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Input Datasets for Wide-Area Hydrologic Modeling USGS Earth Resources Observation Systems

Input Datasets for Wide-Area Hydrologic Modeling USGS Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center Sioux Falls South Dakota. U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET). U.S. Agency for International Development.

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Input Datasets for Wide-Area Hydrologic Modeling USGS Earth Resources Observation Systems

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  1. Input Datasets for Wide-Area Hydrologic Modeling USGS Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Data Center Sioux Falls South Dakota U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey

  2. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) U.S. Agency for International Development Foreign Agricultural Service National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S. Geological Survey USAID contractor (Chemonics)

  3. FEWS NET Countries in Africa FEWS NET supports data collection and analysis in 17 African countries: Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger; Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, southern.Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda; Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. On-going USAID restructuring to make FEWS NET a global undertaking

  4. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) GLOBAL REGIONAL NEWU DMU MET NATIONAL CSO MoA NEWU Local Gov’t LOCAL MoA HOUSEHOLD INDIVIDUAL horizontal and vertical collaboration in Southern Africa LEVELS

  5. Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) Monthly food security reports, produced jointly with local institutions

  6. Decision Inputs: • ETA Model Weather Forecast AfricaWeatherHazardsAssessment • Vegetation Index • Rainfall Estimates • WRSI • Soil Water Index • Stream Flow Model • ITCZ Sioux Falls Washington Santa Barbara Participants: NOAA/CPC USGS/EDC NASA/GSFC FEWS NET/ Chemonics UCSB USDA/PECAD Niamey Nairobi Harare edcintl.cr.usgs.gov/adds Weekly Tele-conference www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/briefing.html

  7. Hydroclimatic update on Lower Juba • During the past week, heavy rains were seen in southern Somalia (lower Juba), increasing the risk of probable flooding along the coastal strip in lower Juba. • The week ending October 29 picked up above 200mm for some areas along the Kenya – Somalia border and specifically in the lower parts of Juba (Slide 2) • These rains will improve the moisture conditions and increase the risk of flooding due to the high runoff generated in the area (Slide 3) • High soil moisture is already generated in the area (Slide 4) • The weather forecast calls for high rainfall in the upper catchments of Juba for the coming week (slide 5)

  8. High Runoff anomaly

  9. Key Data Inputs • Daily Rainfall Estimates (RFE) • Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) • Daily Potential Evapo-Transpiration (PET) • Digital Elevation Models (DEM) • Soil and Vegetation Digital Map Data

  10. Satellite-Derived Rainfall (RFE)

  11. Satellite-based Rainfall Estimation • Began in the early 1990 to support crop monitoring • Initially, computed in 10 day accumulations • Since 1997, computation of daily rainfall estimates

  12. Geostationary Satellite Coverage

  13. What the Satellite Gives You • A Meteosat Infra-Red Image every 30 minutes • Received less than 5 minutes after it is acquired • Requires a PDUS System for direct reception

  14. Infrared Images Temp. < 235K Cold Clouds How it is converted to a rainfall estimate • IR Digital Counts converted to Cloud Top Temperatures • Temperature Threshold used to classify cold and warm clouds • Cold Clouds accumulated daily to obtain grids of Cold Cloud Duration (CCD) which approximates equal to rainfall duration

  15. Ground observations for Truthing • Daily rain gauge readings collected and distributed through the global telecommunications system (GTS) • 500-1000 stations per day report in Africa

  16. Deriving the final rainfall estimate Daily Rainfall Estimate = Rainfall Intensity * Duration • TAMSAT: • seasonally variable threshold temperature • Seasonally variable rainfall intensity • NOAA RFE: • constant threshold temperatures • daily variations in intensity computed from gauge data

  17. Current Daily RFE Data Windows

  18. Accessing the data • Africa-wide satellite rainfall estimates computed daily • Archive includes 1998 to present (1995-98 coming soon) • Available for download on the Internet • For current rainfall (less than 14 days old) ftp://edcftp.cr.usgs.gov/pub/edcuser/fewsips/africa/ • For historical rainfall estimates http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/fews/data.html

  19. NESDIS Hydro-Estimator • Began as Auto-Estimator over CONUS • Now global coverage (60S-60N) • Resolution • Temporal: Half-hourly  Inst,1,3,6,24 hour • Spatial: 0.05 degree (4km) • Available: 1330-1430 GMT

  20. IR Input Data • All available geostationary half-hourly IR • Pre-determined Z-R Temperature-Rain Rate regression • Uses 10.7 micrometer brightness cloud top temperature • Instantaneous rain rates found • Relative Humidity, Precipitable Water, and storm growth/decay used to scale rain rates

  21. NASA / NASDAJ TRMM • Global coverage (36S-36N) • Resolution • Temporal: ½ to 2 per day  daily • Spatial: 0.25 degree (20km) • Available: 0600 GMT

  22. TRMM Details • MPA-RT algorithm Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis – Real Time • Inputs: • TRMM PR, TMI • Polar orbiter microwave • Geostationary IR

  23. TRMM Instruments • TRMM Microwave Imager • 85 GHz passive microwave radiometer • 760 km swath width • Horizontal resolution: 5 by 7 km • TRMM Precipitation Radar • 13.8 GHz reflectivities (sfc-20 km) • 215 km swatch width

  24. NOAA/CPC CMORPH • Running for around a year • Global coverage from 60S-60N • Resolution • Spatial: 0.1 degree (8km) • Temporal: ½ hour  Daily • Available @ 1700-1800 GMT

  25. CMORPH Details • Inputs • SSM/I, AMSUB, IR • Uses half-hourly spatial domain to propagate ~1.5-hourly microwave intensity • Now ‘nearly’ operational

  26. Meteosat Second Generation • Currently at the trial stage • Expected to become operational in Sept 2003 • 15 minute images (as opposed to 30 minutes) • Available at national meteorological services

  27. Historical Rainfall Datasets • Collaborative Historical African Rainfall Model (CHARM) • 30 yr rainfall climatology produced by blending global climate model reanalysis with gauge readings and an orographic model • Daily rainfall grids generated for the period 1961-1996 • Used to generate historical time series of flows for establishing return period flows and for forecast interpretation • Dr Chris Funk, chris@geog.ucsb.edu

  28. Evolving comparison with Satellite Estimates • Overlap between CHARM and RFE still too short for the computation of definitive statistics • CHARM are typically smoother in time and space than RFE

  29. Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF)

  30. AFWA Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts • AFWA Mesocale Model, MM5 daily • Forecasts accumulated for 24, 48 and 72 hours • Africa-wide forecasts • Spatial Resolution: • Data Availability: ftp://edcftp.cr.usgs.gov/pub/edcuser/fewsips/africa/

  31. AFWA QPF Data Windows

  32. Sample 3 Day RFE and 3 Day QPF

  33. ETA Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts • NOAA ETA model • Forecasts for 24, 48 and 72 hours • Limited spatial domain for East, West and South Africa • Spatial Resolution: 32 km grids • Data Availability: ftp://edcftp.cr.usgs.gov/pub/edcuser/fewsips/africa/

  34. ETA QPF for East Africa

  35. ETA QPF for West Africa

  36. Summary of Forecasts • Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting is still an evolving field • Fine resolution models at the continental scale may require over 24 hrs to complete a daily forecast run • Existing continental scale models may fail to capture important events or adequately represent local conditions • Research continues on ways to create hydrologic forecast from qualitative forecasts

  37. Potential Evapo-Transpiration (PET)

  38. Sample global daily PET grid

  39. Potential Evapo-Transpiration (PET) • Computed daily from Global Data Assimulation System (GDAS) data (generated every 6hrs) • Penman Monteith Equation solved to obtain PET values • Spatial domain: Global • Spatial Resolution: 100 km grids (1o) • Data Availability: ftp://edcftp.cr.usgs.gov/pub/edcuser/fewsips/africa/ • Contact: Ronald Lietzow, lietzow@usgs.gov

  40. Topography, Soil and Vegetation data

  41. Remotely sensed parameters allow basin-wide coverage USGS Global HYDRO1K Datasets

  42. USGS HYDRO1K Database (http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/gtopo30/)

  43. Flow Direction Flow Accumulation Flow Length Hill Length Slope Subbasins and Rivers Subbasin Connectivity Derivatives of USGS 1 km DEM Derived by GIS-based Terrain Analysis

  44. 1:5 000 000 1:5 000 000 FAO Digital Soil Map of the World (http://www.fao.org/ag/AGL/agll/dsmw.stm) Data not available for download. CDROM must be purchased from FAO • Water Holding Capacity • Soil Depth • Hydraulic Conductivity • Soil Texture

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