensive? Anxiety for ambiguity! 22/08/2014

13. Conclusions 1. Introduction– 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions– 6. Questions Building in Nature Building with Nature BwN changes the role of uncertainty in policy development Ambiguity is more important in BwN than uncertainty due to deficit of knowledge 13 22/08/2014

14. 1. Introduction– 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions– 6. Questions Social processes more important than technology “Technically, the Sand Engine is not very exciting. Sand nourishment, the Dutch can do that, right? But other parties as well. There is a lot of expertise… The specificity of this project is its fast development process, cooperation and managing the environment. There are the real dynamics and uncertainties.” 22/08/2014

15. Questions 1. Introduction– 2. Objectives – 3. Case study – 4. Results – 5. Conclusions –6. Questions www.ecoshape.nl Thank you for your attention! Ronald E. van den Hoek University of Twente r.e.vandenhoek@utwente.nl 15 22/08/2014